wthrmn654 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Flurries. Enjoy Yep. Got a good coating this morning. Enough to bring out salt trucks. Was nice to see snow flying through the air again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Flurries. Enjoy At best. Luckily Boston doesn't cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'll take the 200 HR GFS for a thousand dollars please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Actually, low forms Monday into Tuesday. Countdown until you get 5 ppd 5...4...3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'll take the 200 HR GFS for a thousand dollars please... Yup, at half mast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 GFS looks great, it only means something if the euro is in the ballpark not 1000 miles west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Yup, at half mast Too bad it's so far away. Well, at least this morning I was able to wake up to just under an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Too bad it's so far away. Well, at least this morning I was able to wake up to just under an inch of snow. The 12z RGEM is mildly interesting for late tomorrow night up our way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 It looks like Sunday night into Monday most here will see some light snow . As SLP stays well off shore there is a mid level disturbance will be heading through the region. Some moisture should get captured and an IVT could develop for a lucky few . The feature becomes more evident once into New England but as it stands now there is a chance that feature sets up over a small area before lifting N . For the rest of us there is the chance of light snow falling through -12 air at 850. So there may be a few areas that pick up 1 to 2. I'm leaving for Vermont tomorrow afternoon under the basis that it is not going to snow in the city. If it snows more then an inch I need to be in the city for snow removal. I was under the assumption that this threat was dead. Give me your honest % chance of greater then an inch falling in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The 12z RGEM is mildly interesting for late tomorrow night up our way Yeah, maybe we can get in on some mixing with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 0z euro is stuck in the mud in Oklahoma in the same time frame the 12z GFS is making an east coast HECS, fun times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'm leaving for Vermont tomorrow afternoon under the basis that it is not going to snow in the city. If it snows more then an inch I need to be in the city for snow removal. I was under the assumption that this threat was dead. Give me your honest % chance of greater then an inch falling in the city. <5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 0z euro is stuck in the mud in Oklahoma in the same time frame the 12z GFS is making an east coast HECS, fun times HECS? Verbatim it's like an 8-12" storm with lollies to 18". It's a good storm but I wouldn't label it historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'm leaving for Vermont tomorrow afternoon under the basis that it is not going to snow in the city. If it snows more then an inch I need to be in the city for snow removal. I was under the assumption that this threat was dead. Give me your honest % chance of greater then an inch falling in the city. There will be an IVT that heads into SNE. There is some bending of the isobars back towards LI before it heads N . There's probably instability light snow around Sunday night , right now I would go , any accumulation will be light and fluffy and would blow away or melt Monday AM once the sun comes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 HECS? Verbatim it's like an 8-12" storm with lollies to 18". It's a good storm but I wouldn't label it historic. Meh the disney map is up in the MA forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 There will be an IVT that heads into SNE. There is some bending of the isobars back towards LI before it heads N . There's probably instability light snow around Sunday night , right now I would go , any accumulation will be light and fluffy and would blow away or melt Monday AM once the sun comes up. Ok good. If it's not going to be real deal snow it's not worth the couple hours I would get for salting. I'm still on your side with a good (possibly great) February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Ok good. If it's not going to be real deal snow it's not worth the couple hours I would get for salting. I'm still on your side with a good (possibly great) Februarymy name is Chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 my name is Chris It was measurable before the 22nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 It's the first since Alice (December 1954-January 1955). From the NHC: #Alex is the first January #hurricane to form since 1938 and the first to occur in this month since Alice of 1955. Always seeing something rare nowadays. Strongest January hurricane and only the 2nd to form in January that poses a significant threat to the Azores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The Euro improved for any possibly threat for Sunday/Monday. Not quite, but the southern stream energy had a lot more interaction with the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The Euro improved for any possibly threat for Sunday/Monday. Not quite, but the southern stream energy had a lot more interaction with the PV. So this is for the time frame of the snow storm the GFS has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So this is for the time frame of the snow storm the GFS has? I don't have access to the euro op where I'm at but I'm assuming it is still slow ejecting the energy out of the west/southwest again which is a known bias of that model. Best to use the EPS when they come out later which have been signaling the Jan 22-23 even the past several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 12z euro is slow warm and decidedly not snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 12z euro is slow warm and decidedly not snowy Doctor No has spoken, lol. I will wait for the EPS at this range however. Expectations are tempered. If we still are seeing a storm come 12z Sunday suite, then its time to track :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 You have to love that run of the op Euro, fast flow the problem all winter and then when we need something to eject fast it cuts off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Doctor No has spoken, lol. I will wait for the EPS at this range however. Expectations are tempered. If we still are seeing a storm come 12z Sunday suite, then its time to track :-)Yeah, at this range you just look for an overall active pattern, for now we can focus on the all the more imminent threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I would like to see how the new parallel handles it, but it hasn't updated for a couple of days. The EPS at 0z didn't hang the low back like to old OP. It looked like the old OP was the outlier among the ensembles. That was not the typical Euro bias either on the 12Z run, that was simply an overdig that then got caught and cutoff to an extent. My guess is this system ejects much faster in the end, still no guarantee that ends up as a snowy scenario although its hard to believe it does not at least start as snow everywhere if something comes out before 170 hours with that high in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Sad news, oldest weather observer from bridgehampton has died. He was 103 years old. https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1201223009907012&id=177148895647767 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=NewYork&mod=gfs&run=12&var=prcp〈=en&map=us Nice to look at the chart, but would better to be able to make some snowballs from it. Are the projected MJO phase and teleconnections in line with this outcome? I think the CMC has something at this time too, but not the 0Z Euro.* I will answer this myself. Near the 23rd. MJO strong going from Phase 1 to 2. Not certain if this is good/bad in Jan. for storms. AO and NAO are near the neutral zone, going from - to +, and this is Very Good. PNA weakening from strong positive, Good I think. *12Z Euro has no phasing and is much warmer than CMC and GFS at the key time frame, with cold air going bye-bye. (withdrawal symptoms) into ne Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 My biggest concern right now is the bridge jumpers when they see the 240 hour euro because while it looks transient to me and probably will only last about five days I don't think anybody can really be comforted this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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