mikemost Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Whats euro got to say about Saturday an Monday storm? Check back in an hour. ** Ugh, was looking at the office clock which I always forget wasn't reset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Check back in an hour. 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 in other news ,we might get some snow tonight and tomm morning courtesy of a developing shortwave and some nice waa forcing creating snow across the metro area.a nice surprise for sure given the positive mood and trends for this week coming up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 ECMWF has the energy near the Yucatan. Not even close to what the GFS showed. Only 2 GEFS members were hits. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 ECMWF has the energy near the Yucatan. Not even close to what the GFS showed. Only 2 GEFS members were hits. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Typical wacky GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 And the euro says no. Everyones mood goes back to blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 And the euro says no. Everyones mood goes back to blah. Which event? I believe the consensus is that we gave up on the Saturday event already. How does Sunday/Monday event look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Which event? I believe the consensus is that we gave up on the Saturday event already. How does Sunday/Monday event look?The Euro has no event fir Sunday/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 RIP winter 15/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 RIP winter 15/16The Euro DARES you to go out on the street with a bathing suit Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 The EPS may show something a bit different. Euro has a tendency to incorrect bury s/w into mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The Euro has no event fir Sunday/Monday. Not really an event, but does have snow showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 ECMWF has the energy near the Yucatan. Not even close to what the GFS showed. Only 2 GEFS members were hits. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk The ECMWF is even further south/east than the last run. As you mentioned it's the 12z GFS vs even its own ensembles. CMC was nothing, and the UKMET looked to be a total miss as well, way south then way way east on its panels. This is the operational GFS vs the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Not really an event, but does have snow showers Wooooo hoooo more snow showers!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The ECMWF is even further south/east than the last run. As you mentioned it's the 12z GFS vs even its own ensembles. CMC was nothing, and the UKMET looked to be a total miss as well, way south then way way east on its panels. This is the operational GFS vs the worldYeah, doesn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 When I win powerball tonight I'm taking everyone in this forum to the mountains outside Valdez Alaska where it snows 100" in a given day. Who likes 7" hour rates!!!???!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Living and dying by model runs I see. Teleconnections strongly support a big coastal and that's what I'm going with. I just don't know whether it'll be the first or second wave to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Living and dying by model runs I see. Teleconnections strongly support a big coastal and that's what I'm going with. I just don't know whether it'll be the first or second wave to produce. It just seems that the weather is basically saying, "To heck with teleconnections!" Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 S Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It just seems that the weather is basically saying, "To heck with teleconnections!" The AO heads between -4 and -5 before jolting upwards along with the -NAO around the same time frame. The PNA stays positive. I would be shocked if nothing happened while all that is occurring. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 It just seems that [El Niño] is basically saying, "To heck with teleconnections!" Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Fixed ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 When I win powerball tonight I'm taking everyone in this forum to the mountains outside Valdez Alaska where it snows 100" in a given day. Who likes 7" hour rates!!!???!! We have had nearly that here the last couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 So here's your composite for the Phase 8 ENSO filtered MJO period (1/7-1/11) this year. Gives strong credence to using this tool in future ENSO years. vs. previous analog Unfortunately, I do not think the P1 composites are going to match up nearly as nicely, despite a milder signal (largely driven by late week/weekend anomalies) for a decent portion of the northeast and southern plains. This will likely be a more significant miss across the northern plains and Midwest by the time all is said and done. Two thoughts on this: 1) There are legitimate questions as to whether this is a true phase 1 response going on right now. While we've seen a significant increase in Indian Ocean convection, it's hard to say that this is nearly as robust as it was when this high amplitude MJO event began. Subsequently, it makes sense that perhaps there is a weaker IO forcing component to all of this, allowing for the previous block to linger a little bit longer than it otherwise would. However, there is growing consensus that this block is in fact weakening for late month (any potential SSW impact would be later in the season, these events take time to develop and impact the Arctic oscillation). 2) The main thing I've gleaned from the MJO p1 miss is that the sample size was too small to accurately use this go around. We have another piece to the puzzle this year that will add to the sample size and usefulness of the MJO composites moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 First named storm of the 2016 Atlantic season has formed... on January 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 First named storm of the 2016 Atlantic season has formed... on January 13. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Alex is his name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 First named storm of the 2016 Atlantic season has formed... on January 13. 13 days into the new year and the 2016 Atlantic tropical season is already more exciting than all of last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Alex is his name That is also a hurricane, NHC has named far uglier storms hurricanes. Impressive.EDIT lack of convection so I get it. But lovely looking cyclone on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 So here's your composite for the Phase 8 ENSO filtered MJO period (1/7-1/11) this year. Gives strong credence to using this tool in future ENSO years. vs. previous analog Unfortunately, I do not think the P1 composites are going to match up nearly as nicely, despite a milder signal (largely driven by late week/weekend anomalies) for a decent portion of the northeast and southern plains. This will likely be a more significant miss across the northern plains and Midwest by the time all is said and done. Two thoughts on this: 1) There are legitimate questions as to whether this is a true phase 1 response going on right now. While we've seen a significant increase in Indian Ocean convection, it's hard to say that this is nearly as robust as it was when this high amplitude MJO event began. Subsequently, it makes sense that perhaps there is a weaker IO forcing component to all of this, allowing for the previous block to linger a little bit longer than it otherwise would. However, there is growing consensus that this block is in fact weakening for late month (any potential SSW impact would be later in the season, these events take time to develop and impact the Arctic oscillation). 2) The main thing I've gleaned from the MJO p1 miss is that the sample size was too small to accurately use this go around. We have another piece to the puzzle this year that will add to the sample size and usefulness of the MJO composites moving forward. Quick question: At what site can one find these maps? Many thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'm thinking here:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'm thinking here:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ I'm not aware of ENSO-MJO plotting on that site's many options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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