wthrmn654 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Sure looks like the Monday storm keeps shifting north on some of the models runs recently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 18z 00z Same time frame... #pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Not the same one as 18Z - BUT this is why you ignore the GFS past 84 hours - wild swings from one run to the next beyond that............Yeah, it also just did it with Monday's "storm", it's always risky looking at models beyond 3-4 days but lately the GFS is having some crazy swings even in the short to mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GGEM has a snow to rain event for next Friday. It doesn't show the 1st wave like the GFS at 129 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I thought these models got a YUGE upgrade last year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GGEM has a snow to rain event for next Friday. It doesn't show the 1st wave like the GFS at 129 hours. The snows always a week away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The snows always a week away This storm is Friday into Saturday. I have no clue what the GFS drank tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This storm is Friday into Saturday. I have no clue what the GFS drank tonight. I know, that would be a week away..... And the GFS is showing The same thing the models have been showing all year... Long range storms, only to amount to nothing, if 5-10 day storms were to verify, I'd have about 50+ inches... I refuse to even take the models slightly serious outside of 72-96 hrs this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I thought these models got a YUGE upgrade last year... Yea, they did. Especially the GFS. But you can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still just a pig. Dtk has more info, but the GFS carries over biases and issues it's had since it's inception in its base code. I don't know how they think they can run it in one hour time sequences to day ten. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I know, that would be a week away..... And the GFS is showing The same thing the models have been showing all year... Long range storms, only to amount to nothing, if 5-10 day storms were to verify, I'd have about 50+ inches... I refuse to even take the models slightly serious outside of 72-96 hrs this year Every model has the storm for next Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Every model has the storm for next Friday Dude, it's 7 days out... Here's January 17th,18th storm which showed up 7 days out too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Dude, it's 7 days out... Here's January 17th,18th storm which showed up 7 days out too Okay and? This is a weather board and we are allowed to track storms on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Too funny how GFS took away next Friday's storm, but now shows snow Wednesday night. Although I certainly would gladly take what this GFS run is showing for Wednesday night. This winter has been so miserable that a 2 inch snow event would seem like a big deal. But I'm guessing the next run will take away the Wednesday night snow and bring back Friday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Okay and? This is a weather board and we are allowed to track storms on here. Nobody said you couldn't track it, I'm pointing out the obvious, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 20-30 inches of wet snow would be crazy. Lots of roof collapses injures deaths The snowicane up here was 2-3' of wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GFS, continuing the Lucy with the football torture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The EPS still has the late week storm and continues to remain the most consistent. A little South, looks like a Mid Atlantic special this run? Small shift for 7÷ days out imo. Im not sold on this storm nor am I completely vested in it at this point but I would urge caution at this range to those folks using the OP models verbatim each and every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 For you guys that like to live and die with each OP model run for progs 7+ days out, the Navgem looks like the EPS and the JMA, while probably having temp issues verbatim, is an absolute beast coming out of the deep South/Gulf and heading NE on that model's last panel. Too early to be locking this one up OR writing it off. Wild swings coming this week. And just to add, the models struggle during pattern shifts. We are going from a severe neg nao to a relaxed phase, even slightly positive. This is a huge atmospheric change for the models to handle at this range with accuracy. As ive said before, we sometimes get a good storm to pop during an nao transition like this (Archambeault event). Stay vigilant on this threat for now...,dont lock it up or toss it all together is what I am suggesting. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Okay and? This is a weather board and we are allowed to track storms on here. You can. But you have to be somewhat realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Overnight Euro splits the PV and both 30 and 50 mb from d8 through d10. VERY impressive, We have seen them split before, but not for such a duration, which supports the data presented showing this as being the warmest push yet. Warming signal at 10mb also continues to improve with good PV elongation and warming getting stronger as the run ended. Remember the GFS did have a 10mb split in the same time frame last night, so this is real and this is show time. IMO, if a split is going to occur, it will occur between January 25-30, which is in line with estimates put forth by, for example, our own Isotherm. Dare I say it, but pretty big improvement on the Strat front over the past couple of days of runs. Still skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Around 28/51 (~55%) EPS members give NYC at least 2", give or take a couple which are close. Around 12/51 (~25%) EPS members give NYC at least 6", give or take a couple which are close. No one should complain about those numbers 8-10 days out. Still a big spread both with timing and track. GEPS looked very impressive IMO. GEFS...not so much, but much rather work with a progressive solution than a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 For you guys that like to live and die with each OP model run for progs 7+ days out, the Navgem looks like the EPS and the JMA, while probably having temp issues verbatim, is an absolute beast coming out of the deep South/Gulf and heading NE on that model's last panel. No. 0z navgem was OTS 18z navgem was likely too progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 0z navgem was OTS nvg10.prp.180.namer-3.gif 18z navgem was too progressive nvg10.prp.180.namer-4.gif Yep, was looking at the EPS in my browser, thought I clicked Navgem, lol. Was wondering why they looked like carbon copies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Around 28/51 (~55%) EPS members give NYC at least 2", give or take a couple which are close. Around 12/51 (~25%) EPS members give NYC at least 6", give or take a couple which are close. No one should complain about those numbers 8-10 days out. Still a big spread both with timing and track. GEPS looked very impressive IMO. GEFS...not so much, but much rather work with a progressive solution than a cutter. Agreed......we rarely recover from a LR cutter prog for some reason. It happens from time-to-time but the shift from cutter to coastal SECS+ is unique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The snowicane up here was 2-3' of wet snow. It was 2' for Queens and west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It was 2' for Queens and west as well. Paper reported 8 in Woodbridge ( across from SI in NJ ) but others here in the area said the official tally 13 inches. We didn't get the brunt of any storm that year but had decent amounts for all but 2/6/10 where we had 3-4 and some in the area of SI reported 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 You can. But you have to be somewhat realistic. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This is the Banter thread, it should be a safe haven for wish-casting. I don't get all the grumpiness, if someone wants to be positive beyond reason in a banter thread, he should be allowed to, it's at least as weather related as talking about the Mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This is the Banter thread, it should be a safe haven for wish-casting. I don't get all the grumpiness, if someone wants to be positive beyond reason in a banter thread, he should be allowed to, it's at least as weather related as talking about the Mets. the reason for the grumpiness is obvious - it's January 15th and total snowfall in most of the metro is a Trace - oh by the way - MET winter is 1/2 over at the end of the day........one positive is the second half will have a hard time being as bad as the first half.....MAYBE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Overnight Euro splits the PV and both 30 and 50 mb from d8 through d10. VERY impressive, We have seen them split before, but not for such a duration, which supports the data presented showing this as being the warmest push yet. Warming signal at 10mb also continues to improve with good PV elongation and warming getting stronger as the run ended. Remember the GFS did have a 10mb split in the same time frame last night, so this is real and this is show time. IMO, if a split is going to occur, it will occur between January 25-30, which is in line with estimates put forth by, for example, our own Isotherm. Dare I say it, but pretty big improvement on the Strat front over the past couple of days of runs. Still skeptical. The jig is up with the stratospheric polar vortex. HM, one of the most knowledgeable meteorologists out there, and someone who was optimistic for a SSW and polar vortex split just tweeted "cringe worthy trends this week" in regard to the stratospheric polar vortex. We are beating a dead horse with it, still zero signs of warming and we are 2 weeks away from February. Time to call it a day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.