nyblizz44 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If it wasn't for that funky secondary low developing further SE it probably would have produced a more pronounced CCB but H5 ended up messy.That dynamic is eerily similar to something that happened with you know if I remember correctly then throughout the moisture more towards Eastern Long Island and the city . There was an energy transfer more OTS last second if I remember correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If it wasn't for that funky secondary low developing further SE it probably would have produced a more pronounced CCB but H5 ended up messy. Not sure how the mid levels look yet but this is as close as you are gonna get to a blue bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Just last night the GFS had rain to Montreal and the Primary well into Ontario, it might very well trend back that way but for now things look somewhat more encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Nonsense. A further offshore track would just be a drier run with this setup. The cold air is retreating and you don't have dynamics helping you because the CCB develops too late. I mean as per the GFS I would like the Low a little bit more offshore. Too close for comfort... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Because you have the primary strong and so far North is why the area is too warm for snow. It's not like you have a 1050mb high sitting over Quebec pumping in cold air. The track of the secondary is completely irrelevant unless you're on Long Island. The secondary simply doesn't have the time to tap the colder air to the North because it develops too late for our area and interior New England gets dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Perfect example, the 00z GGEM has a 984mb SE of Montauk and its raining all the way into Central PA and Northern New England. Then Upstate NY and New England gets absolutely crushed as it wraps up and rapidly deepens in the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Perfect example, the 00z GGEM has a 984mb SE of Montauk and its raining all the way into Central PA and Northern New England. Then Upstate NY and New England gets absolutely crushed as it wraps up and rapidly deepens in the Gulf of Maine.Yep, we need that primary to be well SE of it's current location, the good news is that it moved significantly so since last night's runs, but still not good enough for the vast majority of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Because you have the primary strong and so far North is why the area is too warm for snow. It's not like you have a 1050mb high sitting over Quebec pumping in cold air. The track of the secondary is completely irrelevant unless you're on Long Island. The secondary simply doesn't have the time to tap the colder air to the North because it develops too late for our area and interior New England gets dumped on. 2 good quotes fit here; you can't polish a turd and you can put lipstick on a pig but it's still a pig.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 2 good quotes fit here; you can't polish a turd and you can put lipstick on a pig but it's still a pig.... I'm flattered that you would waste one of your five posts per day to say that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm flattered that you would waste one of your five posts per day to say that Agreed. If the GFS was showing a blizzard he wouldn't of posted anything. He's been bragging about this El Niño for almost a year now when in fact it's a wimp compared to 97-98. At least during that niño we had noreaster after noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I don't hate what the GFS does at 174, it would be cool to see some of there vorts explode as they hit the coast, it's obviously way out there but as a whole this run didn't mirror the doom and gloom from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I don't hate what the GFS does at 174, it would be cool to see some of there vorts explode as they hit the coast, it's obviously way out there but as a whole this run didn't mirror the doom and gloom from today. A lot of energy after this weekends storm. I think we do get hit with a storm( snow ) sometime this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 A lot of energy after this weekends storm. I think we do get hit with a storm( snow ) sometime this month. I see a strengthening clipper-to-coastal storm on the GFS for next Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Canadian is a 976 low near the BM. Too warm. Still plenty of time. It will change, for better or worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If we get the trough to dig deeper and get further SE before going neg and the transfer happens earlier we are not out of the game. Too far out to rule out solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 500 MB looking stronger? Snow on front or back end for the city and point East? You need the confluence from the upper low over Quebec to be further south. Too much of that low is moving north with the storm, allowing the trough underneath to negatively tilt and ride a primary up the Ohio Valley. More confluence to the south forces a further south redevelopment. As it is now this would be an inland snow event potentially, focused more into upstate NY and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Canadian is a 976 low near the BM. Too warm. Still plenty of time. It will change, for better or worse... The Canadian is always too warm and or too blown up or some combo of the two. As of now I think this could evolve to be a significant snow just inland and north but I would be surprised if we ultimately got this to be a big one for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If the GFS is right, El Nino rains come back in a big way to California in about a week. It's great news that the Sierras are above average for snow this year, and areas near reservoirs have plenty of water coming now as rain and later on as snowmelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 staying awake for the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 0z GFS individuals. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip00114.gif staying awake for the euro Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Euro develops a really strong coastal on the benchmark and it's a lot cooler. Mostly rain for coastal areas . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 6z GFS looks colder with an earlier transfer. Low is stronger and further east than the 0z run. Don't have soundings, but it looks like snow just NW of city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 ...10* @KFOK..14* here...WOW!...pretty sad when the only thing to get excited about is some radiational cooling.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 6z GFS looks colder with an earlier transfer. Low is stronger and further east than the 0z run. Don't have soundings, but it looks like snow just NW of city. Very little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 6z GFS looks colder with an earlier transfer. Low is stronger and further east than the 0z run. Don't have soundings, but it looks like snow just NW of city.Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 That Pac jet really wants to start crashing into the west in the medium to long range. Get ready for a lot of rain and 50s warm sectors for the next month. If that -NAO were to bite this could have been something but alas that went up in smoke. January is looking to come in +5 or better. Hopefully we get a Hail Mary the next six weeks like in 83 when the stars aligned in an otherwise overwhelmed El Niño pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Need to watch 18th for that s/w diving down the base of the trough after the 17th rain event pulls the baroclinic zone east. Long shot, but the 6z GEFS is very close to the coast with good snows into the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Need to watch 18th for that s/w diving down the base of the trough after the 17th rain event pulls the baroclinic zone east. Long shot, but the 6z GEFS is very close to the coast with good snows into the city. Seems like we couldn't buy ourselves a snow storm this year. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 10hpa stratosphere is severely perturbed now in the LR and displacing over Europe. Today D15 Immediate impacts of a displacement would benefit Europe. Mid and longer term impacts are up in the air. My gut tells me a displacement does us no good in this setup; we need a split. However there is a strong correlation between a displaced PV in mid/late January and a -AO for February/March. More technical explanation provided by Judah Cohen - http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Need to watch 18th for that s/w diving down the base of the trough after the 17th rain event pulls the baroclinic zone east. Long shot, but the 6z GEFS is very close to the coast with good snows into the city.That storm also has much colder air in front of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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