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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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What's so.funny about that?

Hes looking at general temp trends not the freezing line. You suggest using an ensemble to forecast surface temps?

That makes zero sense. And 120 hours out is a 6 day forecast. Its within range to forecast 40s v. Say 20s.

Wait so using an op run for temps 120 hours+ out is more logical than using the smoothed ensemble mean? What? And check ur math. 120 hours out is a 5 day forecast chief. 120 hours from Sunday 12z is Friday 12z. And who said I was looking at the freezing line? I'm looking at temps. And PBGFI did a perfect job clarifying a few posts ago what the euro ens show temp wise. Op runs can't even get a feel of the overall pattern 120-192 hours out right now and u think it's ok to expect them to be accurate with the surface temp? The op runs change the position of the trough, strength of the AO and the position of the PV every 6 hours (every 12 for euro). The temps swing back and forth with those changes every run as well.

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Thanks!

Sorry if my last post came off brash. It's just frustrating to see mets/energy traders/forecasters and hobbyist come on here and bust their butts (weekends and weekdays). They do hours of research and post it to contribute to this forum for free....PB, snowgoose, bluewave, superstorm, etc. then you have posters with agendas basically spitting in their face and claiming victory in spite of being proven wrong over and over. Sooner or later PB and crew will get frustrated and leave, like earth light has. We need to respect these posters more and give them the benefit of the doubt each and every time. I feel they have earned that respect many times over and I don't want them to leave our forum.

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Thanks!

Sorry if my last post came off brash. It's just frustrating to see mets/energy traders/forecasters and hobbyist come on here and bust their butts (weekends and weekdays). They do hours of research and post it to contribute to this forum for free....PB, snowgoose, bluewave, superstorm, etc. then you have posters with agendas basically spitting in their face and claiming victory in spite of being proven wrong over and over. Sooner or later PB and crew will get frustrated and leave, like earth light has. We need to respect these posters more and give them the benefit of the doubt each and every time. I feel they have earned that respect many times over and I don't want them to leave our forum.

I couldn't agree more. This shouldn't be a place for muscle flexing, it should be a place for lively discussion, respect &learning. Otherwise if this continues on the same path quite frankly I don't see this forum surviving in the long term

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Thanks!

Sorry if my last post came off brash. It's just frustrating to see mets/energy traders/forecasters and hobbyist come on here and bust their butts (weekends and weekdays). They do hours of research and post it to contribute to this forum for free....PB, snowgoose, bluewave, superstorm, etc. then you have posters with agendas basically spitting in their face and claiming victory in spite of being proven wrong over and over. Sooner or later PB and crew will get frustrated and leave, like earth light has. We need to respect these posters more and give them the benefit of the doubt each and every time. I feel they have earned that respect many times over and I don't want them to leave our forum.

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And that's fair. It goes both ways though. People were slapping high fives before we have received an inch of snow.

Look at any weather board right now and its all the same. I challenge you to find one board that isnt at each others throats.

I for one hope for snow. But the brown nosing that goes on across all weather boards is sickening. It goes without saying that bluewave and others are great posters. But certain posters on both sides of the discussion are obnoxious. If you can't handle this then weather boards aren't for you.

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And that's fair. It goes both ways though. People were slapping high fives before we have received an inch of snow.

Look at any weather board right now and its all the same. I challenge you to find one board that isnt at each others throats.

I for one hope for snow. But the brown nosing that goes on across all weather boards is sickening. It goes without saying that bluewave and others are great posters. But certain posters on both sides of the discussion are obnoxious. If you can't handle this then weather boards aren't for you.

Of course I can handle it (if that comment was even aimed at me). The whole basis of my argument is that I just don't want this to turn into the Philly forum where everyone left. I was a member of that forum too (as I lived in ocean county at the time). It was awful when tombo and company left. The board was dead and that happened because of the same stuff going on here in NYC metro.

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And that's fair. It goes both ways though. People were slapping high fives before we have received an inch of snow.

Look at any weather board right now and its all the same. I challenge you to find one board that isnt at each others throats.

I for one hope for snow. But the brown nosing that goes on across all weather boards is sickening. It goes without saying that bluewave and others are great posters. But certain posters on both sides of the discussion are obnoxious. If you can't handle this then weather boards aren't for you.

agreed and the answer is NOT banning people for stating their opinions either way ....If you feel they are wrong just tell them why you think so - I think some people should take a course in debating......has anyone ? I have.

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I go up there every year in August. Highly recommend going. My family stays in a rented cabin on Fourth Lake.

Also get over 300" of snow/year. Weenie land up there.

How's the fishing? My brother in law sold his lakeside cabin in Maine, and fishing in NJ just plain sucks anymore. Every puddle in the state has been fished out, and saltwater is dead. Looking for alternatives....

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