redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Im still here. Just don't like what I'm seeing. Even the SSWE which is all over the GEFS, GEPS and EPS isn't showing on the Op Euro. Starting to wonder. Wait another busted SSWE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Wait another busted SSWE?As much as it pains me to respond to you, contrary to what Don posted, this is the first legitimately modeled SSWE of the season. So, to correct you, this could be the first busted SSWE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 22 in Central Park, at least it feels like winter for a day. The GFS in the LR looks like it was contrived by Anthony's personal demon, it has absolute bomb after bomb that are too far SE and a couple of APP runners thrown in for good measure. At least it doesn't look like any long term torches are the horizon (thank God for small favors) It literally has 5 sub 980mb lows east of us and not a single one gives us snow (the day 10 one comes close I guess, I already locked it in and told everyone I know to huddle together in shelters) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Im still here. Just don't like what I'm seeing. Even the SSWE which is all over the GEFS, GEPS and EPS isn't showing on the Op Euro. Starting to wonder. Thought you had got disgusted and threw in the towel...stick around even though it looks lost, you gotta see it through.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Thought you had got disgusted and threw in the towel...stick around even though it looks lost, you gotta see it through....Not going anywhere. Haven't for 15 years and two screen names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Patience is key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 13, 2016 Author Share Posted January 13, 2016 It's just bad luck right now honestly. Some mets/ weather hobbyists did say we'll get into the snow late Jan. We're only entering mid month now so we might another week or so before it finally starts snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 6z GEFS for Monday. Need a little more ridging in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 6z GEFS for Monday. Need a little more ridging in the west. Good luck on the western ridge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 6z GEFS for Monday. Need a little more ridging in the west. Godspeed getting that western ridging with a screaming STJ crashing into the west coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Godspeed getting that western ridging with a screaming STJ crashing into the west coast The Euro is probably seeing the same thing with this weekends storm. More progressive than the other models. This pattern was supposed to be epic. Epic pattern failed. The block that the models showed last week was insane. I had a feeling it was too good to be true . Just give me a -EPO pattern. Screw the -NAO and -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 it never looked epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 the ao is forecast to dip to -5...This is very significant...chances for some real cold or snow or both go up...I like the chances going forward...the nao is negative now also and forecast to be near neutral later on in the forecast period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pellice Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The Euro is probably seeing the same thing with this weekends storm. More progressive than the other models. This pattern was supposed to be epic. Epic pattern failed. The block that the models showed last week was insane. I had a feeling it was too good to be true . Just give me a -EPO pattern. Screw the -NAO and -AO. When you say, "Epic pattern failed," what do you mean? I remember there was supposed to be a major pattern change. Did the change not occur, or did it change back (or change to something else), or did the pattern change, but the results (sensible weather) stayed pretty much the same (although it is distinctly colder than December!)? I am trying to puzzle out what happened, or didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The Euro is probably seeing the same thing with this weekends storm. More progressive than the other models. This pattern was supposed to be epic. Epic pattern failed. The block that the models showed last week was insane. I had a feeling it was too good to be true . Just give me a -EPO pattern. Screw the -NAO and -AO. In one of your posts just prior to this you said "Patience is Key" - which is it ?? As for the possibilty of a second storm coming up the coast Sunday into Monday in the colder air - good luck......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Those charts above just goes to show how the pacific trumps all; we saw that the past couple seasons. That AO/NAO indicate a strong coastal is likely but that doesn't mean there'll be snow with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 We got half a pattern change so far this month. The Arctic saw one of the biggest +AO to -AO reversals on record for November-December to January. But the El Nino and STJ continue to push the Aleutian Low into the Western US with too much ridging ahead of the lows here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 it never looked epic Yes it did on the ensembles with a really strong block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 In one of your posts just prior to this you said "Patience is Key" - which is it ?? As for the possibilty of a second storm coming up the coast Sunday into Monday in the colder air - good luck......... Im always patience. I am not even near to throw in the towel for winter. I am just saying that I would rather have a -epo than a -nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 We got half a pattern change so far this month. The Arctic saw one of the biggest +AO to -AO reversals on record for November-December to January. But the EL Nino and STJ continue to push the Aleutian Low into the Western US with too much ridging ahead of the lows here. 16 06-48-50-771.gif This. We most definitely got a pattern change. We just didn't get the full pattern change we all wanted to have the best shot at Snow. The pattern change that was discussed was always to get us the colder air. We generally have that going for us but and El Niño, although weaker than it was is still super strong and dominating the weather. We honestly just need it to slow down. We can snow in El Niño (and even strong ones), but the flow out west is way to fast and there isn't enough break between pieces of energy. I still think we are "stepping" down into Winter and are going in the right direction. I think we get a big storm in mid to late Feb and a few more decent ones in March. I'll go with final total of 18" this winter. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 A wintry look this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Im always patience. I am not even near to throw in the towel for winter. I am just saying that I would rather have a -epo than a -nao. The EPO has been pretty negative so far this month. It's just been undercut by the El Nino and STJ pushing the Aleutian Low into the West. 2015 12 29 -47.64 2015 12 30 -111.32 2015 12 31 -110.25 2016 01 01 -128.25 2016 01 02 -141.21 2016 01 03 -115.18 2016 01 04 -97.10 2016 01 05 -102.55 2016 01 06 -133.65 2016 01 07 -168.66 2016 01 08 -164.95 2016 01 09 -149.26 2016 01 10 -163.68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 This. We most definitely got a pattern change. We just didn't get the full pattern change we all wanted to have the best shot at Snow. The pattern change that was discussed was always to get us the colder air. We generally have that going for us but and El Niño, although weaker than it was is still super strong and dominating the weather. We honestly just need it to slow down. We can snow in El Niño (and even strong ones), but the flow out west is way to fast and there isn't enough break between pieces of energy. I still think we are "stepping" down into Winter and are going in the right direction. I think we get a big storm in mid to late Feb and a few more decent ones in March. I'll go with final total of 18" this winter. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Have any evidence to back up that statement ? Mid to Late Feb into March ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 As much as it pains me to respond to you, contrary to what Don posted, this is the first legitimately modeled SSWE of the season. So, to correct you, this could be the first busted SSWE. It wouldn't be the first. For example, example from December: https://twitter.com/_NEweather/status/676493239088754690 Actual outcome: A 240-hour forecast for a dramatic warming at 50 hPa (outside the reliable forecasting horizon no less) without any look at fluxes, zonal winds, and other levels of the stratosphere, does not by itself mean that there is necessarily going to be an SSW event. One needs to look at the entire Stratosphere before reaching hard conclusions. The above tweet was based on a superficial look. Moreover, despite a reference to "my supporting evidence," no such evidence was furnished. Considering the literature and documented point that such events can only be forecast within "several days," one needs to be very cautious. The possible event is no exception. It may work out or it may not. At this point in time, I don't know. I will note that the ECMWF is not yet showing the kind of wave 2 amplitude needed for a SSW event, but 10-days out is beyond the reasonably accurate forecasting horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Have any evidence to back up that statement ? Mid to Late Feb into March ???? Nothing overly detailed. A weakening El Niño and climatology Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 We need the El Niño to start letting up or else things won't get better. At least we're past the peak and are slowing heading downward, February remains the favored month in Nino climo except of course 98, which we are unfortunately close with atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 A wintry look this morning... A really gorgeous photo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 We need the El Niño to start letting up or else things won't get better. At least we're past the peak and are slowing heading downward, February remains the favored month in Nino climo except of course 98, which we are unfortunately close with atm. On paper February might be favored BUT all the players and timing of systems has to coordinate properly for the chance of snowstorms as we are finding out the last couple of weeks..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 What a great photo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 On paper February might be favored BUT all the players and timing of systems has to coordinate properly for the chance of snowstorms as we are finding out the last couple of weeks.....This a million times over, the pattern doesn't make it snow. That stupid ULL that's probably ruining both storms could be there in any pattern as can a HP be north of us in the most putrid patterns. Sure it increases the odds of a snow, and blocking obviously slows everything down enough to allow for big storms, but at the end of the day everything is dominated by the players on the table at any given time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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