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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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My biggest concern right now is the bridge jumpers when they see the 240 hour euro because while it looks transient to me and probably will only last about five days I don't think anybody can really be comforted this winter

I'm with you SnowGoose69.  Time has already passed with little snowfall, near future is wet, time is ticking and the persistence weather model may rule the roost this winter season.  I would add a little hope that a surprise in February or March is always possible but you guys have a lot of ground to makeup.

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Every winter starts out with 8-9 day threats. The key is getting something that survives the under 120 hr test.

I don''t really get interested until the OP Euro and EPS have it in the 72-120 hr range.

True but lets be blunt, with so many highly energetic winters where we averaged 39 inches for past decade( 10-11 inches above our overall averages) this winter is definetly a test of the sanest snow lover's wits. Keep in mind we had a back loaded 50 inches last year and we had chances for MUCH more ( Juno being a perfect example) . But this year we have a dearth of even chances let alone actual snow. I havent seen a year like since winter of 2001-2002, NOT a good memory, think we got a 3.5 inches that year.

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Eps looks good for next weekend. It also moved up to day 8-9.

Euro OP is an extreme outlier. I have more faith in the EPS at this range. A good portion of guidance is showing similar solutions which is encouraging, yet sort of strange at the same time given the range. Definitely bears watching for now, but not worth losing sleep over at this point either.
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Every winter starts out with 8-9 day threats. The key is getting something that survives the under 120 hr test.

I don''t really get interested until the OP Euro and EPS have it in the 72-120 hr range.

 

Look at the ridge developing in Asia D 12 -15 /

We will pump the ridge in the E Jan 25- Feb 5 . That looks like a 10 day break , so this one better work ..... :yikes:

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Euro OP is an extreme outlier. I have more faith in the EPS at this range. A good portion of guidance is showing similar solutions which is encouraging, yet sort of strange at the same time given the range. Definitely bears watching for now, but not worth losing sleep over at this point either.

I will continue to stay up for the Euro :sled:

 

this winter has ratter written all over it. the ensembles are not looking good toward feb

I guess it's winter cancel then :whistle:

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this winter has ratter written all over it. the ensembles are not looking good toward feb

Yeah they also looked awful 12-13 days back for Monday and Tuesday and we are gonna be freezing our asses off. So far this has behaved nothing like 97/98 which leads me to believe February is going to at worst be slightly above normal using niño climo. I still think NYC sees 12-20 inches this winter and no doubt some of it is in March

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The good news with the 0z parallel that I just got to see is that it doesn't seem to

suffer from the hanging energy back problem like the old OP. The bad news is that

it shoots the gap between the banana high is further north than the EPS mean.

But it's day 8-9 so it's still in fantasyland anyway.

So what you're saying is the banana splits? :-)
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For us, yes, verbatim. However it is a MECS for part of the Southern Mid Atlantic. Still a pretty strong storm signal for someone on the EC if you ask me.

Ouch!!!  This hurts:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016011418&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=432

 

It hurts to be in love (again), when the only snowstorm you love turns out to be a 'fish storm'  --- but dig that wasted cold air.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016011418&fh=336&xpos=0&ypos=576

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