Met Winter Banter

[Rjay]

0.0 this morning

[NittanyWx]

It's not only Cosgrove that's talking about SSW. It's other social media meteorologists also.

I pay zero attention to social mediarologists.

[BxEngine]

0.0 this morning

Thanks Wormer.

About 1/2" here.

[MJO812]

Is a dusting hard to ask for this winter? So far this winter, I have seen snowflakes mixing with sleet. Hoping for a turnaround like last winter. El Nino winters are usually late to the party.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

I pay zero attention to social mediarologists.

I see what you did there.

[BxWeatherwatcher]

Is a dusting hard to ask for this winter? So far this winter, I have seen snowflakes mixing with sleet. Hoping for a turnaround like last winter. El Nino winters are usually late to the party.

that sucks bro,up here in the bronx the dusting is still around.looks like winter just enough now lol..although there might be a low chance of more snow flurries and showers later on today.

[MJO812]

JB thinks that a low will form along the arctic front near the coast on Sunday into Monday as it comes through. Euro is showing that.

[snowman19]

Classic stuff, thanks Warmy. So based on this post, you're going with departures similar to December for February? At least +10 right? Put some numbers out there.

Without an SSW, the effects of which would be felt much more immediately than I think you realize (within 2 weeks), I think Feb is +2 with normal snow since there is still the active STJ. Think March would be a lost cause in this scenario as the days get longer.

With a SSW, if guess Feb would be -2 with a persistent -AO, which would last well into March. Both months would be above normal snow and potentially quite a bit above.

Until the Euro jumps on board, will go with the former scenario, which is still very respectable. Tropical forcing will continue out by the dateline as the now more west-based Nino gradually weakens over Feb and March. So, while PAC air could certainly flood the conus, the NPAC low should remain predominantly south of the Aleutians and I doubt we see anything ugly like December.

For everyone else, understand I am not giving up on Winter, just the belief that an almighty SSW will save us from the clear El Niño driven PAC dominated pattern we have seen so far. I believe we will see accumulating snow in February either way since this is a basin-wide event. And because it would be unprecedented for us not to see any accumulating snow.

You must have serious reading comprehension problems. Nowhere in that post did I say December like warmth.

[IsentropicLift]

Is a dusting hard to ask for this winter? So far this winter, I have seen snowflakes mixing with sleet. Hoping for a turnaround like last winter. El Nino winters are usually late to the party.

Half inch here with everything covered. 

[donsutherland1]

This has been covered by a few already, but the first image was just simply the daily temp anomalies on the ESRL reanalysis site.

 

The second I cannot take credit for...that was good old fashioned analog work done by a colleague of mine.

Thanks. This is helpful.

[donsutherland1]

I've made my thoughts clear on why I thought that Arctic blocking took place.  Largely MJO induced, with contributions from a crazy anomalous Kara Sea high.  If you're relying on the SSW for the goods as far as further blocking goes, you need to wait (my opinion).  They (SSW's) do not have an instantaneous effect on the troposphere...there's a physical process that must take place with a warming event like this.  Even then, it's not a given it delivers cold here.  

 

High amplitude MJO, high amplitude ENSO, high amplitude Kara Sea high...

 

 

 

Very nice assessment.

[donsutherland1]

Here you go Don

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.html

Thank you, Doorman.

[donsutherland1]

Don, here is an alternative one:

 

http://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

Thanks. That's a nice site and I've bookmarked it.

[SnowGoose69]

Again, SSW events:

1) Do not always deliver cold into the continental US...let alone the eastern United States

2) Displace the vortex enough on this side of the pole to deliver the goods

3) Split the PV

Just as a heads up as Larry Cosgrove continues to hype everyone up about it.

Most SSWs do effect this side of the pole. Only a small number effect Europe, a greater number actually impact Asia. The only logical reason I have ever had is that there is a tendency for the split to occur where there is more land mass from the pole into the mid latitudes vs ocean

[mriceyman]

A hurricane in the atlantic in january???

[NEG NAO]

Most SSWs do effect this side of the pole. Only a small number effect Europe, a greater number actually impact Asia. The only logical reason I have ever had is that there is a tendency for the split to occur where there is more land mass from the pole into the mid latitudes vs ocean

What is the usual lag time between the occurrence of the SSW and surface effects ?

[NittanyWx]

Most SSWs do effect this side of the pole. Only a small number effect Europe, a greater number actually impact Asia. The only logical reason I have ever had is that there is a tendency for the split to occur where there is more land mass from the pole into the mid latitudes vs ocean

 

There's a wonderful paper on the probabilities of cold on this side of the pole in displacement vs. split events.  I'll see if I can dig it up, it's worth a read.  If I can find it, i'll pm you.

 

Edit: Reading my post I can see how it would come off as unclear:

Amended to:

 

1) Do not always deliver cold into the continental US...let alone the eastern United States

2) Do not always displace the vortex enough on this side of the pole to deliver the goods

3) Do not always split the PV

[Metasequoia]

JB thinks that a low will form along the arctic front near the coast on Sunday into Monday as it comes through. Euro is showing that.

And then ride out to sea?

[IsentropicLift]

A hurricane in the atlantic in january???

Last one was 2006 I believe.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Last one was 2006 I believe.

Your right after the new year 2006

Zero snow here as expected

[donsutherland1]

Last one was 2006 I believe.

It's the first since Alice (December 1954-January 1955). From the NHC:

 

#Alex is the first January #hurricane to form since 1938 and the first to occur in this month since Alice of 1955.

[bluewave]

HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016

1100 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016

Remarkably, Alex has undergone the transformation into a hurricane.

A distinct eye is present, embedded within a fairly symmetric mass

of deep convection. Water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level

trough is now west of the cyclone, with divergent flow over the

center - indicative of a tropical transition. It is very unusual to

have a hurricane over waters that are near 20 deg C, but the

upper-tropospheric temperatures are estimated to be around -60 deg

C, which is significantly colder than the tropical mean. The

resulting instability is likely the main factor contributing to the

tropical transition and intensification of Alex. With these

changes, the government of the Azores has issued warnings for most

of the Azores islands.

The initial intensity is set to 75 kt in accordance with the

analyzed Dvorak T-number of 4.5. Only slight additional

intensification seems possible since the system will be passing

over even colder waters during the next day or two. In 36 hours,

the global models suggest that the cyclone will become

extratropical as it begins to merge with a large low pressure area

at high latitude. The post-tropical cyclone is then likely to lose

its identity after 48 hours.

The initial motion is north-northeastward or 020/17 kt. Alex is

being steered by a shortwave mid-level trough that is rotating

around a larger trough to the northwest. This should cause the

cyclone to turn northward and north-northwestward and accelerate

over the next couple of days. The official track forecast is very

similar to the previous one and also quite close to the consensus

of the tightly-packed dynamical model forecast tracks.

Alex is the first hurricane to form in the month of January since

1938, and the first hurricane to occur in this month since Alice of

1955.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 31.5N 28.4W 75 KT 85 MPH

12H 15/0000Z 34.3N 27.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

24H 15/1200Z 38.9N 27.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

36H 16/0000Z 45.3N 28.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

48H 16/1200Z 53.0N 31.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

[donsutherland1]

HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   4NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL0120161100 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016Remarkably, Alex has undergone the transformation into a hurricane.A distinct eye is present, embedded within a fairly symmetric massof deep convection.  Water vapor imagery shows that the upper-leveltrough is now west of the cyclone, with divergent flow over thecenter - indicative of a tropical transition.  It is very unusual tohave a hurricane over waters that are near 20 deg C, but theupper-tropospheric temperatures are estimated to be around -60 degC, which is significantly colder than the tropical mean.  Theresulting instability is likely the main factor contributing to thetropical transition and intensification of Alex.  With thesechanges, the government of the Azores has issued warnings for mostof the Azores islands.The initial intensity is set to 75 kt in accordance with theanalyzed Dvorak T-number of 4.5.  Only slight additionalintensification seems possible since the system will be passingover even colder waters during the next day or two.  In 36 hours,the global models suggest that the cyclone will becomeextratropical as it begins to merge with a large low pressure areaat high latitude.  The post-tropical cyclone is then likely to loseits identity after 48 hours.The initial motion is north-northeastward or 020/17 kt.  Alex isbeing steered by a shortwave mid-level trough that is rotatingaround a larger trough to the northwest.  This should cause thecyclone to turn northward and north-northwestward and accelerateover the next couple of days.  The official track forecast is verysimilar to the previous one and also quite close to the consensusof the tightly-packed dynamical model forecast tracks.Alex is the first hurricane to form in the month of January since1938, and the first hurricane to occur in this month since Alice of1955.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT  14/1500Z 31.5N  28.4W   75 KT  85 MPH 12H  15/0000Z 34.3N  27.7W   80 KT  90 MPH 24H  15/1200Z 38.9N  27.7W   75 KT  85 MPH 36H  16/0000Z 45.3N  28.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H  16/1200Z 53.0N  31.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED$$

This is an extraordinary development. At 75 knots, Alex is also the strongest January hurricane on record. The 1938 hurricane and Alice had peak maximum sustained winds of 70 knots.

[bluewave]

This is an extraordinary development. At 75 knots, Alex is also the strongest January hurricane on record. The 1938 hurricane and Alice had peak maximum sustained winds of 70 knots.

 

Yeah, the record warm SST's along the track probably made this possible. The occurrence 

with Pali makes this an even more extreme event. Dr Masters has a very nice blog entry.

 

Unprecedented: Simultaneous January Named Storms in the Atlantic and Central Pacific

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/unprecedented-simultaneous-january-named-storms-in-the-atlantic-and-c

 

Alex's genesis

Alex can trace its genesis to an area of low pressure that formed off the Southeast U.S. coast on January 7. Between January 8 and 12, pre-Alex tracked generally eastwards over ocean waters that were 22 - 25°C (72 - 77°F); these temperatures were near-record warm for this time of year (about 2 - 4°F above average). These temperatures were just high enough so that Alex was able to gradually gain a warm core and become a subtropical storm

[PB GFI]

It looks like Sunday night into Monday most here will see some light snow .

As SLP stays well off shore there is a mid level disturbance will be heading through the region.

Some moisture should get captured and an IVT could develop for a lucky few .

The feature becomes more evident once into New England but as it stands now there is a chance that feature sets up over a small area before lifting N . For the rest of us there is the chance of light snow falling through -12 air at 850.

So there may be a few areas that pick up 1 to 2.

[mob1]

Some light snow on the GFS next Monday, that will make it the 3rd flurry event of the season (so this winter already has more snow than the summer of 96)

Edit; Ninja'd by someone's lightning fast fingers.

[wthrmn654]

I noticed that 06z navgem brings a low up coast but it's out to sea on Sunday into Monday. But only other model that I've noticed to show a low that far north other then gfs lately...

12z gfs has a low suddenly form off of coast of mass. Monday

[mob1]

Should I get emotionally invested in the 8 day threat? If it still shows it 12 hours after the event has already passed I'll get excited.

[wthrmn654]

Actually, low forms Monday into Tuesday.

Sunday into Monday

[snowman19]

Actually, low forms Monday into Tuesday.

Flurries. Enjoy