SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 92, and that was after 4 years of pretty lean times... One of those events was the night the plane crashed at Laguardia too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So you're essentially cancelling winter? And it hasnt even reached the midway point of January? Seems suspect to me. No, because I did say around 10" of snow. Met winter is half over, and normal snow for NYC is what, 23"? So, saying 10" actually assumes we will have normal snow from here on out, right? history is on your side but I'm hoping for a turnaround come feb like we had last year. I'm done reading anything about SSW-overused and almost never happens Nothing wrong with hoping for a turnaround, but there needs to be a mechanism to turn things around. I had always said a prolonged wintry pattern would depend on a January SSW. It's still a long shot, but I don't see it happening now. This is in no way a troll..but has PB GFI been posting the last few days? I quickly scrolled thru and haven't seen anything Dude was spot on about the pattern change and while it isn't as cold as thought, it's cold. I think last year got peoples' hopes up a bit; most snowless Decembers are followed by below normal snowfall and when that didn't happen, people thought we could disregard those stats. But alas, snow ain't happening much anywhere this year outside of a few places so far, so it's looking like the December rule will hold this year. I don't feel like arguing with the snowblower anyway. And if it snows in March nature takes care of it.... Most definitely. High expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 No need to berate someone for altering their forecast, it isn't that serious. S'cool. There's history there. Let him do what he needs to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 No need to berate someone for altering their forecast, it isn't that serious, forecasts change all the time. My capacity for forecasting doesn't extend beyond educated guesswork lol, so I respect everyone's thoughts, whether I agree or disagree. I think he's berating him for berating others who didn't agree with his forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The pattern most definitely changed. What folks need to remember is, that doesn't automatically mean snow. Which is what it seems like some take the meaning of "pattern change" to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 ten winters since 1949-50 had the arctic oscillation hit -5 or lower...the ao forecast was for the ao to drop close to -5...If it reaches that level time will tell if this winter has any great snowstorms or cold waves in the future...every analog had below zero temperatures or a KU snowstorm...1962-63 was very cold but had well below average snowfall...this year the cold comes first...is a KU far behind?... winter.......AO min. date... 1976-77...-7.433...01/15/1977... 1969-70...-6.365...03/05/1970 1984-85...-6.226...01/19/1985 2009-10...-5.821...12/21/2009 2012-13...-5.688...03/20/2013 1977-78...-5.291...02/05/1978 1968-69...-5.282...02/13/1969 2010-11...-5.172...12/18/2010 1965-66...-5.130...01/28/1966 1962-63...-5.010...01/21/1963 2000-01...-4.854...02/25/2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Why can't we just have a normal snow fall winter at this point???? The cold air is around. I'm not buying this feast or famine crap. February is historically the snowiest month for a reason. All these cold (but dry) shots are serving a purpose. They are lowering water temps. Cold water temps are great for expanding snow threats. Just look at last March of April 96. So this insnt "wasted" cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Why can't we just have a normal snow fall winter at this point???? The cold air is around. I'm not buying this feast or famine crap. February is historically the snowiest month for a reason. All these cold (but dry) shots are serving a purpose. They are lowering water temps. Cold water temps are great for expanding snow threats. Just look at last March of April 96. So this insnt "wasted" cold Normal has been missing in action for 15 years. Take the three under 10" dud years out and we're averaging more than 20" above normal over a 15 year span (this is at BNL). Only one of those years was close to the long term average. Feast or famine.. 2000 2001 0 0 10.1 11.3 10.8 19 0 51.2 2001 2002 0 0 0 5.5 Trace Trace 0 5.5 2002 2003 0 2 11.5 5.8 31.8 5.5 5.5 62.1 2003 2004 0 0 25 22 2.2 11 0 60.2 2004 2005 0 0.5 13 29 20 16 0 78.5 2005 2006 0 1.5 7 4 14 4 0 30.5 2006 2007 0 0 Trace 0.5 3.5 5.5 0 9.5 2007 2008 0 Trace 3 0.5 7 1 0 11.5 2008 2009 0 Trace 10.9 12.1 5.2 14.8 0 43 2009 2010 0 0 26.3 12.7 28.4 0.4 0 67.8 2010 2011 0 0 19.8 35.7 4.7 1.3 0 61.5 2011 2012 0 0 0 5.5 0 0 0 5.5 2012 2013 0 1.1 1.4 4.7 35.8 8.8 0 51.8 2013 2014 0 0.2 5.4 24.8 23.9 3.2 0 57.5 2014 2015 0 0 0.3 22.8 15.2 23.9 62.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Talk about doing a 180 from your "historic pattern incoming, get your shovels ready" posts less than 2 weeks ago where you berated posters who weren't buying into your hype. Now you ramble on completely in the other direction to make yourself look better. What a joke. The only thing historic about this pattern was wolfmans epic bust...and incessant trolling of those who disagree. Everyone is wrong sometimes. But not everyone is so incredibly arrogant and condescending while being so utterly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Why can't we just have a normal snow fall winter at this point???? The cold air is around. I'm not buying this feast or famine crap. February is historically the snowiest month for a reason. All these cold (but dry) shots are serving a purpose. They are lowering water temps. Cold water temps are great for expanding snow threats. Just look at last March of April 96. So this insnt "wasted" cold Still 50. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Why can't we just have a normal snow fall winter at this point???? The cold air is around. I'm not buying this feast or famine crap. February is historically the snowiest month for a reason. All these cold (but dry) shots are serving a purpose. They are lowering water temps. Cold water temps are great for expanding snow threats. Just look at last March of April 96. So this insnt "wasted" cold I agree. I'm not canceling anything. After reading through all the stuff this preseason, I actually thought it would be a near normal snowfall year. Could still fail of course, but I'm not ready to call that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Watch it snow in March and April lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Still 50. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065 The water takes a long time to cool down. So this lag time is to be excepted. With next weeks cold shot we should see water temps drop to the mid 40s by the end of the week. Way way way better then the upper 50s of December Also that buoy is pretty far offshore. Near shore waters are much colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The canceling winter now makes zero sense, with that said you should expect less snow by law of diminishing returns, we can always still end up having an above average winter snowfall wise but being how late it is it would be hopelessly optimistic to "expect" it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Talk about doing a 180 from your "historic pattern incoming, get your shovels ready" posts less than 2 weeks ago where you berated posters who weren't buying into your hype. Now you ramble on completely in the other direction to make yourself look better. What a joke. Lol.. seriously. I actually bought a shovel to, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The canceling winter now makes zero sense, with that said you should expect less snow by law of diminishing returns, we can always still end up having an above average winter snowfall wise but being how late it is it would be hopelessly optimistic to "expect" it. Who is canceling winter? 10" would be very respectable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I find it amusing that some here think we won't continue to have threats because of the Nino. We just need a well timed system and an active STJ will keep the parade active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I find it amusing that some here think we won't continue to have threats because of the Nino. We just need a well timed system and an active STJ will keep the parade active. Agree about timing and given the strength of the Nino and STJ, explosive systems are possible. However, with the raging PAC behaving more like a Nina, chances of seeing all the different pieces come together is lower than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Agree about timing and given the strength of the Nino and STJ, explosive systems are possible. However, with the raging PAC behaving more like a Nina, chances of seeing all the different pieces come together is lower than normal. Sweet. So now I will go and purchase that shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Watch it snow in March and April lol Easter ... Nor-Easter ............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I am going to go ahead and call b.s. on the modeled SSWE and subsequent PV displacement based on the fact that the Euro is not showing it at all. I will also go ahead and say I no longer believe we will get Stratospheric help for Feb and March. For this reason, I think the PAC will overwhelm the CONUS before the end of January and give us a positive departure for February. Also no longer think we see a KU chance or two this Winter, since belief in that was based on the SSW occurring and subsequent blocking which would commonly set up in such circumstances. Doubt NYC sees more than 10 or so inches until Spring. and this is even being aggressive. boy that was quick, SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Guys lets just take a deep breath and relax. The models are terrible and we literally can't trust them past 2-3 days tops. The snow for Sunday night is still on the table very unlikely but it's there. If the first low from Saturday could sling shoot the second storm and make a bit more north than just going out to sea we can get our first major snowstorm of the season. cheer up plenty of chances to Coke. Mother Nature will do what it does best, surprise us each time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So close to splitting at 10mb on the 18z GFS. Dammit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 So close to splitting at 10mb on the 18z GFS. Dammit. Europe should have a cold Febuary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 This is in no way a troll..but has PB GFI been posting the last few days? I quickly scrolled thru and haven't seen anything Yes. All I could post on this Jan so far has been ie, 1 -6 BN 7 -10 AN 11- 20 BN. Up to this point I have not bit on 1 storm , because I always wait inside 5 days and all the L/R guidance keeps breaking down in the M/R. I think that will change. It could snow Sun /Mon. Its probably an inverted trough . As LP is heading NE off the coast there may be a mid level disturbance flying through the flow from the lakes. It may be able to pull some moisture back and snow through -12 air at 850. Again I will wait until 12z tomorrow to pull that trigger. There is a small pullback bet the 20 -25 but the pattern will have it chances as we go into FEB as D 15 euro and Canadian ensembles look good. Never cxl winter on Jan 15 but the frustration is understandable . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I don't get it. I would think the EPO is not negative since we have that Aleutian low/Pac jet crashing into Alaska and West Coast. Also, I'd think that the PNA is not positive because of the same reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I don't get it. I would think the EPO is not negative since we have that Aleutian low/Pac jet crashing into Alaska and West Coast. Also, I'd think that the PNA is not positive because of the same reason. The EPO is - as the heights in AK are higher over LP sitting S of AK. The PNA is + but there is a split flow present . There are height rises into W BC . SW are crashing underneath the higher heights . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Maybe some flurries or snow showers tonight with the shortwave moving through. Maybe a coating or a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Maybe some flurries or snow showers tonight with the shortwave moving through. Maybe a coating or a dusting. Better than nothing. Please take some pics for the gang if you are up -thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 What a miserable winter. My annuals just stopped blooming last week. The only snow ive seen has been at night. Just horrendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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