pazzo83 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Everyone done now? Can we get back to discussing the weather? Hahaha, nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I was gonna say, a completely snowless winter (<= Trace) is probably more improbable than a -7 AO (which per Don would be a one-way 3.5 SD, which is what, 1 in 10,000 approximately?). Don, what do you typically use to calculate probability based on SD over a normal distribution? I was using the standard normal density function. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 A quick note regarding the AO-/PNA+: As noted previously, the frequency of measurable snow events increases by about 9% during January. Nearly two-thirds of January's 6" or greater snowfalls have occurred with an AO-/PNA+. This does not mean that every event is likely to produce measurable snow. It does mean that odds are improved for measurable snowfall events. So far, winter 2015 has had no measurable snow events. With the AO-/PNA+ forecast to continue for at least the next 15 days, I'd be surprised if we don't have 1 or 2 measurable snow events by the end of the month for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Things are far from a disaster; this isn't December not even close. There's still several weeks for winter to strike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Wow, I'm glad my vioelnt rant didn't go through. In terms of sensible weather though, let's get a little snow tomorrow so we can at least have measurable of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Things are far from a disaster; this isn't December not even close. There's still several weeks for winter to strike. It is only Jan 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It is only Jan 11th.We didn't even get a serious event until the end of Jan last year and we ended with over 40" of snow. It turned out to be a great winter after being shut out for almost 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Riddle me this.....if winter 2015-2016 overall is a dud except for a few BL cold snaps and maybe ONE fluke 6"-12" storm in mid February, would canceling winter in mid-January be acceptable looking back post-winter or would it be wrong all together because there was 1 fluke snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I was gonna say, a completely snowless winter (<= Trace) is probably more improbable than a -7 AO (which per Don would be a one-way 3.5 SD, which is what, 1 in 10,000 approximately?). Don, what do you typically use to calculate probability based on SD over a normal distribution? I was using the standard normal density function. FWIW, there's a quick online calculator that anyone can use. If one is using a two-tailed test, one needs to multiply the probability by 2 (you know this, but others may not). So, if one uses 1.96 sigma (Z value), one gets a value of approximately 0.975. 1-area within 1.96 sigma of the mean is the tail value (0.025). The probability of each tail is 2.5% so the probability of something 1.96 or more sigma above or below the mean is 5%. The calculator can be found at: http://sampson.byu.edu/courses/z2p2z-calculator.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I do wish we were seeing some classic nor'easters like in 98 with this Nino even if they were all rainers. When the precip strikes we've done well thus far but it hasn't been from a strong coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Riddle me this.....if winter 2015-2016 overall is a dud except for a few BL cold snaps and maybe ONE fluke 6"-12" storm in mid February, would canceling winter in mid-January be acceptable looking back post-winter or would it be wrong all together because there was 1 fluke snow event?Don't cancel it just to be safe. Better yet, express yourself in vague innuendos with no inference whatsoever and just claim you were right regardless of what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Riddle me this.....if winter 2015-2016 overall is a dud except for a few BL cold snaps and maybe ONE fluke 6"-12" storm in mid February, would canceling winter in mid-January be acceptable looking back post-winter or would it be wrong all together because there was 1 fluke snow event? Wgaf. "Cancelling" winter is an exercise in mental masturbation to either be first to make a call on a weather forum for childish reasons, or to to be purposely pessimistic for reverse psychology reasons. How about we stop worrying about such nonsensical crap and attempt to teach, learn, and discuss the weather without the childish measuring contests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Atrocious runs today. Blocking never occurred. ENSO 1,1.2 now warming again. Just about that time boys and girls. So should i sell the snow shovel you told me to buy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 FWIW, there's a quick online calculator that anyone can use. If one is using a two-tailed test, one needs to multiply the probability by 2 (you know this, but others may not). So, if one uses 1.96 sigma (Z value), one gets a value of approximately 0.975. 1-area within 1.96 sigma of the mean is the tail value (0.025). The probability of each tail is 2.5% so the probability of something 1.96 or more sigma above or below the mean is 5%. The calculator can be found at: http://sampson.byu.edu/courses/z2p2z-calculator.html Very nice, thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 So should i sell the snow shovel you told me to buy?If you don't want to take a hit, just light a match in the atmosphere and induce the stratospheric warming (I'll lend you my high horse if you can't reach) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 So should i sell the snow shovel you told me to buy? Lol. Nobody from the Mid Atlantic or Northeast will buy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Lol. Nobody from the Mid Atlantic or Northeast will buy it I bet Metfan (snow88) will buy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The ensembles have been atrocious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Wgaf. "Cancelling" winter is an exercise in mental masturbation to either be first to make a call on a weather forum for childish reasons, or to to be purposely pessimistic for reverse psychology reasons. How about we stop worrying about such nonsensical crap and attempt to teach, learn, and discuss the weather without the childish measuring contests. Nope, we are cancelling it bro. Everyone move your calendars directly to March 1st at 23:59:59 tonight. The sun will set tomorrow at 5:47pm EST. Spring Training will be in full swing, and the Nats and Mets will be playing each other in a couple days. Thanks everyone for coming out this year, better luck next year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Nope, we are cancelling it bro. Everyone move your calendars directly to March 1st at 23:59:59 tonight. The sun will set tomorrow at 5:47pm EST. Spring Training will be in full swing, and the Nats and Mets will be playing each other in a couple days. Thanks everyone for coming out this year, better luck next year! Banned for talking about the mets n nats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Nope, we are cancelling it bro. Everyone move your calendars directly to March 1st at 23:59:59 tonight. The sun will set tomorrow at 5:47pm EST. Spring Training will be in full swing, and the Nats and Mets will be playing each other in a couple days. Thanks everyone for coming out this year, better luck next year! I hope Daniel Murphy suffers some sort of non-painful/life threatening injury or condition which makes him awful. **** you nats. **** you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Wgaf. "Cancelling" winter is an exercise in mental masturbation to either be first to make a call on a weather forum for childish reasons, or to to be purposely pessimistic for reverse psychology reasons. How about we stop worrying about such nonsensical crap and attempt to teach, learn, and discuss the weather without the childish measuring contests. Im not canceling anything. It was a hypothetical question in a banter thread. I try to teach, learn, and discuss majority of the time past few years. Again, was a simple rhetorical-type question to maybe loosen some of the tension in here. Legit sorry it rubbed you the wrong way. I will avoid this in future posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I hope Daniel Murphy suffers some sort of non-painful/life threatening injury or condition which makes him awful. **** you nats. **** you! Oh you know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I hope Daniel Murphy suffers some sort of non-painful/life threatening injury or condition which makes him awful. **** you nats. **** you! That signing showed how much of a mess their front office has become. The most telling part of the Nats offseason was the offer they made to Heyward, it basically told everyone they either have no intention of resigning Harper or know they have no chance to do so. I wonder if he has already told them in some form he is going to test the market and not give them any sort of discount. You cannot have two 300 mill OFers on the same roster so I have to think they know something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 That signing showed how much of a mess their front office has become. The most telling part of the Nats offseason was the offer they made to Heyward, it basically told everyone they either have no intention of resigning Harper or know they have no chance to do so. I wonder if he has already told them in some form he is going to test the market and not give them any sort of discount. You cannot have two 300 mill OFers on the same roster so I have to think they know something. Murphy will crush the Mets for years to come. He is the next Chipper Jones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I hope Daniel Murphy suffers some sort of non-painful/life threatening injury or condition which makes him awful. **** you nats. **** you! Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Im not canceling anything. It was a hypothetical question in a banter thread. I try to teach, learn, and discuss majority of the time past few years. Again, was a simple rhetorical-type question to maybe loosen some of the tension in here. Legit sorry it rubbed you the wrong way. I will avoid this in future posts. I know you werent cancelling anything. It didnt rub me the wrong way, the constant trolling, rushing to be first to claim something, unwillingness to acknowledge incorrect posts (all by numerous posters, im not singling anyone out) is what rubs me the wrong way. It doesnt matter if we should have cancelled winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I bet Metfan (snow88) will buy it I actually did buy one this weekend...but only because they were on sale and all of mine were crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Murphy will crush the Mets for years to come. He is the next Chipper Jones. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Wow Want to buy my snow shovel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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