Brian5671 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 PV on the move at the end of the Euro. It was a phenomenal run, but it's cool to talk about positive departures and ENSO records right now, so... Alas, as Paul indicated earlier, pattern is likely to be transient until early Jan at the earliest, so we may see another warm up In fairness, the warmth is the big story the next 5-7 days. All the stuff we are talking about here is really on the edge of fantasy right now, so it belongs here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I just extrapolated the 84 hour NAM out to day 10, should produce a two day blizzard, 36 inches+, 35 mph winds, gusts to 45 mph... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 In fairness, the warmth is the big story the next 5-7 days. All the stuff we are talking about here is really on the edge of fantasy right now, so it belongs here.Point taken. It's not as fantastical as it was a few years ago. Long range forecasting has made incredible strides IMO. But, by all means, mock people pattern chasing and dwell on warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The west really gets dumped on with snow the next 10 days on these runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The west really gets dumped on with snow the next 10 days on these runs....Yup. Trough drops down and sits on them for a bit. This also is what allows the EPO to tank and for Atlantic blocking to build up north. This is why I say the pattern begins to change early next week and why the d10 threat is legit IMO. Laugh it up and we'll circle back later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The west really gets dumped on with snow the next 10 days on these runs.... And that's where all the cold and snow will likely stay with a -PNA developing but good for them those resorts have struggled immensely the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 And that's where all the cold and snow will likely stay with a -PNA developing but good for them those resorts have struggled immensely the past few years.Why is the trough likely to stay out west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 CMC major snow event favoring interior. CMC ens two day snowstorm for most of the area. Euro just misses a major snow event. D10. Obs thread rambling on and on about warmth. Real pattern evolution and threat tracking is in banter. Go figure. Lol 25 degree departures in the mid-range are far more interesting than hints of snow in the fantasy range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 25 degree departures in the mid-range are far more interesting than hints of snow in the fantasy range...I concede the point. Me, personally, I find LR pattern forecasting and sniffing out snow chances FAR more interesting. The warmth makes me want to vomit. But to each their own... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I concede the point. Me, personally, I find LR pattern forecasting and sniffing out snow chances FAR more interesting. The warmth makes me want to vomit. But to each their own... Its disgusting but its the only sure bet at this point. Its more depressing to see snow chances and have them go poof 12 hours later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Next below normal day of any meaning will be Jan. 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Next below normal day of any meaning will be Jan. 7. 20 year anniversary of the big one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I concede the point. Me, personally, I find LR pattern forecasting and sniffing out snow chances FAR more interesting. The warmth makes me want to vomit. But to each their own...agreed we had plenty of warmth this summer ...and fall time for cold and snow. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Sure because we know how accurate 10 day forecasts are. Falling AO does suggest there may be a brief window of opportunity but ensembles say otherwise. Which ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 EPS with a strong signal for d10. Foreign models on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Which ensembles?I already called him on it. He won't respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I already called him on it. He won't respond. JB is honking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 wtf. there are many members here of many forums. why are you making this an issue about wolf and why is it allowed to stand? come on guys, this has been a peaceful place for a long time and wolf is a good guy. back off.The banter thread is and will continue to be loosely moderated. All banter/wishcasting/fighting belongs in here. I would rather not have the bs arguments/fights that take place but as everyone knows, they are bound to happen at times. As long as no one goes over the line all will be well.Discussion threads will be more strictly moderated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 where's the good pattern? which hour? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 where's the good pattern? which hour? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html We stop torching in the very long range. That's a low bar for a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 there's still a positive ao and a trough in the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 JB is honkingOf course he is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Of course he is You are insufferable...good grief. ---- Forky, I'll bite and play your game. Since you cherry picked today's GFS ensembles, you won't see a good pattern per se, although it is by no means bad, and it is MUCH better than today's pattern. However, if you cherry picked last night's GFS ensembles, you would have seen a HECS pattern. All of the ensembles in some form have shown a very nice pattern in the LR over the past few days. Clearly, a step down process is about to begin. There is also strong evidence that a much stronger SSWE is about to occur and evidence, for example, looking at the CFS Weeklies, that the PV begins to displace close to New Years. ENSO, as you know, has likely peaked as we saw with this weeks numbers, and as upwelling is now occurring in regions 1/1.2. All of this you know already, of course, hence why your post above made me chuckle. Next week is the worst of the warmth, though we may have another moderation period later in the month as the -EPO ridge collapses and the pattern briefly reloads for one last gasp before the PV comes crashing down, early to mid Jan. What I, and a few others, have been discussing today, is the transient blocking signature present on all models in the d10-d12 range, and the storm that all the models have in the SE during that time frame. There is widespread support for this storm, and it makes sense synoptically, as we have a trough rolling east and s/w getting caught up in Southern Canada because of the Scandinavian block . What this is doing is, forcing the final of these vorts to dig and ride under the base of the trough as it slides east, causing what I believe is a threat that should be watched. The CMC, CMC Ens, Euro, EPS and GEFS all have varying levels of support for this system. The Euro control run gave us a MECS today. It will change...and likely will not happen. But it is something to watch. And sure as hell beats discussing warmth in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 20 year anniversary of the big one 20 years!!!!! Wow no I'm officially old. That's the first storm I remember soup to nuts even tracking it on the old weather channel. My friends and I made a killing shoveling snow. $50 a house in 1995 was great money for a bunch of teenagers!! I vividly remember the day after it snowed lightly for hours and hours on the island big fluffy flakes that' looked like they would pile up but never amounted to much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 i don't see a hecs pattern http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 20 years!!!!! Wow no I'm officially old. That's the first storm I remember soup to nuts even tracking it on the old weather channel. My friends and I made a killing shoveling snow. $50 a house in 1995 was great money for a bunch of teenagers!! I vividly remember the day after it snowed lightly for hours and hours on the island big fluffy flakes that' looked like they would pile up but never amounted to much more. January 96 was my first real snowstorm since February 1983. There were some nice storms in 1994, but they couldn't compare to 83 or 96 in the snowfall department. I am glad that the weather boards weren't around for that epic snow drought. Would have resembled a weather version of Fight Club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 i don't see a hecs pattern http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html *Sigh* ... okay, I'll continue playing Forky. Last night's 0z GFS was advertising a blocked up HECS pattern at the end. Tanked -EPO and strongly -NAO. Keep cherry picking though, because that's difficult to do at 360 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 You can snow in a bad pattern in MID DEC " if " a NEG can swing through the slot as your 850s crash . Is it a good pattern NO Can you still snow in this set up YES Why are we arguing about a day 10.5 smoothed out Ensemble mean , I guess because people like to argue . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 ^^^^ Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I'm more interested in a certain pattern, which is one that'll produce record highs. From a meteorological standpoint it's much more fascinating to see something like this unfold. It's going to be bizarre seeing so many people wear t-shirts and even shorts in mid December. It's a taste of the Deep South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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