Rjay Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Having more Pros and less readers equals less activity. Remember. Not everyone is a legitimate forecaster or a Meteorologist. Yup and we don't have more than 3 or 4 mets that post in our subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 EPO going negative towards the end of next week ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Miller b on the GGEM and GFS for next Friday. This storm has been showing up on every model and ensemble. Rain? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Rain? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 00z GFS shows a significant snow event for us late next week. Too far out to take seriously at this point as we all know, but the potential is there. I really don't think we get to February without a nice snow event or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Rain? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Rain for the coast on the GGEM but a lot of snow inland. GFS is all snow for everyone. At this timeframe, we could be working with a -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 You have: An El Nino thread A Monthly discussion/obs thread- actual a pattern discussion and obs A specific storm thread A model times thread- so no one can ask when a model comes out that no one posts in A storm tracking thread- for radars and other stuff A banter thread- so all garbage stays in here. This also serves as a long range thread for people to follow the models in the long range to post stuff that will change 100 times. A Today in Weather History thread- which is always interesting. Thanks again Uncle. A NW Burbs thread- for our NW posters to have their own spot A Long Island thread- that is mostly inactive A Vendor thread- there's no talk about DT and JB every 2 seconds in discussion threads. A couple other random threads that do nothing to distract from the subforum. What more do you want? This is just my opinion, but I think it would be helpful if there were fewer pinned threads. I think having 5 pinned threads makes it a bit harder to navigate, because a number of threads get shoved towards the bottom of the page - the ones that actually are active - and some of the top, pinned threads are not active. I think this makes it harder to get to actual discussion and it make the board "appear" dead. A minor detail but I thought I'd mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Henry M jinxed us again. He jinxes every storm. After the 12z GFS came out, he said that he expects the storm to ride up the coast. STFU Henry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Henry M jinxed us again. He jinxes every storm. After the 12z GFS came out, he said that he expects the storm to ride up the coast. STFU Henry. Why do you even watch that guy? I used to watch his videos in high school but then I realized he was a circus clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Archambeault event incoming next week as severe nao begins to relax/flip while the pos pna tries to remain positive. Huge signal there with regard to those teleconnections imo. Something is going to pop between Jan 17-24. I know thats a vague 7 day range but IF IF IF we r going to get something from this epic pattern it will be when the nao relaxes or tries to flip next week. These is support in the ensembles for something during this time frame as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 This is just my opinion, but I think it would be helpful if there were fewer pinned threads. I think having 5 pinned threads makes it a bit harder to navigate, because a number of threads get shoved towards the bottom of the page - the ones that actually are active - and some of the top, pinned threads are not active. I think this makes it harder to get to actual discussion and it make the board "appear" dead. A minor detail but I thought I'd mention it. I tend to agree. It's unfortunate that 2 of those threads need to be pinned but they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Miller b on the GGEM and GFS for next Friday. This storm has been showing up on every model and ensemble.Ant, you should start a thread ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 powerball winner in cali so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 powerball winner in cali so far The store where the ticket was sold is currently being mobbed by people for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 powerball winner in cali so far I don't get why all these people are there Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Archambeault event incoming next week as severe nao begins to relax/flip while the pos pna tries to remain positive. Huge signal there with regard to those teleconnections imo. Sonething is going to pop between Jan 17-24. I know thats a vague 7 day range but IF IF IF we r going to get something from this epic pattern it will be when the nao relaxes or tries to flip next week. These is support in the ensembles for something during this time frame as well. -EPO also which could help Ant, you should start a thread ;-) No way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Archambeault event incoming next week as severe nao begins to relax/flip while the pos pna tries to remain positive. Huge signal there with regard to those teleconnections imo. Something is going to pop between Jan 17-24. I know thats a vague 7 day range but IF IF IF we r going to get something from this epic pattern it will be when the nao relaxes or tries to flip next week. These is support in the ensembles for something during this time frame as well.I thought I was the only thinking this. I guess not. I fully agree. Most of our best KUs happen when the NAO goes from -1SD to +1SD. Let's hope that the Pacific will hold up on its end. Otherwise it will suck again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I'm staying away from these threads until there's something legit going on. There's going to be a lot of model drama on here I can tell. Fingers crossed on the coming period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Euro shows most of the country well above average post day 8. Canada even more so, if it's right winter is on it's last prostetic leg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Last nights GFS splits the 10mb PV at two different times. Need to get this moved up in time. It's all fantasy still and the Euro still says no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Last nights GFS splits the 10mb PV at two different times. Need to get this moved up in time. It's all fantasy still and the Euro still says no. The stratosphere is very quickly becoming a total lost cause, in 2 weeks we are going into February. By the middle of next week we loose all the high latitude blocking and canonical El Niño domination of the pattern begins and continues into February. What's worse, we loose the cold air in both Canada and the CONUS and are left with screaming zonal and semi-zonal flow, pacific maritime air flooding us and all of Canada. Make no mistake about it, it's going to get very, very ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Some guidance for FEB . The EURO seasonal looks good , however I can`t post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The stratosphere is very quickly becoming a total lost cause, in 2 weeks we are going into February. By the middle of next week we loose all the high latitude blocking and canonical El Niño domination of the pattern begins and continues into February. What's worse, we loose the cold air in both Canada and the CONUS and are left with screaming zonal and semi-zonal flow, pacific maritime air flooding us and all of Canada. Make no mistake about it, it's going to get very, very uglyClassic stuff, thanks Warmy. So based on this post, you're going with departures similar to December for February? At least +10 right? Put some numbers out there. Without an SSW, the effects of which would be felt much more immediately than I think you realize (within 2 weeks), I think Feb is +2 with normal snow since there is still the active STJ. Think March would be a lost cause in this scenario as the days get longer. With a SSW, if guess Feb would be -2 with a persistent -AO, which would last well into March. Both months would be above normal snow and potentially quite a bit above. Until the Euro jumps on board, will go with the former scenario, which is still very respectable. Tropical forcing will continue out by the dateline as the now more west-based Nino gradually weakens over Feb and March. So, while PAC air could certainly flood the conus, the NPAC low should remain predominantly south of the Aleutians and I doubt we see anything ugly like December. For everyone else, understand I am not giving up on Winter, just the belief that an almighty SSW will save us from the clear El Niño driven PAC dominated pattern we have seen so far. I believe we will see accumulating snow in February either way since this is a basin-wide event. And because it would be unprecedented for us not to see any accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Having more Pros and less readers equals less activity. Remember. Not everyone is a legitimate forecaster or a Meteorologist. It would be like having a racecar forum that only drivers could post on, or a car forum only mechanics could post at. In short, reading the musings of experts only would be boring, especially when the main topic is that there is nothing interesting going on....how many people are meteorologists? I only ever met one in real life years ago and he was teaching middle school science and doing the weather locally part time.....and since it is not a licensed field, any happy jack can call himself a weatherman and make a living at it, and some do.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The stratosphere is very quickly becoming a total lost cause, in 2 weeks we are going into February. By the middle of next week we loose all the high latitude blocking and canonical El Niño domination of the pattern begins and continues into February. What's worse, we loose the cold air in both Canada and the CONUS and are left with screaming zonal and semi-zonal flow, pacific maritime air flooding us and all of Canada. Make no mistake about it, it's going to get very, very ugly Can you post canonical nino february temperature departures? Thanks. (Not a sarcastic post, genuinely curious how it changes month to month) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Again, SSW events: 1) Do not always deliver cold into the continental US...let alone the eastern United States 2) Displace the vortex enough on this side of the pole to deliver the goods 3) Split the PV Just as a heads up as Larry Cosgrove continues to hype everyone up about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Quick question: At what site can one find these maps? Many thanks. This has been covered by a few already, but the first image was just simply the daily temp anomalies on the ESRL reanalysis site. The second I cannot take credit for...that was good old fashioned analog work done by a colleague of mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Again, SSW events: 1) Do not always deliver cold into the continental US...let alone the eastern United States 2) Displace the vortex enough on this side of the pole to deliver the goods 3) Split the PV Just as a heads up. Agreed. However, the progression this winter is eerily similar to that of 1958. 1958 delivered cold air into the CONUS. We've also seen little resistance to the establishment of arctic blocking and, in fact, a near record -AO value occurring as we speak, and all without actual PV displacement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Agreed. However, the progression this winter is eerily similar to that of 1958. 1958 delivered cold air into the CONUS. We've also seen little resistance to the establishment of arctic blocking and, in fact, a near record -AO value occurring as we speak, and all without actual PV displacement. I've made my thoughts clear on why I thought that Arctic blocking took place. Largely MJO induced, with contributions from a crazy anomalous Kara Sea high. If you're relying on the SSW for the goods as far as further blocking goes, you need to wait (my opinion). They (SSW's) do not have an instantaneous effect on the troposphere...there's a physical process that must take place with a warming event like this. Even then, it's not a given it delivers cold here. High amplitude MJO, high amplitude ENSO, high amplitude Kara Sea high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Again, SSW events: 1) Do not always deliver cold into the continental US...let alone the eastern United States 2) Displace the vortex enough on this side of the pole to deliver the goods 3) Split the PV Just as a heads up as Larry Cosgrove continues to hype everyone up about it. It's not only Cosgrove that's talking about SSW. It's other social media meteorologists also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 It's not only Cosgrove that's talking about SSW. It's other social media meteorologists also. That's the problem -- social media mets. Some of them are just looking for views, likes, and retweets. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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