bluewave Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Could actually see a nice stretch of wintry weather for the interior beginning the 18th. Nice cutter fest on the 06z gfs LR. I'll happily take any storm post super torch. Record temps are nice but the weather has been so mundane lately. Cutter and suppressed coastal to our SE seems to be the storm pattern here recently. But that's what happens when you pump such a strong ridge over the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I'm kinda rooting for a amped up cutter. Give this pattern a kick in the shin. I mean like stemwinder type cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Cutter and suppressed coastal to our SE seems to be the storm pattern here recently. But that's what happens when you pump such a strong ridge over the Northeast. I think you could get development on the EC around day 9 ish but with a bad air mass In front and behind it that looks like a favorable interior /NE system if it does take shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I think you could get development on the EC around day 9 ish but with a bad air mass In front and behind it that looks like a favorable interior /NE system if it does take shape. It's possible. But the OP models have been very erratic on individual storm details past 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 It's possible. But the OP models have been very erratic on individual storm details past 120 hrs.The OP is S. The ensembles bring it. I think If you still see it by day 7 it's something that we could pull out of banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 The OP is S. The ensembles bring it. I think If you it by day 7 it's something that we could pull out of banter. At some point the STJ will find an opening and we could get more of a hugger track than we have been seeing. We could really use the rain since NYC is down -10.47 for precipitation this year with drought conditions persisting. PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 2.54 2014 0.13 -0.13 MONTH TO DATE 0.47 1.25 -0.78 SINCE DEC 1 0.47 1.25 -0.78 SINCE JAN 1 36.72 47.19 -10.47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 6z GFS is great for the interior and SNE for next week's storm and in the long range. Storm after Storm after Storm. Very active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Could actually see a nice stretch of wintry weather for the interior beginning the 18th. Nice cutter fest on the 06z gfs LR. I'll happily take any storm post super torch. Record temps are nice but the weather has been so mundane lately. No cutters on the 6z GFS for the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 6z GFS is great for the interior and SNE for next week's storm and in the long range. Storm after Storm after Storm. Very active pattern.This is the heart break at the coast period of the winter. Still right on schedule. The you want to be elevated and inland period.Again, have been planning for this. We need to see water temps cool as well as overall climatology before it's the coasts turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 This is the heart break at the coast period of the winter. Still right on schedule. The you want to be elevated and inland period. Again, have been planning for this. We need to see water temps cool as well as overall climatology before it's the coasts turn Agree although I wouldn't rule out anything with the storms coming up. Inland areas have a better shot of some snowfall. Our time is January - March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 This is the heart break at the coast period of the winter. Still right on schedule. The you want to be elevated and inland period. Again, have been planning for this. We need to see water temps cool as well as overall climatology before it's the coasts turn Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Or we could saw you have been Euro ed 9 day whoever/whatever is clown range , but if showed plus 10 at 850 I know some would be posting on it . For your clown range viewing pleasure . looks like a cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Ridiculous that in mid December I just walked my dog around 9 and was completely comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Ridiculous that in mid December I just walked my dog around 9 and was completely comfortable.my allergies are terrible I have to see dr Monday to adjust meds ...enough is enough of this warmth .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 my allergies are terrible I have to see dr Monday to adjust meds ...enough is enough of this warmth .. The pollen count is .10 out of 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 my allergies are terrible I have to see dr Monday to adjust meds ...enough is enough of this warmth .. It's just getting started. Have a feeling we see warmth overperforming by a few degrees which puts 70F in play by Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 with the ao forecast to go a little negative next week there could be some break in the warmth...the forecast for later on in the month is not so good...One member is as high as +5 for the AO...it could be a rouge member or its on to something...If we don't get any measurable snow in December this year will join a dubious club... Latest measurable snowfall in Central Park... date......winter......amount......enso 1/04/1878.............0.1"...........el nino.........at least 0.1" before it turned to rain... 1/08/1886.............3.1"...........el nino 1/06/1892.............3.5"...........weak positive... 1/03/1944.............3.9"...........weak negative... 1/20/1966.............0.4"...........el nino... 1/05/1972.............1.0"...........la nina... 1/29/1973.............1.8"...........el nino... 1/11/1995.............0.2"...........el nino... 1/18/1998.............0.5"...........el nino... 1/20/2000.............2.5"...........la nina... 1/07/2002.............0.5"...........neutral... 1/19/2007.............0.4"...........el nino... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 how about EPO and WPO forecasts? Any help there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 The pollen count is .10 out of 12my allergist says not pollen just something from atmosphere not expecting let up until first snow fall go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 with the ao forecast to go a little negative next week there could be some break in the warmth...the forecast for later on in the month is not so good...One member is as high as +5 for the AO...it could be a rouge member or its on to something...If we don't get any measurable snow in December this year will join a dubious club... Latest measurable snowfall in Central Park... date......winter......amount......enso 1/04/1878.............0.1"...........el nino.........at least 0.1" before it turned to rain... 1/08/1886.............3.1"...........el nino 1/06/1892.............3.5"...........weak positive... 1/03/1944.............3.9"...........weak negative... 1/20/1966.............0.4"...........el nino... 1/05/1972.............1.0"...........la nina... 1/29/1973.............1.8"...........el nino... 1/11/1995.............0.2"...........el nino... 1/18/1998.............0.5"...........el nino... 1/20/2000.............2.5"...........la nina... 1/07/2002.............0.5"...........neutral... 1/19/2007.............0.4"...........el nino... Some additional statistics concerning the above winters: Mean seasonal snowfall: 14.6" Median seasonal snowfall: 14.4" Lowest seasonal snowfall: 2.8", 1972-73 Highest seasonal snowfall: 25.4", 1891-92 Cases: < 10" seasonal snowfall: 33% (75% of them were El Niño winters) < 20" seasonal snowfall: 58% (71% of them were El Niño winters) < 30" seasonal snowfall: 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 Whats the 12 z gfs showing? Crap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Whats the 12 z gfs showing? Crap? What FORKY said with a miss to the S with the piece on its backside . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 What FORKY said with a miss to the S with the piece on its backside .Oh ok so crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Whats the 12 z gfs showing? Crap? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Some additional statistics concerning the above winters: Mean seasonal snowfall: 14.6" Median seasonal snowfall: 14.4" Lowest seasonal snowfall: 2.8", 1972-73 Highest seasonal snowfall: 25.4", 1891-92 Cases: < 10" seasonal snowfall: 33% (75% of them were El Niño winters) < 20" seasonal snowfall: 58% (71% of them were El Niño winters) < 30" seasonal snowfall: 100% I liked 1965-66 as an analog but we would need a reversal in the AO in January...the only 10" plus storm was in Feb. 1995...March 1892 had a 10" storm in parts of the city...maybe we could sneak in one cold week with a little snow before Christmas...that happened in 1930 and 1998...Good thing Central park recorded a 32 degree temperature already because there isn't any cold in the short term and the latest 32 or lower day would be in jeopardy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Once again we are dealing with model fantasy cold and snowstorms and regime shifts at day 10 and beyond that never move forward in time and just stay stuck there day after day. This is 2011-2012 deja vu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Once again we are dealing with model fantasy cold and snowstorms and regime shifts at day 10 and beyond that never move forward in time and just stay stuck there day after day. This is 2011-2012 deja vu That lasted basically all season. Bit it's December and most of us expected a "torch" and maybe a step down by very late December into early to mid January. I'm not confident in any call right now but this seems to be going as planned by many posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Once again we are dealing with model fantasy cold and snowstorms and regime shifts at day 10 and beyond that never move forward in time and just stay stuck there day after day. This is 2011-2012 deja vu Everything is going as planned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 12z Euro says welcome to cutterville. But we can really use the rain to help NYC work down the 10 inch precipitation deficit for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 12z Euro says welcome to cutterville. But we can really use the rain to help NYC work down the 10 inch precipitation deficit for the year. Cutters would be good for several reason-knock down the drought, give us something else to talk about for a change, and sometimes herald in a better pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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