IrishRob17 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 0z Euro Para is a coastal hugger. Rain for the coast and a lot of snow just inland.Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 0z Euro Para is a coastal hugger. Rain for the coast and a lot of snow just inland. That thing spit out insane totals in eastern New England, but most would be happy its output. We hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yeah, your right about the forcing. I've been keeping an eye on that for over a month. I recall discussions about basin wide ninos having the bulk of it just east of 180 in the ENSO thread. It sure seems to be where we are this year as illustrated below. This year is west of 1998 and even 1983. OlrChiVdiv_tp200hPa_20160108.gif Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't research suggest west-based Ninos correlate to snowier than average winters in the East? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 where is the position of the 50/50 low and the strength ? I dont have h5. Interesting times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Most of the snow on the NAM comes from low-level energy on the back side of the clipper. A brief but heavy snow band develops over Philadelphia and heads up I-95. Some of the SREF members also show this possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Elucidate.... Yeah, your right about the forcing. I've been keeping an eye on that for over a month. I recall discussions about basin wide ninos having the bulk of it just east of 180 in the ENSO thread. It sure seems to be where we are this year as illustrated below. This year is west of 1998 and even 1983. OlrChiVdiv_tp200hPa_20160108.gif There you go. I refuse to debate the ENSO state any further. It is what it is and some warm trolls, here, refuse to recognize it. That being said, regions 1,1.2 are decreasing temp more quickly than regions 3 and 4. This has predictably setup tropical forcing in a position which favors keeping the Alaska low over the Aleutians. This promotes ridging in the west and troughiness in the east. PB has explained this many times. The laws of physics should not allow for the second half of this winter to be anywhere close to as warm as December and given the wild perturbations going on in troposphere and stratosphere, we could really remain N to BN through a good portion of March, especially if there is an SSW, which is always a long shot, but there is some evidence pointing to one occurring in the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't research suggest west-based Ninos correlate to snowier than average winters in the East? From what I've read, they are known for that. Thats not what this year is though. This year is basin wide, west based would be even further west than where it is now. There really hasn't been a super nino like this, its what makes this year so interesting. Basin wide, though, is certainly better than east based if you want winter. The ENSO thread is full of composites that show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Agreed it'd be terrifying but oh well gotta play again since nobody one yet. Could we see the first billionaire from lottery winnings? Probably not. You only win 62% of the pot. Then 25% gets taken out for federal taxes. Then using New York as an example, something like 8.8% state tax gets taken out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Probably not. You only win 62% of the pot. Then 25% gets taken out for federal taxes. Then using New York as an example, something like 8.8% state tax gets taken out. And you're left with just enough for bus fare and a Coke. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I want that ULL in the Lakes to phase in. That is likely what yields some of those monster solutions on the ensembles the last few days. I want that ULL in the Lakes to go away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Probably not. You only win 62% of the pot. Then 25% gets taken out for federal taxes. Then using New York as an example, something like 8.8% state tax gets taken out. Where does almost 40% of the pot go before taxes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 And you're left with just enough for bus fare and a Coke. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 We don't want a strong -NAO. That would shunt the storms to our south. You are already giving up a storm for the coast 162 + hours out? Jeez. Thing is, it seems right now that every time a precipitation maker is in the area we warm up and rain. Even for Tuesday, the NWS has me at 42 with rain showers possible before 10 PM followed by possible snow showers afterward. Then again, last year seemed pretty horrible before it wasn't. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Where does almost 40% of the pot go before taxes? I have no idea. http://www.techinsider.io/how-much-lottery-powerball-winner-takes-home-2016-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 i <3 warm sectors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Could be much worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 i <3 warm sectorsLol, the pleasure Forky receives from driving this board's snow lovers nuts during winter is priceless.Though I am one, thx 4 the entertainment man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I want that ULL in the Lakes to go away.... Yeah, either or. Either it stays far enough away to not interfere with our storm, or it speeds up and phases with it and induces a BECS. I'll take either solution (even if it means rain for me in Boston in the latter case). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yeah, either or. Either it stays far enough away to not interfere with our storm, or it speeds up and phases with it and induces a BECS. I'll take either solution (even if it means rain for me in Boston in the latter case). What's a BECS? I've heard of HECS, SECS, and MECS. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I have no idea. http://www.techinsider.io/how-much-lottery-powerball-winner-takes-home-2016-1 The cash sum you would receive is the present value of the annuity. The annuity would pay out the 1.3 billion after thirty years, adjusted for cost of living increases. Discount that 1.3 billion dollar future value back to the present and you get the cash payout. Then subtract your taxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 January to date is +1.8 or a surplus of(9*1.8) 16degs. According to the GFSx [much maligned] the next 8 days will average about +5 to +6 or about another 40-48deg. surplus. This would put us near (60/17) or about +4 by the morning of the 18th. Goal: Stay below +5.3 for the whole month, so that Jan. can at least feel like the stolen Dec.! http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 What's a BECS? I've heard of HECS, SECS, and MECS. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Biblical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Biblical Ah, thanks. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 January to date is +1.8 or a surplus of(9*1.8) 16degs. According to the GFSx [much maligned] the next 8 days will average about +5 to +6 or about another 40-48deg. surplus. This would put us near (60/17) or about +4 by the morning of the 18th. Goal: Stay below +5.3 for the whole month, so that Jan. can at least feel like the stolen Dec.! http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA How are you getting a 5-6 above 8 day average from that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Ooops, I should've posted it in banter to begin with. Anyways, the after today we will probably run about even for the 7 days following it (2 days look a little below and 2 look somewhat above) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 How are you getting a 5-6 above 8 day average from that? Look at the predictions. Only 2 days are a little below the normal of 31-32. Today alone wipes that out and then some. The positives simply outweigh the negative. And looking at the last 14 days of the month, starting with the 18th., below normal seems dubious. Period from 1/20---2/20 could be a tossup with a positive bias, if that SSWE does not occur. We remain outside the band of the cold air and next to an above normal SST regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Could be much worse... Blizz of '78 and '66 showed up on CPC analogues. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GFS is gonna be UGLY for most of us (it's that same stupid northern stream feature) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 GFS is gonna be UGLY for most of us (it's that same stupid northern stream feature) How has the Euro been handling that piece? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I want that ULL in the Lakes to go away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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