PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Model volatility is significantly higher than normal right now on large scale pattern influences, let alone small shortwaves. With that said, I do think the weakening of the block is significant on the Euro Ens and likely MJO induced to a degree.I just can't buy a weekend solution until Wed . There are so many shortwaves In the pattern and I don't think the models can see if the PNA holds or something knocks it down and flattens the flow .In addition the heights in Canada are too volatile run to run. Cutters to shunts . So I just will not touch it here . I like the Euro and Canadian from the 11th the 25th but the D 15 GFS looks deeper than both of them . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I just can't buy a weekend solution until Wed . There are so many shortwaves In the pattern and I don't think the models can see if the PNA holds or something knocks it down and flattens the flow . . I've been of the opinion that there's a storm from the 15-18 timeframe, and it looks like that's the case. That's about all I've gleaned from the models recently (talking snow/coastal storm here, not pattern overall) and I'm not even looking at the finer details yet. I'd expect model silliness this week and a lot of stressed out meteorologists and weenies alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I just can't buy a weekend solution until Wed . There are so many shortwaves In the pattern and I don't think the models can see if the PNA holds or something knocks it down and flattens the flow . In addition the heights in Canada are too volatile run to run. Cutters to shunts . So I just will not touch it here . I like the Euro and Canadian from the 11th the 15th but the D 15 GFS looks deeper than both of them . Reading between the lines translation is you pretty much don't think it's going to snow. I think if you thought at all there was any decent chance you would be talking about it. The chances of an inch of snow in the next 10 days in NYC are less than 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 While we bicker about 8 day tracks and who's wrong and right about pattern change, yeah it's changed some but it still stinks, the truth is by the end of the weekend (between now and then looks pretty lifeless in the NYC area) the winter is half over. Who knows what will happen but it's been a downright putrid ski season, snowmobile season, ice skating, ice fishing, holiday weather, currier and yves, snow plowing , storm chasing season. It happens, what can you do, but it's just about halfway over now for the coastal plain and up and down the east it's been as downright ugly as it gets. And I think most would agree they like the front half of winter better than the back, I'll take snow anytime I can get it but it doesn't mean as much in March as it does in December or the new year. Well said, if we get through Jan with nothing ( a real possibility ) I will be turning my attention to an early spring, and hoping we are not going through another 5-10 year period of mild winters...which is always possible too. Lived through em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Well said, if we get through Jan with nothing ( a real possibility ) I will be turning my attention to an early spring, and hoping we are not going through another 5-10 year period of mild winters...which is always possible too. Lived through em. In general the possible shift to a cold AMO doesn't favor snowy winters or cold winters because the NAO tends to run positive and the Eastern US storm track tends to be less active but we are a ways off yet before the colder AMO truly sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 In general the possible shift to a cold AMO doesn't favor snowy winters or cold winters because the NAO tends to run positive and the Eastern US storm track tends to be less active but we are a ways off yet before the colder AMO truly sets in. I have heard this discussion in various forums but even in the mild periods we still managed some good storms, but they were years apart; and in those days 8 inches was a good storm. We had the Jan and April storms in 82 and the Feb 83 blizzard, and one decent one in Jan 87 but that was pretty much it for noteworthy storms in that period. Worse, because it was so rare, no one was ever prepared when these storms hit, the Jan 87 storm being a particular disaster because it struck mid morning on a weekday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Reading between the lines translation is you pretty much don't think it's going to snow. I think if you thought at all there was any decent chance you would be talking about it. The chances of an inch of snow in the next 10 days in NYC are less than 10%I think people here know if I have a real opinion I go all in .I like the pattern at 500 for the next 15 days and i think its BN but I just can't bite in my usual fashion on any SW because there are just too many moving parts that the models are having a hard time solving. I think when it comes to any storm between the 15th and 18th I would just wait until we get closer however the guidance is focusing on this period. I would rather go all in on the cold and be cautious on any snow , if I'm not sure I'm just not sure. If I see it , you will know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I think people here know if I have a real opinion I go all in . I like the pattern at 500 for the next 15 days and i think its BN but I just can't bite in my usual fashion on any SW because there are just too many moving parts that the models are having a hard time solving. I think when it comes to any storm between the 15th and 18th I would just wait until we get closer. I would rather go all in on the cold and be cautious on any snow , if I'm not sure I'm just not sure. If I see it , you will know. Aside from flurries to a coating Tuesday from the clipper, NYC is not getting any snow in the next 10 days. It's unfortunate, but it's a virtual certainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Reading between the lines translation is you pretty much don't think it's going to snow. I think if you thought at all there was any decent chance you would be talking about it. The chances of an inch of snow in the next 10 days in NYC are less than 10% Hopefully we see an inch on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Aside from flurries to a coating Tuesday from the clipper, NYC is not getting any snow in the next 10 days. It's unfortunate, but it's a virtual certainty.You could've been confused for a regular poster if you didn't finish the sentence with virtual certainty. The pattern may or may not yield a snowstorm, but those kind of blanket statements should only be used to keep warm under during those cold long winter nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Aside from flurries to a coating Tuesday from the clipper, NYC is not getting any snow in the next 10 days. It's unfortunate, but it's a virtual certainty. I'm bumping this post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 If we roll around to the 20th without anything and little on the horizon then yeah it's going to feel very discouraging. But like last year you can't throw in the towel on Jan 10th. Nobody here will care if Jan finishes BN in temps if we have nothing to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 You could've been confused for a regular poster if you didn't finish the sentence with virtual certainty. The pattern may or may not yield a snowstorm, but those kind of blanket statements should only be used to keep warm under during those cold long winter nights. Listen I wish it weren't true and it can't snow enough for me, but look at every piece of data out there. You have a better chance of pulling a rabbit out of your arse than getting any real snow in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I think people here know if I have a real opinion I go all in . I like the pattern at 500 for the next 15 days and i think its BN but I just can't bite in my usual fashion on any SW because there are just too many moving parts that the models are having a hard time solving. I think when it comes to any storm between the 15th and 18th I would just wait until we get closer however the guidance is focusing on this period. I would rather go all in on the cold and be cautious on any snow , if I'm not sure I'm just not sure. If I see it , you will know. The social aspect of weather counts, at least in terms of how people see it, so people are not buying cold solutions....people stepped outside today and saw a rainy April day with breaks of sun and rainbows...and they've seen a lot more of AN temps and just a few ( 2? ) of really cold days, and it is hard to imagine that this is going to change full tilt at this point. The current pattern sucks. People keep saying it will change soon. We shall see. I for one will not be surprised to see this upcoming blocking pattern people are talking about fall apart. Why? Because it is being touted as one of three strongest El Ninos,along with 83 and 98, and most of us remember 98. And today reminded me greatly of the storms of 98; warm, wet, windy. Now, 83 did have that monster Feb event, so a turnaround is possible and you have made sound arguments for it. But others have argued soundly against it as well. This is my uneducated opinion from reading both sides....here's hoping we get a change for the better soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Listen I wish it weren't true and it can't snow enough for me, but look at every piece of data out there. You have a better chance of pulling a rabbit out of your arse than getting any real snow in the next 10 days.I hear you, but IMO it's not nearly as unlikely as you make it out to be (I will practice that rabbit thing though if it increases the odds...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 124 pages of banter for 0.0 inches of snow. Pretty much says it all. That being said it is January 10th. Way too early for the winter cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Aside from flurries to a coating Tuesday from the clipper, NYC is not getting any snow in the next 10 days. It's unfortunate, but it's a virtual certainty. Tuesday was always a 0. Next weekend may have legs. You just have to get closer. There's a lot of variance here and the model spray goes off in a lot of different directions . Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Aside from flurries to a coating Tuesday from the clipper, NYC is not getting any snow in the next 10 days. It's unfortunate, but it's a virtual certainty. I could've made that statement in the third week of Oct 2011 and no one would have found it the least bit controversial.....and I would have been wrong. It's mid winter you can never really say what will happen in ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The social aspect of weather counts, at least in terms of how people see it, so people are not buying cold solutions....people stepped outside today and saw a rainy April day with breaks of sun and rainbows...and they've seen a lot more of AN temps and just a few ( 2? ) of really cold days, and it is hard to imagine that this is going to change full tilt at this point. The current pattern sucks. People keep saying it will change soon. We shall see. I for one will not be surprised to see this upcoming blocking pattern people are talking about fall apart. Why? Because it is being touted as one of three strongest El Ninos,along with 83 and 98, and most of us remember 98. And today reminded me greatly of the storms of 98; warm, wet, windy. Now, 83 did have that monster Feb event, so a turnaround is possible and you have made sound arguments for it. But others have argued soundly against it as well. This is my uneducated opinion from reading both sides....here's hoping we get a change for the better soon. I hope you don't dress the next 2 weeks like you did today. You will be a little uncomfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I hope you don't dress the next 2 weeks like you did today. You will be a little uncomfortable. Don't worry PB I have an arsenal of cold weather attire...used to go fishing in the Atlantic all winter when there were fish around. Doesn't take much for it to feel pretty raw out there. Right through April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Hopefully we see an inch on Tuesday It's not going to be cold enough to get an inch to accumulate Tuesday. It will make it to the low 40s Tuesday afternoon, so it might actually start out as rain showers. It will turn cold enough for some snow showers, but it's hard for me to see more than a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Lake Effect snow warning for the tug hill...up to 3 feet possible....at least we'll have something to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I could've made that statement in the third week of Oct 2011 and no one would have found it the least bit controversial.....and I would have been wrong. It's mid winter you can never really say what will happen in ten days. Looking at the progs in October 2011 you wouldn't have said it because the cards were in the table for a rare snow. The cards are not on the table here, it is not snowing appreciably in NYC in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Lake Effect snow warning for the tug hill...up to 3 feet possible....at least we'll have something to follow ImageUploadedByTapatalk1452482412.202408.jpg That's the place we should live at. Smack in the snow belt and at elevation . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It's not going to be cold enough to get an inch to accumulate Tuesday. It will make it to the low 40s Tuesday afternoon, so it might actually start out as rain showers. It will turn cold enough for some snow showers, but it's hard for me to see more than a dusting.00z NAM concurs as the other guidance we have been following. Clippers are normally moisture starved and fast moving and as you mentioned there is the temperature issue: GFS Model Run: 0Z 10JAN 2016 Clouds Bases and Tops are now agl HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Low Middle High Max Min Sfc Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds Clouds Clouds Tmp Tmp Vis 45 01/12 21Z 38 32 230 15 0.00 0.00 524 528 -7.4 -29.0 1005 100 -SN 051OVC183 0.0 16.4 48 01/13 00Z 35 32 226 16 0.01 0.00 518 522 -8.0 -33.2 1004 87 142BKN115 0.0 15.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS seems more widespread with the snow showers than the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS seems more widespread with the snow showers than the Nam And again keep in mind, it comes in early enough on Tuesday (temps near 40) that some of it will be rain showers/mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 And again keep in mind, it comes in early enough on Tuesday (temps near 40) that some of it will be rain showers/mix. It should start off as rain showers early then change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It should start off as rain showers early then change over.It might not rain, but the snow won't accumulate at those temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It might not rain, but the snow won't accumulate at those temperatures. Yep, rain showers to non accumulating snow showers to maybe snow showers that give a light dusting at the end. This is a non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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