WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It might not rain, but the snow won't accumulate at those temperatures.this. Still getting a nice dusting which will stick till at least the afternoon when the strongest part of the day melts it. I have a feeling that the models start turning around tonight for a bit more consensus. My guess is they'll turn more snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Watch how close the 0Z GFS prog relates to this WPC cast just a wild guess lol 0z Sunday the 17th from the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 00z GFS no bueno. If someone wants me to post maps I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Watch how close the 0Z GFS prog relates to this WPC cast just a wild guess lol It was a pretty wild guess, it cuts well west of us (I guess it may have been a miniscule improvement over the 18Z aloft, but it's like 2 midgets arguing over who's taller) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It's the same damn lead save that cuts, there is some super late redevelopment well NE of us but it probably only matter if you live in VT, NH or Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It was a pretty wild guess, it cuts well west of us (I guess it may have been a miniscule improvement over the 18Z aloft, but it's like 2 midgets arguing over who's taller) yup...and the secondary winds upoff the coast of MA bundle up with your umbrellas handy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 yup...and the secondary winds upoff the coast of MATrue, but as a pretty potent storm. If the blockign that's in place forces the redevelopment a little earlier we'll have a different outcome, although the lead wave being that far NW is never a good thing, even of the coastal really goes to town the lead wave already cut us off from the best cold air source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 If you feel like nitpicking for silver linings, the blocking stays intact significantly longer than preceding runs. It may or may not make a difference in future runs but it's never a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The trends recently havent been good at all for next weekends storm. GFS and GGEM show a lakes cutter due to the fact that the PV is in the wrong storm and its weak. Now If the Euro shows the same thing, it will be really worrisome. I say lets see what happens after the clipper. It might change but right now, it's worrisome. Am I throwing in the towel for the winter? No but I dont like what I am seeing for next weekend as I look more in depth in regards to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Watch how close the 0Z GFS prog relates to this WPC cast just a wild guess lol 0z Sunday the 17th from the GFS So it's not wide right ? It's a cutter correct ? Wana make sure we got your forecast down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 JC...my point is not just the individual members inside one ENS (GEFS) for example I posted the 500mb charts from all three big guns to me the projected 500mb pattern from the ENS --- ATM says OTS for the 17 -18th threat is a very valid option ? Which is it ? Wide right ? Wide left ? Or does that not matter. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The trends recently havent been good at all for next weekends storm. GFS and GGEM show a lakes cutter due to the fact that the PV is in the wrong storm and its weak. Now If the Euro shows the same thing, it will be really worrisome. I say lets see what happens after the clipper. It might change but right now, it's worrisome. Am I throwing in the towel for the winter? No but I dont like what I am seeing for next weekend as I look more in depth in regards to the models.Look at the bright side, the GFS is markedly approved overall. Forget about this strom, look at the LR, sure it changes every run but if we lose our only positive poster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 So it's not wide right ? It's a cutter correct ? Wana make sure we got your forecast down. IT GON RAIN IN JERSEY NEXT SUNDAY --Paulie secondary is right and north of us on that GFS prog OTS for the southern shortwave you see that??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 IT GON RAIN IN JERSEY NEXT SUNDAY --Paulie Well then that's a bad forecast by you . You've been shouting OTS. Your mess not mine Tom. I never touched this one Even when perma pressed. BN 11 thru the 25 th It can rain in cold patterns. Just unlucky ones. But this is not OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Well then that's a bad forecast by you . You've been shouting OTS. Your mess not mine Tom. I never touched this one Even when perma pressed. BN 11 thru the 25 th It can rain in cold patterns. Just unlucky ones. But this is not OTS psst look above my friend ^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 psst look above my friend ^^^^ Lol. The primary goes to the lakes now. Pls stop putting a band aide on a shotgun wound. There was never a center to Detroit , the models are now turning the SW neg in the panhandle and ejecting LP to the lakes. That's new to today's guidance. The fact that some surface feature escapes was not the forecast , you were touring the main SW was going OTS. I'm not one of these kids. Don't repair bullet holes w duct tape here bro . You said OTS, not a cutter w the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Lol. The primary goes to the lakes now. Pls stop putting a band aide on a shotgun wound. There was never a center to Detroit , the models are now turning the SW neg in the panhandle and ejecting LP to the lakes. That's new to today's guidance. The fact that some surface feature escapes was not the forecast , you were touring the main SW was going OTS. I'm not one of these kids. Don't repair bullet holes w duct tape here bro . You said OTS, not a cutter w the primary. Please don't muddy the waters Cutter west and north from the 12z progs that coastal hugger is the one thats OTS we done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 My agenda ANT..... is to keep you honest!!!! Canadian ens http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens®ion=eus&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016010912&fh=222&xpos=0&ypos=212 https://youtu.be/QdJ3qWlRebg Well the euro ens makes me look like a fool 24hr GFS comp at 250mb for the 18th (chaotic changes) not good..... YESTERDAY TODAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Right ...that surface low on the water (off the coast) was the focus of those disco's that energy is out to sea on the 0z GFS progs never a cutter to be found there that is the new storm ATM from today"s progs my focus and forecast are sound then and now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 0z GGEM ensemble mean has a low on the benchmark at hour 168. Plenty of cold for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 0z GGEM ensemble mean has a low on the benchmark at hour 168. Plenty of cold for the area. Even JC has pretty much given up. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Even JC has pretty much given up. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Ehh I wouldn't until after the clipper passes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Right ...that surface low on the water (off the coast) was the focus of those disco's that energy is out to sea on the 0z GFS progs never a cutter to be found there that is the new storm ATM from today"s progs my focus and forecast are sound Well we agree , this is new so it makes your original forecast wrong Tom 25 and P cloudy is different than the 50 and the rain the GFS has . That's the difference between a shunt and a cutter. Not saying it wasn't sound , but we bust when the guidance changes and right now the guidance is flipping. The day the GFS at 18z showed 2 ft of snow I posted great patten but caution don't bite outside 5 days. I stuck to it. That's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Fellas it's still 6 days away. So much could change its not even funny! Enjoy the one incher Tuesday night and look forward to the tracking this week. I'm for sure waiting for the euro tonight cause I'm a fiend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Fellas it's still 6 days away. So much could change its not even funny! Enjoy the one incher Tuesday night and look forward to the tracking this week. I'm for sure waiting for the euro tonight cause I'm a fiend! By this point last week, today's threat was pretty much done for -- as snow, that is. I know the scenarios are different, but unless the GFS and CMC have gone completely bonkers, I think this next storm chance is a rainmaker. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro looks like the GGEM. Cutter next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro looks like the GGEM. Cutter next weekend.terrible trends today but not ready to throw towel in just yet ..let's see where we stand by Wed 12Z and oz suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro looks like the GGEM. Cutter next weekend. Frustrating that we might have to deal with a cutter after everyone has been talking about good blocking being in place. But at least the long range is cold, so there will be more chances if next weekend fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Frustrating that we might have to deal with a cutter after everyone has been talking about good blocking being in place. The pattern isnt living up to its potential. Really sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 If .....heartaches were nickles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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