Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,610
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 6.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

7-9 inches. A little more west with this low and Boom.

Oh wow, that's pretty cool, I hate only having the crappy 24 hour panels on Tropical Tidbits. I wouldn't have guessed it showed that much. I should really stop obsessing with this stupid (potential) storm till we're about 4 days out.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Would seriously be scared to win this right now. Especially if you are in a state where you cannot remain anonymous. I would wait the full year to claim it and hope everyone forgets about it

Agreed it'd be terrifying but oh well gotta play again since nobody one yet. Could we see the first billionaire from lottery winnings?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 days or less AN... Poof!!

Didn't we bet 5 or under in the end little man ?

1998 poof... snowless winter poof .. Pattern not changing poof .. The cold shot looks transient poof...

Wasn't the 1st 6 BN? The next 4 AN followed by the 10th thru the 25th BN ?

Imagine if you could do that ? You could actually add to the board .

Instead you run around Brooklyn in your speedos embarrassing yourself and troll the greats .

For the record that's 2 boroughs you have shown your little chicken legs too.

Stay out of Jersey .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Back to the Euro . Just to show you the potential in this pattern the Euro drops that D 8 system 45 mb in 12 hours with 100 knot winds at 5k feet at our latitude.

I think that's too extreme but that's why we say big anomalous patterns could produce big storms so you can't punt the pattern when an OP looks like a whiff.

As it is the Euro looks to lower pressure off the EC next weekend and send LP N under that block .

Get this inside 5 days and you will have something.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Our epic pattern has gone poof. The epic -NAO goes poof in a matter of days

Do you ever look at this stuff before you post ?

-4SD AO

-3SD NAO

Are you expecting to see a HECS on every OP run or is it understandable with so many pieces of energy that are out over the PAC that are poorly sampled, just maybe the models are going to have a tough time figuring out which one comes N.

Clearly you didn't see the Euro . Big patterns "could "yield big results.

No one's promising anything outside 5 days , but clearly if you don't see the potential in this pattern , you are missing out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Huge potential on the horizon. I posted earlier about how the GFS was a mess in regards to how quickly the op breaks down the blocking and how it tries to rush a change in the Pacific as well. Clearly this is incorrect as it has little support from ens and other operational guidance.

I expect quite a week of model ups and downs and fully expect someone from NC-New England to be bracing for a MAJOR winter storm by this time next week.

Fun times ahead :-)

Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Do you ever look at this stuff before you post ?

-4SD AO

-3SD NAO

Are you expecting to see a HECS on every OP run or is it understandable with so many pieces of energy that are out over the PAC that are poorly sampled, just maybe the models are going to have a tough time figuring out which one comes N.

Clearly you didn't see the Euro . Big patterns "could "yield big results.

No one's promising anything outside 5 days , but clearly if you don't see the potential in this pattern , you are missing out.

You're making up an argument. Red herring. I said the " epic" looking -NAO and blocking isn't looking so great anymore. I'm actually a little surprised because I was intrigued by the block but it's up and vanished like a fart in the wind. What's left is a marginal period of potential storminess and rather modest and stale cold. We need better with this El Niño. Unless you are interior or particularly elevated next weekend is a dead horse. It's just too mild/stale.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think every run next 2 days Will have different results hopefully by tue night oz suite or wed 12Z we can get some trend going

well said - prior to Wednesday, only satellite based info at initialization for the waves that become this potential

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unless you are interior or particularly elevated next weekend is a dead horse. It's just too mild/stale.

While you very well may end up being correct in the end, keep in mind there is a west-based neg nao breaking down with a piece of the PV positioned to the South and attempting to drop into the OV. All the while, a quasi 50/50 low, which is being progged as fairly strong, is being shown on most guidance. While not in the exact 50/50 position, it is there. Meanwhile, you have a potential (and I do emphasize 'potential') powder keg going off inducing cyclogenesis occurring just off the coast with some guidance hinting could have bombogenetic characteristics, and all the ingredients are on the table for a possible SECS/MECS January 17-18.

In a nutshell, I think it is way too early to write anything in stone especially given 2 cycles ago we had the Euro showing a modest snow event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS still has that pesky low north of the main one, it barely has a surface reflection yet is kind of cramping the main low's style. But I agree with that guy who also lives in PA, unless you have a skyscraper on Mount Washington there's simply no way we're overcoming +1 850's 8 days out, the Euro is clueless as always (disclaimer; this post may contain some sarcasm, please tread carefully before replying with Hi resolution snow maps)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Back to the Euro . Just to show you the potential in this pattern the Euro drops that D 8 system 45 mb in 12 hours with 100 knot winds at 5k feet at our latitude.

I think that's too extreme but that's why we say big anomalous patterns could produce big storms so you can't punt the pattern when an OP looks like a whiff.

As it is the Euro looks to lower pressure off the EC next weekend and send LP N under that block .

Get this inside 5 days and you will have something.

I dunno. The ensembles have all had some of the most intense members I can remember seeing the last few days. The Euro had one at 943 mb a few days ago, as did yesterday's GFS, along with several solutions in the 950s. Just an epic clash between blocking and rabid Nino. I think those kinds of solutions, though unlikely, represent the sort of extreme potential in this pattern if the system hits its phase perfectly. Still well worth watching.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You're making up an argument. Red herring. I said the " epic" looking -NAO and blocking isn't looking so great anymore. I'm actually a little surprised because I was intrigued by the block but it's up and vanished like a fart in the wind. What's left is a marginal period of potential storminess and rather modest and stale cold. We need better with this El Niño. Unless you are interior or particularly elevated next weekend is a dead horse. It's just too mild/stale.

Epic -NAOs often argue for suppression. I would take modest blocking any day, especially with a nice PNA spike, negative EPO and an active STJ.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still tons of potential with the 17th-18th deal, no doubt. The problem is, it's still way out there. Whatever happens with that midweek system is going to have a say in what happens as well. That is what is going to blow up into the 50/50. Maybe. Not to mention all of the vorts flying around in the flow. Certainly a complicated setup. Curious to see how it all plays out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still tons of potential with the 17th-18th deal, no doubt. The problem is, it's still way out there. Whatever happens with that midweek system is going to have a say in what happens as well. That is what is going to blow up into the 50/50. Maybe. Not to mention all of the vorts flying around in the flow. Certainly a complicated setup. Curious to see how it all plays out.

I want that ULL in the Lakes to phase in. That is likely what yields some of those monster solutions on the ensembles the last few days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...