weatherpruf Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The funny thing is the pattern hasn't been that bad now since about 12/28 or so but we just haven't lucked into anything. The PAC jet is likely the biggest problem now. Well, I remember in 2010-11 we were supposed to have a La Nina with little snow, but the NAO was negative and it was cold and so it didn't matter. Now we have a raging El Nino so nothing else really matters it seems. From what I have read, if it was a week El Nino we could have been in business. I just hope it doesn't usher in a five year long snow drought like 98 did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 We have a good 75 days left to see accumulating snow. Don't know how you can declare winter dead when almost all of this sub forum received more than 50" plus from this point last winter. Smh Because 50 plus winters after a snowless December are rare. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Well, I remember in 2010-11 we were supposed to have a La Nina with little snow, but the NAO was negative and it was cold and so it didn't matter. Now we have a raging El Nino so nothing else really matters it seems. From what I have read, if it was a week El Nino we could have been in business. I just hope it doesn't usher in a five year long snow drought like 98 did. The problem in 98-99 and 99-00 is the waters off the West Coast and GOA were freezing cold, even in 97-98 they were I believe which favored a trof there. That isn't really the case now so I don't see us having that sort of stretch of winters again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 When we had to use the AC on Xmas and there was a tomato plant growing in my backyard, I pretty much expected the winter to go down like this. Some here laid out reasoned arguments why it would turn cold and we would have blocking, but a few consistently contradicted them, at least one or two was a pro. Further, the no-nonsense types in the met business were still calling for a mild finish to winter. Just two days ago I read an article by an atmospheric scientist who also predicted it would remain mild in our parts. Also, we just had two above normal snowfall winters in a row. Nothing is given, but how likely was it that we would see that 3 years running? Stinker winters happen, and on a regular basis. Let's get it over with and hope it isn't a multi year trend. Hope that we have a turnaround, but will be shocked to see much the rest of this year in terms of snow.As I said I'm not throwing in the towel yet. You just have to look at feb 83 for the reason why. I like to go with climatology and febraury is by far the snowiest month right on the coast. And this year the record warm December meant water temps were nuclear warm as we headed in to January. So January had been a rebuilding month, pattern change and cooling down the waters. If anything is going to happen this winter and I think it's during febraury. My new odds for NYC are...+30" 10% 20-30" 30% 10-20" 40% Less then 10" 20% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The problem in 98-99 and 99-00 is the waters off the West Coast and GOA were freezing cold, even in 97-98 they were I believe which favored a trof there. That isn't really the case now so I don't see us having that sort of stretch of winters again Man that was a rough stretch for winter weather fans. Our more recent droughts have been one or two years and then followed by above normal. So maybe next year or the year after we get a big winter again. Now I'm not saying it's impossible to see anything special this year, just that I personally don't expect it based on 53 years experience. Last year was the first time I remember a low-snow December followed by above normal snow, but even so most of the storms were small pain in the neck events. And the mets I read elsewhere ( and here ) seem to think not much is likely to happen. No one has a crystal ball if we did I'd go play some numbers. Then I could buy a resort in the Alps for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 As I said I'm not throwing in the towel yet. You just have to look at feb 83 for the reason why. I like to go with climatology and febraury is by far the snowiest month right on the coast. And this year the record warm December meant water temps were nuclear warm as we headed in to January. So January had been a rebuilding month, pattern change and cooling down the waters. If anything is going to happen this winter and I think it's during febraury. My new odds for NYC are... +30" 10% 20-30" 30% 10-20" 40% Less then 10" 20% That's what I am holding out some slim hope for, something like that. And 83 was our last big storm for TEN years....until the 93 superstorm 10 inches of ice....and in terms of really big storms, our last one before 96. 13 years....where an 8-10 inch storm would fall from time to time and make headlines.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 My confidence level isn't that high for this winter. I'm not feeling the essence of winter. It just feels like something is missing. Sent from my ASUS_Z00AD using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 That's what I am holding out some slim hope for, something like that. And 83 was our last big storm for TEN years....until the 93 superstorm 10 inches of ice....and in terms of really big storms, our last one before 96. 13 years....where an 8-10 inch storm would fall from time to time and make headlines.... Well, I put away my snow gear. I figure that should get us at least 18". Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'm just itching for a nice coastal storm...we haven't had anything good since that storm back in October. Even the FROPAS have been very lackluster with the exception of this past weekend. This Super Nino has been incredibly disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 My confidence level isn't that high for this winter. I'm not feeling the essence of winter. It just feels like something is missing. Sent from my ASUS_Z00AD using Tapatalk Cold air. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Just wondering what changes would we need to make the storm thats 5 days out change from currently depicted as a near-miss to a hit. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 What's new on the storm for the 17th n 18th event. My guess warm and rainy. Any update would be greatful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Cold air. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Not really. It seems that the Pacific doesn't want to cooperate anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 What's new on the storm for the 17th n 18th event. My guess warm and rainy. Any update would be greatful. Your talking about the storm after the storm thats around 90 hours out?. If that is the case it is currently forecasted to go OTS(subject to change) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Meteorologist Ed Valle "Again, teleconnections support COLDER track. It's going to be a matter of how much cold is created via secondary low development." "New Euro is interesting...some snow to the coast, significant still well inland." Not really. It seems that the Pacific doesn't want to cooperate anymore. It's only mid January. Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The coming storm is basically 2/8/13 with a stronger primary, if that primary was weak we would be in business. The air mass in place isn't great and even without the primary this starts as rain but it would easily go to snow everywhere otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 ECMWF has a bias in medium-range toward positive AO. Not so fast. https://t.co/Y2sVhJlgah Backtracked on the positive AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 As an FYI the NAM at 84 at 500 over Texas would lead me to believe the Euro's idea with the 18th is more accurate than the GFS right now. It's fairly flat compared to the GFS which is somewhat against the usual NAM bias at 84. That rule doesn't always work obviously but if it's working this time the GFS is probably going to do a EURO cave soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 As an FYI the NAM at 84 at 500 over Texas would lead me to believe the Euro's idea with the 18th is more accurate than the GFS right now. It's fairly flat compared to the GFS which is somewhat against the usual NAM bias at 84. That rule doesn't always work obviously but if it's working this time the GFS is probably going to do a EURO cave soon Southern Slider FTW http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016011300/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016011300&fh=84&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Southern Slider FTW http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2016011300/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png NAM for president. Seriously though, you'll probably get your southern slider early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 You said that about Saturday's storm as well and that is going to be very far from a southern slider...for all the good it'll do us Relax Mob...... just poking fun but the NAM is OTS for the most part yes??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 That depiction is almost physically impossible, it doesnt weaken the primary and has a forming bomb off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Relax Mob...... just poking fun but the NAM is OTS for the most part yes??? Ha, I saw that too late and edited my message. There's no shame in being wrong with an exact evolution of a storm 8-9 days out, the keeping score on this group by some is a little over the top by some, mother nature has humbled the most brilliant minds for many decades and will likely continue to do so for many more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 Ha, I saw that too late and edited my message. There's no shame in being wrong with an exact evolution of a storm 8-9 days out, the keeping score on this group by some is a little over the top by some, mother nature has humbled the most brilliant minds for many decades and will likely continue to do so for many more. In reality models still aren't too good past 3-4 days. I try to tell fellow meteorologists all the time, some of which fear we may be in trouble as far as our jobs go in 20 years because of how good models get. I have to remind them that overall our 5-6 day forecasts today on major weather systems aren't exactly worlds better than they were in 2000 or 2005 although they are better. The model statistics show that we've tremendously improved but we have to remember there are many benign weather days a year included in those verification results. I would like to see someone breakdown results prior to significant weather systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 In reality models still aren't too good past 3-4 days. I try to tell fellow meteorologists all the time, some of which fear we may be in trouble as far as our jobs go in 20 years because of how good models get. I have to remind them that overall our 5-6 day forecasts today on major weather systems aren't exactly worlds better than they were in 2000 or 2005 although they are better. The model statistics show that we've tremendously improved but we have to remember there are many benign weather days a year included in those verification results. I would like to see someone breakdown results prior to significant weather systemsThis is especially problematic with social media, images of 10 day clown snow maps circulate on a regular basis and people expect it to verify. And I dare you to explain to a religious person that the atmosphere is extremely volitile and that a seagull farting in Hudson Bay can literally be extrapolated into a 40 degree difference for our area a week later, all they hear is blah blah blah God controls the weather and scientists know nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I'll be in central Vermont at 1700'. Making moves ='s snow. I just couldn't take it anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 If it doesn't snow there I'm officially going to loose it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 If it doesn't snow there I'm officially going to loose itlol. I'm rooting for you man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 I read on other thread ,,GFS still warm.. (just for kicks will wait up for EURO ) then by tomm OZ suite if no change then ready to throw in the towel for this event ... Then will patiently await next "Potential" VERY STUPID (imo) for people to cancel winter (its not even Jan 15) ....YES maybe cancel JANUARY ...BUT HECK...FEB AND MARCH COULD STILL BE SNOWFUL (JUST A HUNCH)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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