SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I don't agree with the 18z gfs on how this will unfold but my skepticism has grown. We'll know a lot more in a couple days. The gfs may be interpretating the pattern incorrectly and if so then expect some radical gfs op shifts in the days ahead. The teleconnections vs what the gfs shows also doesn't add up at all. Very strange solution given the -NAO/AO and +PNA setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Anyone have gefs update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I see uncertainty. 18z GEFS mean looks like a miller c. But it seems very much up in the air with so much energy in the flow.Miller C? I've heard of Miller As and Bs.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Miller C? I've heard of Miller As and Bs. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk I have heard of miller lite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Phase 3 is a cold signal in the east during el ninos. The further into winter, the colder the signal. Phase 3 is a cold signal in the east during el ninos. The further into winter, the colder the signal. I wouldn't use seasonal significance when you're trying to forecast for sub-seasonal variability. What an ENSO forced phase 3 does J vs. F have tended to look quite different. Another example, warm records are falling right now in the middle of a phase 8, ENSO modulated response. You wouldn't expect that if you looked at the three month mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Anyone have gefs update http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016011018&fh=174&xpos=0&ypos=0 Bashing in 3-2-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I have heard of miller lite I could use a drink, thanks. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Miller C? I've heard of Miller As and Bs. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Eh it's really an Albright and Cobb type C, I've heard it referenced as miller c but that's probably not accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Jeez, 21,23,25showing storms on his.......talk about a train lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016011018&fh=174&xpos=0&ypos=0 Bashing in 3-2-1 In our defense, you post an ensemble mean that has a sub 1000 mb storm hugging Cape Cod, and were supposed to construe that as a fast flow/southern slider depiction? I'm starting to think you have a bashing fetish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I wouldn't use seasonal significance when you're trying to forecast for sub-seasonal variability. What an ENSO forced phase 3 does J vs. F have tended to look quite different. Another example, warm records are falling right now in the middle of a phase 8, ENSO modulated response. You wouldn't expect that if you looked at the three month mean. I was only speaking in the general terms that the original post was about. And i posted the j composite. It was only in reference to "unfavorable phase 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Anyone have gefs updateEpic torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 In the time I've been on this board, it seems that the 18z GFS is like the crazy uncle you invite to all the family functions because you know, no matter what, he'll get hammered and do something crazy. That said, this winter, so far, is reminding me of a favorite quote from one of the Naked Gun movies: "I wish I could be more confident. It's like sex. It's a painstaking arduous task, and just when you think things are going your way -- nothing happens." Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Or from Naked Gun after the 18z GFS is done....."Please disperse there's nothing to see here"...."Please disperse there's nothing to see here".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Eh it's really an Albright and Cobb type C, I've heard it referenced as miller c but that's probably not accurate. What does it do? I mean, other than generate precipitation. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 What does it do? I mean, other than generate precipitation. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk http://www.glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/stormtypes.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Epic torch. Haha I see what did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Epic torch. Yep all one had to do today is step out when the clouds broke and temps soared to 66 degrees here today... look up again tropical blue skies.... look up again big puffy thunderheads... hear thunder in the distance and watch the white and dark clouds race NNE northbound with more heat transport to the North Pole to create more blocking Love it I hope.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS ENS.. warm for the weekend. Rinse, wash, repeat . Will see what Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I was only speaking in the general terms that the original post was about. And i posted the j composite. It was only in reference to "unfavorable phase 3". Ah, I see. Was a little confusing with the circled Phase 8 portion of your charts there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Ah, I see. Was a little confusing with the circled Phase 8 portion of your charts there. That was from an old post either here or somewhere else, not by me, im not sure why 8 was circled but it was saved in my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I like the colder Euro ensembles over the next 15 days . I would caution / and have opined not to buy any SW in this pattern outside 5 days. Lots of arguing here over track 7 plus days out. The spread on all of the ensembles are enough to show you a cutter only 24 hours after showing you a shunt. Both options are just that. Bundle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 http://www.glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/stormtypes.htm Thanks! I tried googling but came up empty. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 In our defense, you post an ensemble mean that has a sub 1000 mb storm hugging Cape Cod, and were supposed to construe that as a fast flow/southern slider depiction? I'm starting to think you have a bashing fetish talk to me next week.... #1 I am taking names and kicking azz!!!!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I like the colder Euro ensembles over the next 15 days . I would caution / and have opined not to buy any SW in this pattern outside 5 days. Lots of arguing here over track 7 plus days out. The spread on all of the ensembles are enough to show you a cutter only 24 hours after showing you a shunt. Both options are just that. Bundle up. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/maxloop.html where's me gloves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/maxloop.html where's me gloves... Didn't open. I will give you my son's. I heard you had "small " hands. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Does the para version of the euro run 4x a day? Will it run 4x a day when it takes over as the euro March 8? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 While we bicker about 8 day tracks and who's wrong and right about pattern change, yeah it's changed some but it still stinks, the truth is by the end of the weekend (between now and then looks pretty lifeless in the NYC area) the winter is half over. Who knows what will happen but it's been a downright putrid ski season, snowmobile season, ice skating, ice fishing, holiday weather, currier and yves, snow plowing , storm chasing season. It happens, what can you do, but it's just about halfway over now for the coastal plain and up and down the east it's been as downright ugly as it gets. And I think most would agree they like the front half of winter better than the back, I'll take snow anytime I can get it but it doesn't mean as much in March as it does in December or the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Model volatility is significantly higher than normal right now on large scale pattern influences, let alone small shortwaves. With that said, I do think the weakening of the block is significant on the Euro Ens and likely MJO induced to a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Does the para version of the euro run 4x a day? Will it run 4x a day when it takes over as the euro March 8?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 While we bicker about 8 day tracks and who's wrong and right about pattern change, yeah it's changed some but it still stinks, the truth is by the end of the weekend (between now and then looks pretty lifeless in the NYC area) the winter is half over. Who knows what will happen but it's been a downright putrid ski season, snowmobile season, ice skating, ice fishing, holiday weather, currier and yves, snow plowing , storm chasing season. It happens, what can you do, but it's just about halfway over now for the coastal plain and up and down the east it's been as downright ugly as it gets. And I think most would agree they like the front half of winter better than the back, I'll take snow anytime I can get it but it doesn't mean as much in March as it does in December or the new year. Right on Brother Right on!!!! promises promises........another six days away from paydirt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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