pazzo83 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 What are you talking about? The models rarely waver 7-8 days out... Yup. You can take Day 8 from any GFS run and take it to the bank. Guaranteed. I don't know what you guys are so worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yep. 12Z GFS back to 20" of snow for eastern North Carolina and colder temps. here. We could go the entire 384hrs. with a consolation prize of lower temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yep. 12Z GFS back to 20" of snow for eastern North Carolina and colder temps. here. We could go the entire 384hrs. with a consolation prize of lower temperatures.That would blow, but out of curiosity do you get some kind of vindictive pleasure from pointing out the worst outcomes? If so, you're perfectly entitled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Random question, but are there any red taggers in this sub-forum besides Forky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 That would blow, but out of curiosity do you get some kind of vindictive pleasure from pointing out the worst outcomes? If so, you're perfectly entitled He's kind of like the board Eyore.Sent from my SM-G360T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The three feet in NC is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Random question, but are there any red taggers in this sub-forum besides Forky?Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 That would blow, but out of curiosity do you get some kind of vindictive pleasure from pointing out the worst outcomes? If so, you're perfectly entitled I am a realist. The Stock Market is more likely to make new lows than the CPK thermometer. w/o the crutch of a new QE-IV the SM is as dead as we are w/o a SSWE. Go NORfolk young man for the time being. Well there, I have exhausted my allowance of blog posts, so the Great Swami has spoken and shall not speak again unless allowed to! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 No, under 5, champ. Today is 5. Chill with the personal attacks. LOOK again champ the 6th was N . Today is 4 . Tomorrow will be 5 as tomorrow's high probably set at midnight. 5 over the next 20 is a good call considering the GFS missed the 6 to 10 and it's 0z was missing the 10 to 15 . Now they all see it. Sorry for the chicken legs comments. Just assumed. JK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I am a realist. The Stock Market is more likely to make new lows than the CPK thermometer. w/o the crutch of a new QE-IV the SM is as dead as we are w/o a SSWE. Go NORfolk young man for the time being. Well there, I have exhausted my allowance of blog posts, so the Great Swami has spoken and shall not speak again unless allowed to! LOL Realist. You said the first week of Jan would be plus 8. It's was BN You then went onto say last week Jan would feature 2 days BN Do you realize how horrible you have been ? If you were trading HDDS you would have been fired on wall street . You don't know what you are looking at. You and snowbust are a comedy show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 LOOK again champ the 6th was N . Today is 4 . Tomorrow will be 5 as tomorrow's high probably set at midnight. 5 over the next 20 is a good call considering the GFS missed the 6 to 10 and it's 0z was missing the 10 to 15 . Now they all see it. Sorry for the chicken legs comments. Just assumed. JK The 6th was +0.5. I know you can do math. 6th: 41/25 - Avg 33F Normal: 38/27 - Avg 32.5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I like when models don't show a storm because that means a storm is more likely. Or something. Lol always loved that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I thought NAO- usually caused storms to buckle? Why do all the storms on the GFS have flat OTS storm tracks?The ridge out west deamplifies too quickly as another storm slams into the west coast. And that stupid ULL in the upper Midwest pushes the storm east. The pattern still looks good IMO but not quite as good as a couple days ago. The Euro has a different look. But none of the models have been consistent which isn't surprising.Maybe this pattern doesn't produce but Istill like our odds for a storm in the 17th-23rd time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The ridge out west deamplifies to quickly as another storm slams into the west coast. And that stupid ULL in the upper Midwest pushes the storm east. The pattern still looks good IMO but not quite as good as a couple days ago. The Euro has a different look. But none of the models have been consistent which isn't surprising.Do you think that it's a possibility that the storm phases with the ULL instead of getting pushed OTS by it? That would definitely be an interesting solution, to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Do you think that it's a possibility that the storm phases with the ULL instead of getting pushed OTS by it? That would definitely be an interesting solution, to say the least. Idk. That's a Forky/Snowgoose/Dsnowx/Isotherm type of question. But they couldn't tell you for sure one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Idk. That's a Forky/Snowgoose/Dsnowx/Isotherm type of question. But they couldn't tell you for sure one way or another.Yeah this setup has so many pieces of energy it's useless to look at OP runs until 3 or 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The 6th was +0.5. I know you can do math. 6th: 41/25 - Avg 33F Normal: 38/27 - Avg 32.5F Climate data at KNYC says N 38/28 splits. 41/25 actual. Why the N there ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Hope we can get an inch with the clipper. how often do we get anything from a clipper that goes by well to the north ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yeah this setup has so many pieces of energy it's useless to look at OP runs until 3 or 4 days out. problem right now is the players are in the wrong positions the new Canadian shows basically the same set -up anytime you see that Low in the great lakes and lack of strong HP in southeast Canada = precip type issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Climate data at KNYC says N 38/28 splits. 41/25 actual. Why the N there ? To say it was above normal, do they take whole numbers only? Just wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Climate data at KNYC says N 38/28 splits. 41/25 actual. Why the N there ? Because they are rounding down. Do you see any floating point numbers in the report for temps? WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL .................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 41 246 PM 72 2007 38 3 22 MINIMUM 25 531 AM -2 1896 27 -2 19 AVERAGE 33 33 0 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Even a cursory glance of the numbers will tell you that it was a positive departure. A high of +3 and a low of -2 yields.... C'mon PB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 That would blow, but out of curiosity do you get some kind of vindictive pleasure from pointing out the worst outcomes? If so, you're perfectly entitled There's a reason why he's 5-posted. - Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Completely different look on Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 that lead wave is a big problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Completely different look on Euro. MA forum is saying the primary is over IN and OH. Speaking of that forum, Ian has some great posts about the upcoming look at 500mb and how it correlates to mid-Atlantic snow (which I would guess correlates pretty well to our chances as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 how often do we get anything from a clipper that goes by well to the north ? Every model has a dusting to inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 that lead wave is a big problem Agree. Rises heights too much in the east.12Z euro looks like the 0z para. Coastal hugger with inland snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 that lead wave is a big problemAgreed.But it's also not our only problem right now. There's a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 ...58* .. just heard thunder..got 1.5" rain..disgusting. what a way to run a 'pattern change'.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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