weatherpruf Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 JC for real man I still roll with idea that for real... run the 250mb and 500mb vorts loops here from the ENS----EPS GEPS GEFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ stills for the 18th looks like a consensus to me then tell me what you think.... It looks to me like I won't need to gas up the snowblower after all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yea looking more and more off no show type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 only one member goes positive for the ao forecast...that's not a bad look, I think he was talking about the OP though. Either way, I'd be wary of super quick breakdowns in blocking, models tend to rush and/or exaggerate the extent of it. No one is canceling winter, but things don't look as rosy as they did just a few days ago (I guess it can just as easily go back to that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Okay lets all cancel winter on January 10. I pretty much did once we had a string of days in the 60's in Dec and a tomato seedling was growing IMBY, but I defer to others here with more knowledge than me. I comfort myself knowing that most people out there are overjoyed at this winter so far. Remember, we weenies are an anomaly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yea looking more and more off no show type of event. Steve D made a good point. The clipper on Tuesday is going to determine the faith of next weekends storm. The clipper is going to turn into a 50 50 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Consensus a week out?Good grief.t how can you not see the 500mb pattern and how in sync it is from todays ENS please look again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 THINK BEFORE YOU POST. Please. If you cant take the time to post correct information, explain yourself/position clearly, or be bothered to acknowledge when someone corrects information you posted instead of moving on like nothing happened, it might be time to take a little break from here. the disingenuous stuff has to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yea I saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 how can you not see the 500mb pattern and how in sync it is from todays ENS please look again I see it but how do you know it will be the same look next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I see it but how do you know it will be the same look next week. We don't ... but Anthony please look a bit harder at the info posted ATM surface reflections a week out ....I will PASS The 500mb and 200mb patterns from the ENS today are lock step PERIOD sliders off the coast is my vibe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 JC for real man I still roll with idea that for real... run the 250mb and 500mb vorts loops here from the ENS----EPS GEPS GEFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ stills for the 18th looks like a consensus to me then tell me what you think.... I don't see consensus at all tbh. I see a lot of differences in timing, wave spacing and strength, and a heck of a lot of spread in the individual GEFS and GEPS members. I see surface reflections in the means of all three ensembles around or inside the benchmark 24 hours earlier than the charts you posted. So I guess I don't get it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Okay lets all cancel winter on January 10. Snow88 Posted 10 January 2015 - 05:08 PM Metfan4life 25,985 posts Joined November 12, 2010 Location:Brooklyn, NY This winter sucks found this here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45032-winter-2014-15-banter-thread/page-63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Steve D made a good point. The clipper on Tuesday is going to determine the faith of next weekends storm. The clipper is going to turn into a 50 50 low I mentioned that in this thread this morning. There is A LOT going on here, it's complicated. It's going to take a bit for models to figure out. Some folks in here have been saying this all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I don't see consensus at all tbh. I see a lot of differences in timing, wave spacing and strength, and a heck of a lot of spread in the individual GEFS and GEPS members. I see surface reflections in the means of all three ensembles around or inside the benchmark 24 hours earlier than the charts you posted. So I guess I don't get it? then post them... It would be nice to show us your points graphically do some work here to back this up thanks tommy e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 This storm could snow in Chicago in the middle of the ocean, so it makes no sense to live and die on every OP model run. This storm will look dramatically different by the time that clipper starts to develop, and until it moves off the coast of Maine, then the OP runs are as good as useless. There's too much volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Snow88 Posted 10 January 2015 - 05:08 PM Metfan4life 25,985 posts Joined November 12, 2010 Location:Brooklyn, NY This winter sucks found this here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45032-winter-2014-15-banter-thread/page-63 I cancelled winter way too early lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 How's the fishing? My brother in law sold his lakeside cabin in Maine, and fishing in NJ just plain sucks anymore. Every puddle in the state has been fished out, and saltwater is dead. Looking for alternatives....The fish are mainly rock bass and sunfish. Many of them are stocked for the fishing season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 We don't ... but Anthony please look a bit harder at the info posted ATM surface reflections a week out ....I will PASS The 500mb and 200mb patterns from the ENS today are lock step PERIOD sliders off the coast is my vibe Your outcome may be correct...but when I think consensus, I think this: Not this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The GFS is so bad that it sends lows over the benchmark when the NAO is positive and the pattern is a hostile but it sends lows to the lakes when there is a 1961 like block. Not necessarily talking about the storm for the 17th but the GFS has been sending almost every fantasy storm to the lakes while the Euro has mostly had them off the SE coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Your outcome may be correct...but when I think consensus, I think this: Not this. JC...my point is not just the individual members inside one ENS (GEFS) for example I posted the 500mb charts from all three big guns to me the projected 500mb pattern from the ENS --- ATM says OTS for the 17 -18th threat is a very valid option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The GFS is so bad that it sends lows over the benchmark when the NAO is positive and the pattern is a hostile but it sends lows to the lakes when there is a 1961 like block. Not necessarily talking about the storm for the 17th but the GFS has been sending almost every fantasy storm to the lakes while the Euro has mostly had them off the SE coast So are we getting the famous -NAO or not? It's getting confusing around here, one day we are getting historic blocking the best ever, then it is transient, then it isn't happening....I just read an expert on another site ( not weather related ) who stated the northeast should expect to remain mild through the winter due to El Nino effects, and this guy was no slouch but a scientist with some atmospheric agency.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 In the time I've been on this board, it seems that the 18z GFS is like the crazy uncle you invite to all the family functions because you know, no matter what, he'll get hammered and do something crazy. That said, this winter, so far, is reminding me of a favorite quote from one of the Naked Gun movies: "I wish I could be more confident. It's like sex. It's a painstaking arduous task, and just when you think things are going your way -- nothing happens." Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 then post them... It would be nice to show us your points graphically do some work here to back this up thanks tommy e He probably meant this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The GFS is so bad that it sends lows over the benchmark when the NAO is positive and the pattern is a hostile but it sends lows to the lakes when there is a 1961 like block. Not necessarily talking about the storm for the 17th but the GFS has been sending almost every fantasy storm to the lakes while the Euro has mostly had them off the SE coastYeah, it really is too early to make a final call on this one. Let's not forget that this one was out to sea on the same model just 24 hours and a few model runs ago. Sure, it was still a sloppy mess at that time as well, but we've been dealing with completely different solutions almost every 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 He probably meant this: 12zepsmslp168.png that's great thank you E-LI at least the peeps can see it in black and white that prog is at 1000mb and so is the GEFS does that cut it for a snowstorm????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 JC...my point is not just the individual members inside one ENS (GEFS) for example I posted the 500mb charts from all three big guns to me the 500mb pattern ATM says OTS for the 17 -18th threat is a very fair option The mean is a useful tool for sure, but spread is equally as important. You don't think spread is a relevant factor when declaring "lockstep"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The mean is a useful tool for sure, but spread is equally as important. You don't think spread is a relevant factor when declaring "lockstep"? He did this all last year. He and PB had some interesting back-and-forth. Still, who the heck knows? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It's time for popcorn and TV. Good time to start finding shows for this winter is wacky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 The mean is a useful tool for sure, but spread is equally as important. You don't think spread is a relevant factor when declaring "lockstep"? Without sampling... any of our guidance is always a work in progress I like to stay with the Upper Air trends they seem to be more stable run to run Do you see a snowstorm from the way you interpret that guidance?? I don't.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Without sampling... any of our guidance is always a work in progress I like to stay with the Upper Air trends they seem to be more stable run to run Do you see a snowstorm from the way you interpret that guidance?? I don't.... I see uncertainty. 18z GEFS mean looks like a miller c. But it seems very much up in the air with so much energy in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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