WaPo Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 For the bridge jumpers over the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Sunday/Monday storm is dead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Sunday/Monday storm is dead?was it ever really a threat?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Sunday/Monday storm is dead? Unless you count flurries to lolipops of 1-2 in. a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 EURO TO GFS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igeQ7mLZOnI euro flipped again i see. it sucks just like the rest of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Sad news, oldest weather observer from bridgehampton has died. He was 103 years old. https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1201223009907012&id=177148895647767 That is sad news. For the past couple seasons the Upton NWS would put up a little banner on the homepage in his honor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 You have to love that run of the op Euro, fast flow the problem all winter and then when we need something to eject fast it cuts offEps looks good for next weekend. It also moved up to day 8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 My biggest concern right now is the bridge jumpers when they see the 240 hour euro because while it looks transient to me and probably will only last about five days I don't think anybody can really be comforted this winter I'm with you SnowGoose69. Time has already passed with little snowfall, near future is wet, time is ticking and the persistence weather model may rule the roost this winter season. I would add a little hope that a surprise in February or March is always possible but you guys have a lot of ground to makeup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Here we go again with yet another day 9/10 "threat". This is like the movie Groundhog Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 first big snows here last year were not until the 25th. We've still got some time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Every winter starts out with 8-9 day threats. The key is getting something that survives the under 120 hr test. I don''t really get interested until the OP Euro and EPS have it in the 72-120 hr range. True but lets be blunt, with so many highly energetic winters where we averaged 39 inches for past decade( 10-11 inches above our overall averages) this winter is definetly a test of the sanest snow lover's wits. Keep in mind we had a back loaded 50 inches last year and we had chances for MUCH more ( Juno being a perfect example) . But this year we have a dearth of even chances let alone actual snow. I havent seen a year like since winter of 2001-2002, NOT a good memory, think we got a 3.5 inches that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Eps looks good for next weekend. It also moved up to day 8-9.Euro OP is an extreme outlier. I have more faith in the EPS at this range. A good portion of guidance is showing similar solutions which is encouraging, yet sort of strange at the same time given the range. Definitely bears watching for now, but not worth losing sleep over at this point either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 first big snows here last year were not until the 25th. We've still got some time That is true actually, but even still last Winter was better up till now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 this winter has ratter written all over it. the ensembles are not looking good toward feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Every winter starts out with 8-9 day threats. The key is getting something that survives the under 120 hr test. I don''t really get interested until the OP Euro and EPS have it in the 72-120 hr range. Look at the ridge developing in Asia D 12 -15 / We will pump the ridge in the E Jan 25- Feb 5 . That looks like a 10 day break , so this one better work ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 http://www.savelsp.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Euro OP is an extreme outlier. I have more faith in the EPS at this range. A good portion of guidance is showing similar solutions which is encouraging, yet sort of strange at the same time given the range. Definitely bears watching for now, but not worth losing sleep over at this point either. I will continue to stay up for the Euro this winter has ratter written all over it. the ensembles are not looking good toward feb I guess it's winter cancel then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Bring on spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So two week "winter" between springs lol Do we call this our spring break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Look at the ridge developing in Asia D 12 -15 / We will pump the ridge in the E Jan 25- Feb 5 . That looks like a 10 day break , so this one better work ..... Wow the peak of our snow climatology shot. Not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 http://www.savelsp.org/ Signed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Wow the peak of our snow climatology shot. Not good at all. Pitchers and catchers in 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 this winter has ratter written all over it. the ensembles are not looking good toward feb Yeah they also looked awful 12-13 days back for Monday and Tuesday and we are gonna be freezing our asses off. So far this has behaved nothing like 97/98 which leads me to believe February is going to at worst be slightly above normal using niño climo. I still think NYC sees 12-20 inches this winter and no doubt some of it is in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 GFS is OTS on the day 9 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The good news with the 0z parallel that I just got to see is that it doesn't seem to suffer from the hanging energy back problem like the old OP. The bad news is that it shoots the gap between the banana high is further north than the EPS mean. But it's day 8-9 so it's still in fantasyland anyway. So what you're saying is the banana splits? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 GFS is OTS on the day 9 threat.For us, yes, verbatim. However it is a MECS for part of the Southern Mid Atlantic. Still a pretty strong storm signal for someone on the EC if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 For us, yes, verbatim. However it is a MECS for part of the Southern Mid Atlantic. Still a pretty strong storm signal for someone on the EC if you ask me. "right where we want it at this stage" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Signed Excellent. I worked with that group and currently with another on the same issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The GFS has some serious cold in fantasy rage (past 300 hours) and while it means absolutely nothing, it would be pretty funny to see that when everyone expects a warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 For us, yes, verbatim. However it is a MECS for part of the Southern Mid Atlantic. Still a pretty strong storm signal for someone on the EC if you ask me. Ouch!!! This hurts: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016011418&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=432 It hurts to be in love (again), when the only snowstorm you love turns out to be a 'fish storm' --- but dig that wasted cold air. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016011418&fh=336&xpos=0&ypos=576 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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