Doorman Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 That doesn't negate you not posting an image of LP at hour 216 before. You jumped over a snowstorm on the OP that's what you were taken to task over. Not what happens on the ensembles 2 hours later. People have to trust when you analyze , if you miss a panel it's OK . A Digital Snowstorm the Mid-Atlantic has a nice thread for that http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47083-winter-2015-16-digital-snow-thread/ the ens is OTS the GFS 250 mb pattern is in line with that thinking ATM but I have an agenda??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Okay we get it, doorman doesnt like the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 You do have an agenda though because when the ensembles were showing a hugger or bm track in past runs you were quiet. You only post models that support what you believe to happen. That is the definition of an agenda. Your very knowledgeable but you seem to pick an idea and won't change for example last March. When I see red taffeta discussing how the conditions are favorable for some snow in the pattern and you refute it by cherry picking images and models yes that's an agenda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 A Digital Snowstorm the Mid-Atlantic has a nice thread for that http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47083-winter-2015-16-digital-snow-thread/ the ens is OTS the GFS 250 mb pattern is in line with that thinking ATM but I have an agenda??? I don't look at any 1 system seriously outside 5 days. I only look at the pattern. Jan 10 - 25 are BN. What we spin up inside that period it's debatable. . We are going into a good pattern , it will not take much for one of the SW s under this block to come N But I will not bite outside 5 days. But I will on the cold and that look at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 After coming home, I had a quick look at the models. I believe PB GFI has highlighted the potential that exists. Just because the 12z GFS developed the storm in a fashion that had little impact on the NYC area doesn't mean potential doesn't exist. The pattern is a good one and the subtropical jet is active. Opportunities could well arise. Next Sunday-Monday remains very much on the table. FWIW, the 12z ECMWF showed approximately 1" per hour snows from Monday (18th) morning into early Monday afternoon. Given where we've been in December and the season's lack of snowfall, that's anything but discouraging. Of course, it's way too soon to get into details. The main point is that the next 2 weeks is not looking hopeless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Okay we get it, doorman doesnt like the pattern. My agenda ANT..... is to keep you honest!!!! Canadian ens http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens®ion=eus&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016010912&fh=222&xpos=0&ypos=212 https://youtu.be/QdJ3qWlRebg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The cold does look good with a few brief breaks in between. 18z gfs getting ready to release another Arctic shot by the 17/18th. And what Doorman is showing isn't wrong, I don't understand the attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 My agenda ANT..... is to keep you honest!!!! Canadian ens http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens®ion=eus&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016010912&fh=222&xpos=0&ypos=212 https://youtu.be/QdJ3qWlRebg Since honesty is the best policy, I would certainly enjoy respectfully reading your respone to Swamplover56. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Since honesty is the best policy, I would certainly enjoy respectfully reading your respone to Swamplover56. all 3 ens shown for the 17-18 threat today all have no storm or an OTS solution ATM thats all I got tommy e ------------------- the 18z GFS op is another cherry picked solution http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016010918&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I don't look at any 1 system seriously outside 5 days. I only look at the pattern. Jan 10 - 25 are BN. What we spin up inside that period it's debatable. . We are going into a good pattern , it will not take much for one of the SW s under this block to come N But I will not bite outside 5 days. But I will on the cold and that look at 500 I saw a couple tweets from HM today. You might find these interesting. https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/685907405478227968 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/685928227790008320 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 The cold does look good with a few brief breaks in between. 18z gfs getting ready to release another Arctic shot by the 17/18th. And what Doorman is showing isn't wrong, I don't understand the attack. All he did was post what the ensembles showed. He didn't make it up or say what he thought they showed. The attacks on him are unwarranted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 12z gfs vs 18z gfs : no significant snows on either model run for our area this weekend, however, they are worlds apart. The 18z run looks incredible, and i'm sure that before this weekend is over, at least one model is going to show something pretty big developing : http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010912/gfs_z500_vort_us_38.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010918/gfs_z500_vort_us_37.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Gfs is always late to the party in regards to coastal storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 all 3 ens shown for the 17-18 threat today all have no storm or an OTS solution ATM thats all I got tommy e ------------------- the 18z GFS op is another cherry picked solution http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016010918&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=0 door man just curious is there a specific time frame you are interested in this winter??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 door man just curious is there a specific time frame you are interested in this winter??? People bang him up every year. He challenges people./model runs. I sorta like his posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 People bang him up every year. He challenges people./model runs. I sorta like his posts. i do as well such is why I asked if there is a specific time frame he likes, you can't blame a man who is looking at the weather world factual and not through the eyes of a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Honestly if you don't think this is a good pattern then you should probably step away from the weather hobby. Yes can we miss a storm to our se? Absolutely, but the players being shown and the active sub tropical jet it's only a matter of time. Look at Don s chart about the -ao going below 4, all examples had a significant snowstorm in the NYC area. Also what happen to all the warm 11-15 day posts and pac flow dominating the US? All I see now is cold temps and blocking, but both sides seem to cherry pick guidance to fit there agenda. Also if your going to go out on a limb and say no 6+ storms in NYC during January, expect some Feeback on a ignorant comment like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 i do as well such is why I asked if there is a specific time frame he likes, you can't blame a man who is looking at the weather world factual and not through the eyes of a weenieWhile true, there are plenty of posters here who poo poo perfectly good patterns because of minor caveats. At the end of the day though, the weather is the weather and it'll do what it does best. You still have to think this pattern has potential at the very least, so while everyone is entitled to decipher things how they want, it does occasionally come across as somewhat unnecessarily pessimistic, but on the flipside we have posters that will find a snowy solution with the most horrid patterns and setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I honestly think this storm next weekend hits us because the suppression will relax by than and we'll end up with somewhat stale cold but nevertheless a strong storm will always make its own cold air. Not to mention the warmer than average ocean temperatures will enhance the precipitation resulting in a strong 970-980 low pressure. As of right now I think from the tele connections will help us bring this up the coast including the negative NAO slowing this system down by quite a bit. This could of course change by a lot its still about 7-8 days away. The pattern simply supports an coast snowstorm no question about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 While true, there are plenty of posters here who poo poo perfectly good patterns because of minor caveats. At the end of the day though, the weather is the weather and it'll do what it does best. You still have to think this pattern has potential at the very least, so while everyone is entitled to decipher things how they want, it does occasionally come across as somewhat unnecessarily pessimistic, but on the flipside we have posters that will find a snowy solution with the most horrid patterns and setups.i agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Honestly if you don't think this is a good pattern then you should probably step away from the weather hobby. Yes can we miss a storm to our se? Absolutely, but the players being shown and the active sub tropical jet it's only a matter of time. Look at Don s chart about the -ao going below 4, all examples had a significant snowstorm in the NYC area. Also what happen to all the warm 11-15 day posts and pac flow dominating the US? All I see now is cold temps and blocking, but both sides seem to cherry pick guidance to fit there agenda. Also if your going to go out on a limb and say no 6+ storms in NYC during January, expect some Feeback on a ignorant comment like that. I agree with you. The pattern is much for favorable as noted. From history, good patterns don't always produce snow. Most long range winter forecast called for winter/snow to kick in around mid-month January in the east. If this occurs, there is something to be said about how to make/develop a future forecast with El Nino winters that are strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I see Doorman up to his same tricks from last year. Also, snowman19, don't look now, but major developments on the SSW front. Only a matter of time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I see Doorman up to his same tricks from last year. Also, snowman19, don't look now, but major developments on the SSW front. Only a matter of time now. Don't keep us in suspense, post a warming map please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I see Doorman up to his same tricks from last year. Also, snowman19, don't look now, but major developments on the SSW front. Only a matter of time now. Crying wolf about SSWs since November. Keep predicting one, eventually it will happen lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Don't keep us in suspense, post a warming map please.Intense 10hpa warming signals showing up in the mid and long range on both the GEFS and EPS. Data is exciting strat gurus such as our own Isotherm and HM. If we are going to see a displacement or even a split, it's going to likely occur later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 #eastbased ? Poof. Where did all the L/R warm air go ? Poof . Where did all the 1998 analogs go ? Poof . I'm actually starting to feel bad....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Intense 10hpa warming signals showing up in the mid and long range on both the GEFS and EPS. Data is exciting strat gurus such as our own Isotherm and HM. If we are going to see a displacement or even a split, it's going to likely occur later in the month. Nice, hopefully it materializes and sets the stage for a rocking February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 While some are dreaming of the Powerball, my dream tonight is a little more simple (and perhaps attainable given the pattern): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 While some are dreaming of the Powerball, my dream tonight is a little more simple (and perhaps attainable given the pattern): Ha! Well done sir, if I win the 900 million perhaps I'll look into cloud seeding in the private sector, cold and dry simply isn't for rich weather weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 While some are dreaming of the Powerball, my dream tonight is a little more simple (and perhaps attainable given the pattern): Great card Don, which surface is that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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