wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 what I mean why is it only the 18z with the monster storms like yesterday afternoon I know the potential is there But it seems only the 18z gives us the true weekie Storm Today's 12z JMA, as an example, would have been similar to yesterday's 18z GFS. Expect a wild ride over the next few days as models try to key in on the right pieces of energy. The periods to watch are the 1/17-1/19 and 1/20-1/22. A historic pattern is about to set up for a couple of weeks. Much higher chances than usual to cash in on something sizable. Would be nice to topple the astronomically low stats on NYC Winter snow totals after getting no snow in December+. Here was the JMA today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Today's 12z JMA, as an example, would have been similar to yesterday's 18z GFS. Expect a wild ride over the next few days as models try to key in on the right pieces of energy. The periods to watch are the 1/17-1/19 and 1/20-1/22. A historic pattern is about to set up for a couple of weeks. Much higher chances than usual to cash in on something sizable. Would be nice to topple the astronomically low stats on NYC Winter snow totals after getting no snow in December+. Here was the JMA today Trying hard not to live and die with each model and their respective runs. We've seen just about every conceivable solution from a HECS to an OTS and everything in between and we're still over a week away. One promising thing to consider in all this mayhem is that the models consistently show a storm. That's why I'm pretty confident we will cash in on a sizable snow event during the dates you mentioned. How much is yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 GFS 0z run is a bit stronger by (3 millibars) with the clipper and digging a bit more by hour 90... Edit: by hour 96, 102 and 108 it flies by as an disorganized wave that produces a dusting at best. Much less than 18z though it looked more organized when in the upper Michigan. Many more runs to go but it doesn't look like a blockbuster to say the least. On to the next system of Jan 17th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 GFS 0z run is a bit stronger by (3 millibars) with the clipper and digging a bit more by hour 90...It has virtually nothing for us as the storm develops over Maine (and bombs out there rather qyickly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 It has virtually nothing for us as the storm develops over Maine (and bombs out there rather qyickly) Snow showers and really cold temps rush in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 GFS by hour 185 looks to be more amplified and may be inching more north than the 18z run. Edit: definitely a better run. The storm looked a bit less suppressed and inched north with more of its moisture. Cold enough for snow too. Plenty of times for this to become a classic Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Snow showers and really cold temps rush in.heard the jma was a dream look on the mid atl thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 heard the jma was a dream look on the mid atl thread and since when do we EVEr listen to the JMA. I think this much can be said, even seriou Mets are talking about a potential storm 9 days out, this reflects the dearth of chances. But we are in a significantly better pattern. Lets just have the Sun storm bomb out in the 50/50 and go from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Very active GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Over the next several days we will be looking for agreement and consistency of the key computer models and then we will be more confident of a NYC solid snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 0z Euro showed a 966 low just east of the benchmark at 168. Just missed a huge snowstorm on this run for next weekend. Way earlier than every other model. We still see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 What were the mb for the 2010 blizzard, jan 27 2011 and the 2015 blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 0z Euro showed a 966 low just east of the benchmark at 168. Just missed a huge snowstorm on this run for next weekend. Way earlier than every other model. We still see some snow.Is that may be the best news I've heard all day and it is a sizable LP I'm actually happy we're not in the bullseye right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 What were the mb for the 2010 blizzard, jan 27 2011 and the 2015 blizzard? Not sure. I believe below 970 for boxing day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 There are several powerful short waves in the the southern jet stream. The 0z Saturday European takes the shortwave at 120 hours over Texas and Oklahoma and develops into a major snowstorm for NC VA MD DEL and slides the Low off the coast clipping Cape Cod . The 0z GFS sees that shortwave over Texas and Oklahoma at 120 hours BUT it crushes into a weak flat system in the Gulf at 144 the surface Low does not develop into anything significant. Instead the 0z GFS has a moderate amount of snow and ice from Tennessee Valley and portions of NC VA followed by a weak LOW that slides off the coast. Instead the GFS focuses on an next shortwave coming out of the SW states and develops that one is the major East Coast snowstorm at 234 hours I have no idea which solution is correct but I will say that given the fact that we are dealing with a strong enhance STJ and the fact that the GFS loves to crush the short waves in the southern jet stream during Arctic outbreaks that the GFS solution for January 15-16 - ( the weak wave of Low pressure) is probably bogus and the European solution is more likely to be correct And there may be a second a significant system after January 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 JMA? who hell looks at the JMA? Today's 12z JMA, as an example, would have been similar to yesterday's 18z GFS. Expect a wild ride over the next few days as models try to key in on the right pieces of energy. The periods to watch are the 1/17-1/19 and 1/20-1/22. A historic pattern is about to set up for a couple of weeks. Much higher chances than usual to cash in on something sizable. Would be nice to topple the astronomically low stats on NYC Winter snow totals after getting no snow in December+. Here was the JMA today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 There are several powerful short waves in the the southern jet stream. The 0z Saturday European takes the shortwave at 120 hours over Texas and Oklahoma and develops into a major snowstorm for NC VA MD DEL and slides the Low off the coast clipping Cape Cod . The 0z GFS sees that shortwave over Texas and Oklahoma at 120 hours BUT it crushes into a weak flat system in the Gulf at 144 the surface Low does not develop into anything significant. Instead the 0z GFS has a moderate amount of snow and ice from Tennessee Valley and portions of NC VA followed by a weak LOW that slides off the coast. Instead the GFS focuses on an next shortwave coming out of the SW states and develops that one is the major East Coast snowstorm at 234 hours I have no idea which solution is correct but I will say that given the fact that we are dealing with a strong enhance STJ and the fact that the GFS loves to crush the short waves in the southern jet stream during Arctic outbreaks that the GFS solution for January 15-16 - ( the weak wave of Low pressure) is probably bogus and the European solution is more likely to be correct And there may be a second a significant system after January 20 Good post Dave. This pattern is a ticking timebomb with a lot of shortwaves embedded in it. The models are focusing on different waves to blow up. Should be really interesting to see what happens. I can't believe some people were actually about to give up on this winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Good post Dave. This pattern is a ticking timebomb with a lot of shortwaves embedded in it. The models are focusing on different waves to blow up. Should be really interesting to see what happens. I can't believe some people were actually about to give up on this winter lol I would bet that we get through January with little or no snow instead of a ticking time bomb event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Juno got down to 970 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 I would bet that we get through January with little or no snow instead of a ticking time bomb event. Almost everything has to go wrong for the pattern not to produce at least one significant snow event before January ends. Powder keg setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 JMA? who hell looks at the JMA? The question was asked whether that 18z GFS the other day was the only one showing a big solution. I posted the JMA from yesterday to illustrate that it is not the only model that is/would have shown a big snow event. Not to say the JMA is right, of course. The JMA solution could have been and likely has been showing up on individual ensemble runs as well. The point being that a prolific blocking regime looks to be setting up in a couple of days and there will be lots of northern stream energy getting trapped under the block, giving us storm chances. Timing plays a big role. Saying the same thing as you in your other post above. The two time periods I have been looking at our 1/16-1/18 and 1/21-1/23. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 That 00z GFS, really blows the Jan 20th storm up, still OTS, but lots of time obviously And CMC has a monster interior storm Jan 17/18 timeframe lol Should be a fun week or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Over the next several days we will be looking for agreement and consistency of the key computer models and then we will be more confident of a NYC solid snow event. Isn't that how every Storm works? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wow lol.. 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Wow lol.. 6z GFS Don't you just wish you can lock that one up and call it a day haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Don't you just wish you can lock that one up and call it a day haha Can we fast forward 8 days please.. lol Verbatim that would be an interior bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 That 00z GFS, really blows the Jan 20th storm up, still OTS, but lots of time obviously And CMC has a monster interior storm Jan 17/18 timeframe lol Should be a fun week or two Given the strength of the Block and the depicted location on most guidance, especially the ensembles at this range, an inside runner/Ohio Valley/Apps Runner event seem extremely unlikely. Storm track would be farther South with 2ndary cyclogenesis also occurring farther South and earlier with a rapidly weakening primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Isn't that how every Storm works? lol Exactly, and that is why I remind you all to hear those words before getting hyped up to a distant storm that disappoints. Anyway, I guess it is like buying a mega ball lottery ticket. You'll all excited that you might win the million, billion and the next day you are just disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Exactly, and that is why I remind you all to hear those words before getting hyped up to a distant storm that disappoints. Anyway, I guess it is like buying a mega ball lottery ticket. You'll all excited that you might win the million, billion and the next day you are just disappointed. If I win that powerball jackpot, we get to chase the next epic blizzard.....All of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 If I win that powerball jackpot, we get to chase the next epic blizzard.....All of us... Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.