IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The trough is digging all the way to the Rio Grande. The 06z run was barely into the TX panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Significantly more interaction between the lead southern shortwave and the energy dropping down through the plains. Nearly closed off at 15z Friday over Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Regardless of the final outcome, there should be a large, wrapped up cyclone this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The trough axis is about 500 miles further Southeast. Near Little Rock as opposed to Kansas City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It almost closed off a big 500mb low over Western KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It almost closed off a big 500mb low over Western KY.It's an UGLY run, it cuts way too far west and the coastal never really takes over till it's way too late) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 50/50 low was in good position. Looks like this will transfer to the coast but it's going to be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It's an UGLY run, it cuts way too far west and the coastal never really takes over. It's not a bad run for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 As lift said, it's an improved run aloft (for those looking for trends to be friends with) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It's not a bad run for the interior.Yeah, it ends up being significantly better than 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 We definitely aren't there yet but we had several improvements this run. 1) The lead short wave energy was slower, which allowed for more interaction with the trough. 2) Because of the greater interaction with the lead shortwave, the trough was able to dig much further Southeast. 3) The 50/50 low was in a good place, producing blocking in SE Canada. If, and that's a big if, we can get the 500mb low to close off over KY, I think we'll be in business. Our biggest storms usually occur with a large closed 500mb low over KY/TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 As I said, it's not a great run but it does have some snow for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Most of this for the coast is from the day 2 system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Although it will probably be gone next run, nice little event on the 19th on the GFS with an inverted trough type feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 On the note concerning the less negative AO than earlier forecast, the AO is still forecast to bottom out near -4.000. During El Niño winters, most such cases (>70%) have been followed by a predominantly negative AO in February and nearly half of such cases saw a strongly negative AO (-1.000 or below monthly average). In contrast, most of the La Niña cases saw a predominantly positive AO in February. So, even as I still think that January will wind up on the cool side of normal from mid-month +/- a few days to the end, I also believe February should not be written off, at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 As I said, it's not a great run but it does have some snow for the interior. The GFS tries to transfer but it doesn't in the end. Strange run. However, this run was much better than 06z. The energy was much further SE, so hopefully that can continue in later runs. Hopefully the GEFS can shed some light on if an early transfer is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 That 500mb map is not bad at all. Shift things a bit S and E in future runs and we might all be in business. Would think with this look and the phasing energy, rapid intensification of a secondary would be a good bet, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GGEM is 990mb east of ACY. Looks good for most of the interior and warm for most of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 06Z 12Z Look how the energy shifted SE from IA/MO to KY/TN. If it shifts a little further SE, then we'll be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Good trends so far today. All you can ask for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 That 500mb map is not bad at all. Shift things a bit S and E in future runs and we might all be in business. Would think with this look and the phasing energy, rapid intensification of a secondary would be a good bet, verbatim. Yep. That run was pretty close to showing something much more promising. We're still in the game cause we have time on our side. Hope it wasn't a typical GFS model swing but more of a trend in the right direction instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 All in all I think its safe to say this was a step in the right directon from a model that , generally speaking, doesnt handle coastals terribly well and particularly outside of a 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Maybe doorman will get his out to sea solution. Though I don't support that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 UKMET: Looks like it removed that pesky 996 mb LP near BUF. It looks to pass near the Cape in between panels, and intensifies to 968 mb near Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 UKMET: Looks like it removed that pesky 996 mb LP near BUF. It looks to pass near the Cape in between panels, and intensifies to 968 mb near Nova Scotia. That got my attention. Just when you think its over they pull you back in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Look at the low in ocean east of Canada, looking at past model runs off gfs, the pressures have been higher, this run basically bombs that low there. 12z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The UKMET is a bomb, gets down to 968mb over Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Big Daddy ---Woof -Pattern Perfect all B.S - imho is that a transfer or two separate shortwaves??? http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The GEFS mean has a low near Buffalo and a secondary over DE. Looks wet but warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 rain is a bigger concern than otsbump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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