Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 SSW has to be one of the most overused phrases on this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 On most of the models it is not living up to it's potential YET ! I think many of us get ahead of ourselves thinking it's much later in the month -- it's only January 11 !!! So far this year is playing out just like last year on January 11 - there wasn't much hope and we all know the rest of the story of what happened the rest of last winter. As for the GFS model - shouldn't consider it past 84 hours IMO. I am not giving up like last winter though like some people already have on the internet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 SSW has to be one of the most overused phrases on this forum Not only on this forum, all over the internet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The pattern isnt living up to its potential. Really sucks.Didnt the pattern just change? How can it not live up to potential when it hasnt even happened yet. People have to relax in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The GFS had a clue. Crazy times. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Not yet. Lets see what happens with the clipper. The handling of the PV is huge. The models have shown wild swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Didnt the pattern just change? How can it not live up to potential when it hasnt even happened yet. People have to relax in here. I was pissed off about the models last night. I am fine now. Patience is key, just like last year. Many mets think a ssw is going to happen at the end of this month to disrupt the PV . That would make February and March cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Correct still lots of time but Nino is still strong, jet is too fast for buckling and we went from an epic look on models to a cutter in 3 days. Hard not to be disheartened by that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 This could be the worst producing epic pattern of all time. Up to an inch from a clipper Tuesday night might just be the highlight of the epic pattern, the jury is still out on whether or not the January 17-18 system will produce for us. However, with a primary low in the Great Lakes, it is going to be darn near impossible unless a secondary can develop around OBX and intensify rapidly. Models are not showing this scenario at this juncture. Not sure who it was that claimed the Jan 18 system was well ots, but since the surface low (primary) is clearly well West of the area, Im not sure exactly how one can claim victory at this being ots....unless u were referring to the weak surface reflection along the stationary/warm front that is progged to be off the coast? Which is something different....apples and oranges. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Well considering "TODAY" was the start of the new pattern regime I hope you didn't expect to wake up to a foot of snow. Secondly it's been said here 100x even great patterns don't have to produce. You will have a trough in the SE and ridging over the top over the next 2 weeks . It will only produce If you can slow the PAC down for more than 2 days , but it doesn't have too. So better to take a wait and see approach. Cold doesn't equal snow and people should not look at systems outside 5 days or you will just get disappointed. The primary is going to the lakes and not OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I am not giving up like last winter though like some people already have on the internet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Amazing a lakes cutter with blocking...just ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Amazing a lakes cutter with blocking...just ouch This winter is looking eery similiar to last January where we had nothing favorable until late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Amazing a lakes cutter with blocking...just ouch The blocking doesn't prevent the cutter, it just forces the redevelopment, which does occur, but it's not lining up for us just yet. Weenies are jumping all over American Weather. Just let things play out. It's a highly complex setup with multiple shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The blocking doesn't prevent the cutter, it just forces the redevelopment, which does occur, but it's not lining up for us just yet. Weenies are jumping all over American Weather. Just let things play out. It's a highly complex setup with multiple shortwaves. We won't know until Thursday when the clipper clears the area and the shortwave comes onshore. Even then, the setup is highly complex and the outcome will still differ. People need to learn to not take OP runs past day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I know you can't call off winter yet. It's still early however at this point I wouldn't expect record breaking snowfall averages this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I know you can't call off winter yet. It's still early however at this point I wouldn't expect record breaking snowfall averages this season. Record breaking? The closest that NYC ever came to break the record was in 2010-2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 2 things. Here are the temperature anomalies January 1st through January 10th, this speaks for itself, Philly is almost +4 for the month as one example: https://mobile.twitter.com/antmasiello/status/686538484098674688/photos Second, I tried telling you guys that the roaring, roided up STJ was going to be a serious problem and I was attacked. Look at what happened to next weekend's snow threat thanks to the raging STJ (super El Niño) crashing into the +PNA and breaking it down and causing downstream pressure rises on the east coast. And low and behold the models have shifted to a cutter. Total southern stream domination thanks to the Nino. Also, I warned that the calls for "rapid Nino weakening" and a "east to west" collapse were also likely wrong and what happened? The weakening has been very slow to say the least. We are at mid January, regions 3.4 and 4 are slowly cooling from upwelling ongoing there and regions 1+2 and 3 have warmed. So what you have taking shape is a west to east not east to west collapse. I mentioned it before but the models have a strong MJO wave going into phase 2 again and the associated IO convection fires at the end of this month and going into February. The AO, due to the move in forcing, goes right back up to neutral/positive because it was all tropospherically driven and we still have yet to see a true SSW despite the calls that it's coming since November. With nothing stratospherically to drive the NAO and AO negative, once the forcing goes back into the IO, they go positive and it gets mild once again. Also, expect the EPO to go very positive once again. I'll admit as I did earlier, my call for a cold and snowy February is probably in real serious peril. I'll admit it now because I see what is coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I know you can't call off winter yet. It's still early however at this point I wouldn't expect record breaking snowfall averages this season. I think forecasters were just either side of N . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Why are people saying that it's going to be warm because of phase 2? Phase 2 is a cold phase during the winter, not a warm phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Why are people saying that it's going to be warm because of phase 2? Phase 2 is a cold phase during the winter, not a warm phase. Because some people don't understand! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 maybe it was never an epic pattern to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Why are people saying that it's going to be warm because of phase 2? Phase 2 is a cold phase during the winter, not a warm phase. The lagged MJO composite anomalies for January-March build ridging in the East. As a result, the typical evolution features cold giving way to milder anomalies. Personally, I think the blocking will generally hold and we'll wind up with a colder than normal anomaly following mid-month +/- a few days through the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The lagged MJO composite anomalies for January-March build ridging in the East. As a result, the typical evolution features cold giving way to milder anomalies. Personally, I think the blocking will generally hold and we'll wind up with a colder than normal anomaly following mid-month +/- a few days through the end of January. Thanks Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 maybe it was never an epic pattern to begin with-7SD AO-4SD NAO forecast at the time .Don wrote a great piece at the time that showed how those anomalies compared to other periods with the same set up . It has backed off , but at the time anomalous blocking had shown up on the ensembles for several days. It's still a good pattern and it's there In the means over the next 10 to 15 days. Everyone here knows there are no guarantees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I think the pattern has changed and it will mostly benefit interior sections and maybe well north and west of the cities, but not enough for the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Surprised we are at +4 for Jan....seems like it had been cold outside of yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I think the pattern has changed and it will mostly benefit interior sections and maybe well north and west of the cities, but not enough for the big cities. I'm going to be patient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Surprised we are at +4 for Jan....seems like it had been cold outside of yesterdaya massive one day anomaly coupled with a few smaller ones will do that (especially juts 10 days into a month) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Both saying how you can't take the models seriously so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Surprised we are at +4 for Jan....seems like it had been cold outside of yesterdayWe are not. KNYC is 3.4 after 1 day put 1.8 on.Always double check his work. Will back back BN in a week GFS -AO -NAO -EPO heads to N back to - For rjay 1.2 cooled .9 over the last 2 weeks added only .2 this week . This is collapsing east to west /supported by the guidance and the verifications over the last 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The lead southern shortwave at 21z Thursday is hanging back a bit more on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.