PaEasternWX Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 On this image the GFS shows a 1019mb low. How can that be a low. I thought generally anything above 1015mb is considered a high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 "right where we want it at this stage" Lol. Always loved that made up crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 On this image the GFS shows a 1019mb low. How can that be a low. I thought generally anything above 1015mb is considered a high pressure. The threshold is actually 1019.5 mb. Lol. Always loved that made up crap. I mean, if you can identify a recognized model bias, then you should obviously account for that in your forecasts... but the "snow is more likely when models don't show it" business is just appalling bad logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 They are going to have to put up some seriously high railings on area bridges if the day 9 storm slams the lower middle Atlantic and we smoke cirrus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 A lot of people who depend on snow are going to suffer if this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 A lot of people who depend on snow are going to suffer if this continues. Yeah... Me.... Lucky I have a side business and a second job during the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 A lot of people who depend on snow are going to suffer if this continues.Its one thing for us plow guys here, its another for the communities in ny,vt, and nh the rely on snow to get people into there areas. Without snow they dont have any money coming in. Bad news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The main difference between today's GFS runs and yesterday's is that the Jan 16th noreaster is stronger and the Miller A fails to bomb out in the Gulf. The secondary low slows down as it bombs out, enough to slightly hold back the energy in the Gulf. Sorry, but I have a hard time believing that a secondary low is going to to bomb out without any fresh, cold air. It never even phases. I also have a hard time believing that kind of energy in the Gulf is simply going to fizzle out during a Super El Nino with juiced up STJ. During an El Nino year, you'd expect this setup would steer any low pressure up Appalachians with rain for us. I think the models are struggling with the Jan 16th storm, so I wouldn't completely rule out the Miller A just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Just look at the 250 mb: If that low pressure strengthens even a little bit more between now and this weekend, it's going up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Its one thing for us plow guys here, its another for the communities in ny,vt, and nh the rely on snow to get people into there areas. Without snow they dont have any money coming in. Bad news Pretty much everyone in the NE will struggle in some way or another. At least it's cold enough for ski resorts to make snow but those who depend on income/extra income for other services ain't gonna be too happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Its one thing for us plow guys here, its another for the communities in ny,vt, and nh the rely on snow to get people into there areas. Without snow they dont have any money coming in. Bad news Used to go through the same stuff in the fishing business, which was also quite weather dependent and spurred my interest in weather. Any wind from the south or southeast was a killer, and northeast was too dangerous....I finally gave up on it but one guy stuck it out and he is on Wicked Tuna these days. Maybe we can make a reality show with snow weenies....talking with their therapists in a snowless winter while gobsmacked viewers look on incredulously as grown men cry over a lack of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Park up to 38. Tomorrow alone will erase today's and yesterday's negative departures. i honestly wish we were always above average during the winter and below average during the summer just give us 3 blizzards a year and I'll be happy. Chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 i honestly wish we were always above average during the winter and below average during the summer just give us 3 blizzards a year and I'll be happy. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 i honestly wish we were always above average during the winter and below average during the summer just give us 3 blizzards a year and I'll be happy. Chris There's a magical place called San Diego were it's always 70 and a 4 hour drive from the most epic blizzard you have ever seen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On day 9 threat. .I think ..at this stage you never want to be at bullseye..let's see where we stand by monday or tue oz suite ..baby steps at this stage. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 "right where we want it at this stage" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On day 9 threat. .I think ..at this stage you never want to be at bullseye..let's see where we stand by monday or tue oz suite ..baby steps at this stage. . I always want to be in the bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I always want to be in the bullseye I thought that means the next run will be a cutter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I always want to be in the bullseyelol me too but 90% of Time 9 days out and you in bullseye won't stay that way imo. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'll make a deal with you Mother Nature. Just one storm this winter but make it an all-time blizzard. A two-day storm complete with thunder and lightning + 2 - 3 feet of wet snow,with a bullseye of 40 inches somewhere in the metro area. Do that and I won't complain if you hit us with 20 consecutive days of 90 degrees in the summer. This has been a message from a New Yorker who misses and loves snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'll make a deal with you Mother Nature. Just one storm this winter but make it an all-time blizzard. A two-day storm complete with thunder and lightning + 2 - 3 feet of wet snow,with a bullseye of 40 inches somewhere in the metro area. Do that and I won't complain if you hit us with 20 consecutive days of 90 degrees in the summer. This has been a message from a New Yorker who misses and loves snow Wet snow would mean temps in the lower 30s. I rather low to mid 20s. Better snow ratio, easier to plow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Wet snow would mean temps in the lower 30s. I rather low to mid 20s. Better snow ratio, easier to plow.If you can arrange that 20 -30 inches I'll just have to accept dry snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 If you can arrange that 20 -30 inches I'll just have to accept dry snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 On day 9 threat. .I think ..at this stage you never want to be at bullseye..let's see where we stand by monday or tue oz suite ..baby steps at this stage. . Don't look at the 0z gfs from tonight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Old scratch is back to his tricks throwing new wrinkles into the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Don't look at the 0z gfs from tonight lolThe strom at 150 is the same one? If so that's a pretty big shift in timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This will be known as the 7 days away winter, every storm is 7 days away.... Then POOF!!!!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The strom at 150 is the same one? If so that's a pretty big shift in timing. Not the same one as 18Z - BUT this is why you ignore the GFS past 84 hours - wild swings from one run to the next beyond that............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This will be known as the 7 days away winter, every storm is 7 days away.... Then POOF!!!!! Lolmodeks have been awful from more than 5 days out...hell the euro ensembles have been predicting snow all winter and the end result is zip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The strom at 150 is the same one? If so that's a pretty big shift in timing. Nope same time frame, 18z didn't even have a low forming whatsoever, these models are so shotty, their impossible to accurately use, outside 48hrs, even then they're not accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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