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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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Not the same one as 18Z - BUT this is why you ignore the GFS past 84 hours - wild swings from one run to the next beyond that............

Yeah, it also just did it with Monday's "storm", it's always risky looking at models beyond 3-4 days but lately the GFS is having some crazy swings even in the short to mid range.
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This storm is Friday into Saturday. I have no clue what the GFS drank tonight.

I know, that would be a week away..... And the GFS is showing The same thing the models have been showing all year... Long range storms, only to amount to nothing, if 5-10 day storms were to verify, I'd have about 50+ inches... I refuse to even take the models slightly serious outside of 72-96 hrs this year

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I thought these models got a YUGE upgrade last year...

Yea, they did. Especially the GFS.

But you can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still just a pig. Dtk has more info, but the GFS carries over biases and issues it's had since it's inception in its base code.

I don't know how they think they can run it in one hour time sequences to day ten.

Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk

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I know, that would be a week away..... And the GFS is showing The same thing the models have been showing all year... Long range storms, only to amount to nothing, if 5-10 day storms were to verify, I'd have about 50+ inches... I refuse to even take the models slightly serious outside of 72-96 hrs this year

Every model has the storm for next Friday

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Too funny how GFS took away next Friday's storm, but now shows snow Wednesday night. Although I certainly would gladly take what this GFS run is showing for Wednesday night. This winter has been so miserable that a 2 inch snow event would seem like a big deal. But I'm guessing the next run will take away the Wednesday night snow and bring back Friday's storm. 

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The EPS still has the late week storm and continues to remain the most consistent. A little South, looks like a Mid Atlantic special this run? Small shift for 7÷ days out imo. Im not sold on this storm nor am I completely vested in it at this point but I would urge caution at this range to those folks using the OP models verbatim each and every run.

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For you guys that like to live and die with each OP model run for progs 7+ days out, the Navgem looks like the EPS and the JMA, while probably having temp issues verbatim, is an absolute beast coming out of the deep South/Gulf and heading NE on that model's last panel. Too early to be locking this one up OR writing it off. Wild swings coming this week.

And just to add, the models struggle during pattern shifts. We are going from a severe neg nao to a relaxed phase, even slightly positive. This is a huge atmospheric change for the models to handle at this range with accuracy. As ive said before, we sometimes get a good storm to pop during an nao transition like this (Archambeault event). Stay vigilant on this threat for now...,dont lock it up or toss it all together is what I am suggesting.

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Overnight Euro splits the PV and both 30 and 50 mb from d8 through d10. VERY impressive, We have seen them split before, but not for such a duration, which supports the data presented showing this as being the warmest push yet. Warming signal at 10mb also continues to improve with good PV elongation and warming getting stronger as the run ended. Remember the GFS did have a 10mb split in the same time frame last night, so this is real and this is show time. IMO, if a split is going to occur, it will occur between January 25-30, which is in line with estimates put forth by, for example, our own Isotherm.

 

Dare I say it, but pretty big improvement on the Strat front over the past couple of days of runs. Still skeptical.

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Around 28/51 (~55%) EPS members give NYC at least 2", give or take a couple which are close.

Around 12/51 (~25%) EPS members give NYC at least 6", give or take a couple which are close.

 

No one should complain about those numbers 8-10 days out. Still a big spread both with timing and track.

 

 

GEPS looked very impressive IMO. GEFS...not so much, but much rather work with a progressive solution than a cutter.

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For you guys that like to live and die with each OP model run for progs 7+ days out, the Navgem looks like the EPS and the JMA, while probably having temp issues verbatim, is an absolute beast coming out of the deep South/Gulf and heading NE on that model's last panel.

No.

 

0z navgem was OTS

 

post-4037-0-81586300-1452850995_thumb.gi

 

18z navgem was likely too progressive

 

post-4037-0-47248800-1452851097_thumb.gi

post-4037-0-32104800-1452851052_thumb.gi

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Around 28/51 (~55%) EPS members give NYC at least 2", give or take a couple which are close.

Around 12/51 (~25%) EPS members give NYC at least 6", give or take a couple which are close.

 

No one should complain about those numbers 8-10 days out. Still a big spread both with timing and track.

 

 

GEPS looked very impressive IMO. GEFS...not so much, but much rather work with a progressive solution than a cutter.

 

Agreed......we rarely recover from a LR cutter prog for some reason. It happens from time-to-time but the shift from cutter to coastal SECS+ is unique.

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It was 2' for Queens and west as well.

Paper reported 8 in Woodbridge ( across from SI in NJ ) but others here in the area said the official tally 13 inches. We didn't get the brunt of any storm that year but had decent amounts for all but 2/6/10 where we had 3-4 and some in the area of SI reported 7.

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This is the Banter thread, it should be a safe haven for wish-casting. I don't get all the grumpiness, if someone wants to be positive beyond reason in a banter thread, he should be allowed to, it's at least as weather related as talking about the Mets.

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This is the Banter thread, it should be a safe haven for wish-casting. I don't get all the grumpiness, if someone wants to be positive beyond reason in a banter thread, he should be allowed to, it's at least as weather related as talking about the Mets.

the reason for the grumpiness is obvious - it's January 15th and total snowfall in most of the metro is a Trace - oh by the way - MET winter is 1/2 over at the end of the day........one positive is the second half will have a hard time being as bad as the first half.....MAYBE

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Overnight Euro splits the PV and both 30 and 50 mb from d8 through d10. VERY impressive, We have seen them split before, but not for such a duration, which supports the data presented showing this as being the warmest push yet. Warming signal at 10mb also continues to improve with good PV elongation and warming getting stronger as the run ended. Remember the GFS did have a 10mb split in the same time frame last night, so this is real and this is show time. IMO, if a split is going to occur, it will occur between January 25-30, which is in line with estimates put forth by, for example, our own Isotherm.

Dare I say it, but pretty big improvement on the Strat front over the past couple of days of runs. Still skeptical.

The jig is up with the stratospheric polar vortex. HM, one of the most knowledgeable meteorologists out there, and someone who was optimistic for a SSW and polar vortex split just tweeted "cringe worthy trends this week" in regard to the stratospheric polar vortex. We are beating a dead horse with it, still zero signs of warming and we are 2 weeks away from February. Time to call it a day....
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