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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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With today's 44°-25° high/low temperatures in the books for Central Park, the remainder of January needs to average 1.9° below normal to have a normal mean temperature for the month. If, however, the 1/13 0z NAM MOS is correct through Friday, 1/15, the remainder of the month would need to average 2.4° below normal to achieve a normal mean temperature. In many winters, that's not a difficult task. So far, in winter 2015-16, that seems like an almost impossible one. 

 

IMO, a lot will depend on verification of the ECMWF's Arctic air mass for next week.

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With today's 44°-25° high/low temperatures in the books for Central Park, the remainder of January needs to average 1.9° below normal to have a normal mean temperature for the month. If, however, the 1/13 0z NAM MOS is correct through Friday, 1/15, the remainder of the month would need to average 2.4° below normal to achieve a normal mean temperature. In many winters, that's not a difficult task. So far, in winter 2015-16, that seems like an almost impossible one. 

 

IMO, a lot will depend on verification of the ECMWF's Arctic air mass for next week.

It will be cold early next week, but we will go back right above normal for the second part of the week.

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If we don't get at least 2-4" of snowfall this winter. Then this winter will be in the record books as one of the mildest and literally snowless winter on record. I would like to see that happen. I'm curious if we can go another 3-5 weeks without any minor snowfall.

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Still a long way before calling winter a bust. Before I moved to Austin last January, I had maybe 5-6" of snow total. My home town ended up over 50". Obviously north and east of you ended up with a historic season. Nino winters often come late. 

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With today's 44°-25° high/low temperatures in the books for Central Park, the remainder of January needs to average 1.9° below normal to have a normal mean temperature for the month. If, however, the 1/13 0z NAM MOS is correct through Friday, 1/15, the remainder of the month would need to average 2.4° below normal to achieve a normal mean temperature. In many winters, that's not a difficult task. So far, in winter 2015-16, that seems like an almost impossible one.

IMO, a lot will depend on verification of the ECMWF's Arctic air mass for next week.

going to be tough without snow cover and the lakes will modify the air masses as they are still mostly ice free
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Still a long way before calling winter a bust. Before I moved to Austin last January, I had maybe 5-6" of snow total. My home town ended up over 50". Obviously north and east of you ended up with a historic season. Nino winters often come late.

Even if this winter ends up being a bust, I don't mind. It was going to happen sooner or later. Better to get it out of the way now than regretting it later. If I'm wrong about this winter being a dud, then that's fine too.
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Even if this winter ends up being a bust, I don't mind. It was going to happen sooner or later. Better to get it out of the way now than regretting it later. If I'm wrong about this winter being a dud, then that's fine too.

Stop being so positive, it's the number one sign of early dementia.
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Well..... We've now entered the part of winter where it's cool, cool, cool, warm rainy day, cool, cool, etc etc etc

Remember a winter just like this a few years back, obviously not as warm early on, but it was normal or below normal temps, until of course a Low was forming, then it was 39F and heavy rain... ALL winter smh

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Everyone should've known what they were heading into this winter. Having one of the strongest Ninos ever is never a good thing.

That being said any bust calls are very premature.

I'm noticing some folks have not been around lately....predictions of epic blocking and cold seem to have fizzled and here we are in Mid-Jan hoping for a repeat of last year which in itself was a rare  turnaround, which I don't think will happen with this puppy....yeah it's premature but honestly, this morning I found myself kinda relieved I haven't been breaking my back this winter cleaning snow....OMG I might be turning into a normal adult....

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