IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The primary low is too strong and gets too far north before transfering. Everything still looks like crap as of now. Imagine the meltdowns on here if it's a blue bomb 30 miles NW, a mixed bag in the city and rain for coastal NJ and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Imagine the meltdowns on here if it's a blue bomb 30 miles NW, a mixed bag in the city and rain for coastal NJ and LI I'd expect a few meltdowns but the majority would accept it (hopefully) and be happy for interior folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Really really still holding out hope for February. This weekends storm has no shot at the coast as currently modeled. Let's see what happens. I wouldn't place any certainties until Thursday nights runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Imagine the meltdowns on here if it's a blue bomb 30 miles NW, a mixed bag in the city and rain for coastal NJ and LI 30 miles? LOL. There is no snow in this setup for hundreds of miles inland. This isn't 1984-1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'd expect a few meltdowns but the majority would accept it (hopefully) and be happy for interior folks. It is what it is. Until we are able to create a Dr. Who type weather machine, there is little we can do but understand the incredible machine known as mother nature. I wont give up hope till Wednesday, when the Clipper is under our belt and we see how it affects the weekend set up. Maybe the 50/50 sets up stronger than progged. After all the weather very much functions like domino effect, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 30 miles? LOL. There is no snow in this setup for hundreds of miles inland. This isn't 1985-1995. He said if. And yea no cold air to work with whatsoever. Confluence lifts out too quickly and the primary gets too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 He said if. And yea no cold air to work with whatsoever. Confluence lifts out too quickly and the primary gets too far north. And I am saying no chance in hell in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I'd expect a few meltdowns but the majority would accept it (hopefully) and be happy for interior folks.is there a way this trends to a major snowstorm or is that off the table at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 And I am saying no chance in hell in this setup. As modeled now that's certainly fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 And I am saying no chance in hell in this setup. The 12z GFS was pretty damn close. Had snow within 50 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 is there a way this trends to a major snowstorm or is that off the table at this point? We need help from the Pac, less phasing in "the west" and the confluence to hold on longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 And I am saying no chance in hell in this setup. I guess its over 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I am completed astounded at how the long range look went from great about a week ago to terrible. At least this is what i am gathering from commentary onthe mjo and epo. The ma thread is completely dissmayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 We need help from the Pac, less phasing in "the west" and the confluence to hold on longer.The raging STJ needs to slow down or this will keep happening. It is a firehose crashing into any +PNA that forms and it deamplifies everything downstream from the west coast and prevents SWs from digging on the east coast. There is no sign of a letup in the STJ through the end of this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Atrocious runs today. Blocking never occurred. ENSO 1,1.2 now warming again. Just about that time boys and girls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Atrocious runs today. Blocking never occurred. ENSO 1,1.2 now warming again. Just about that time boys and girls. Sarcasm? Sent from my SM-G360T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Atrocious runs today. Blocking never occurred. ENSO 1,1.2 now warming again. Just about that time boys and girls.ugly. Looking back the blocking seemed over done but now it's barely even there. Needed the Nino to fall apart not hold steady. Maybe we get a lucky storm but I agree we are in big trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The 4 days prior are cold and the 4 days after are frigid. We know it's salt in the wound but the pattern over the next 10 days is cold , but with a cutter. SW that tilt west of the MISS cut just as the expected blocking escapes at the same time. There is no warm air in N/A to be found over the next 10 days except in the east for 36 hours as this comes through. The L/R remains cold . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Like mice falling into the sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Atrocious runs today. Blocking never occurred. ENSO 1,1.2 now warming again. Just about that time boys and girls. Warmed .02 after falling .09 over the prior 2 weeks. Nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The 4 days prior are cold and the 4 days after are frigid. We know it's salt in the wound but the pattern over the next 10 days is cold , but with a cutter. SW that tilt west of the MISS cut just as the expected blocking escapes at the same time. There is no warm air in N/A to be found over the next 10 days except in the east for 36 hours as this comes through. The L/R remains cold . even with the mjo going into the warm phases? What keeps us cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 even with the mjo going into the warm phases? What keeps us cold? The next 10 are cold. We always expected a break between the 25 - 5th . Been talked about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The raging STJ needs to slow down or this will keep happening. It is a firehose crashing into any +PNA that forms and it deamplifies everything downstream from the west coast and prevents SWs from digging on the east coast. There is no sign of a letup in the STJ through the end of this month This is help from the Pac I was talking about lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The 4 days prior are cold and the 4 days after are frigid. We know it's salt in the wound but the pattern over the next 10 days is cold , but with a cutter. SW that tilt west of the MISS cut just as the expected blocking escapes at the same time. There is no warm air in N/A to be found over the next 10 days except in the east for 36 hours as this comes through. The L/R remains cold . It's all wasted cold if the pattern doesn't deliver snow. if that's the case, bring back the December pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It's all wasted cold if the pattern doesn't deliver snow. if that's the case, bring back the December pattern.winter is supposed to be cold. I was sick seeing bugs and such in december when we deal with it most of the year anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 even with the mjo going into the warm phases? What keeps us cold? I don't even look at MJO forecasts anymore, they have been wrong so often its not even worth bothering with, and sometimes there is a 3-4 week lag too, so even if it changes phases in 10 days it may be almost March before any impact occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 even with the mjo going into the warm phases? What keeps us cold? Euro goes into the cold phases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 When people see a 7SD anomaly forecast for ANYTHING, let alone the AO, they should treat it with incredible suspicion unless it has widespread and sustained confirmation on virtually all modeling. Don can probably clarify the math, but 7SD means the probability of such an outcome is approximately 1.3x10^-12, which means essentially that it is 0. Correct. A few quick things, I'm hesitant to refer to the AO index as denoting standard deviations from the norm. The daily values have been "normed" against monthly values, meaning that one isn't dealing with a true standardized figure. From NCEP: Each daily value has been standardized by the standard deviation of the monthly AO index from 1979-2000. I don't have the loading values, so I can't compare means against which the Index's values are measured. However, if one examines the standard deviation for the monthly mean AO Index values for January, one gets 1.598 for the 1979-2000 period. If one examines the standard deviation for the daily AO Index values during January for the same period, one gets a standard deviation of 2.001. That implies that a daily AO Index value of +/- 5.000 is actually less than a +/- 5 sigma departure. Not surprisingly, even as a true 5 sigma departure would be a roughly 1-in-1.75 million occurrence, there have been 9 values of AO +5.000 or above and 17 AO values of -5.000 during the January 1950-2015 timeframe (2,045 dates). That's why, for example, even as the probability of a 5 sigma deviation (above or below the mean) is about 1-in-1.75 million, one has seen far more such values during the 1950-2015 period than implied by that figure. Not having the loading values, I suspect that one can approximate the actual standardized figures for January by dividing the AO Index's daily value by about 2.05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro goes into the cold phases From what I recall the Euro schooled the GFS on te MJO last winter, this winter I have not looked but I believe both models have been somewhat lousy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Everyone done now? Can we get back to discussing the weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.