Allsnow Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Do you think I can get in on the action...2 inch snows are the absolute pinnacle for snowplowing..everyone gets done but in minimal time At this point (as you know things can change) marginal temps to start event I feel it will be hard to get 2 on the pavement. Most likely it will be a salting event with falling temps wed during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Perfect for me. All the money without the back breaking labor. From a financial standpoint I would rather have it snow 2" every day then one big 8" storm. Though a really big storm (when a snow emergency is declared) I get paid double time so that's the ultimatelast year was perfect for us plowers.. No huge storms to kill equipment and once they started it kept coming. Hoping our season starts wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'd say many of us who have been around for a while are on board with this thinking. Yup. People really need to stop looking at individual storms that pop up on the models outside day 5 and just look at how beautiful and conducive the pattern is for something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 last year was perfect for us plowers.. No huge storms to kill equipment and once they started it kept coming. Hoping our season starts wednesday Last winter was a gem from mid January on. And I truly think we see something similar (not as prolific) moving forward. My snow forecast of 20-30" has not changed. So plenty of plowing coming up. I drive a john deer tractor with multiple attachments. Allot of fun to drive. Especially in the heart of Manhattan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Why is DT's thread locked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Wow hereeeeeeeree we go on the emotional model roller coaster!!!!!!!! Great pattern. Good things coming Just wait till we actually have a storm, and then at the beginning people start jumping because it's "not going as progged". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The 12z Euro just missed on a big phased bomb for Sunday. Southern stream is just a little quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Why is DT's thread locked? Regardless of how good an upcoming pattern looks, starting a specific storm thread ten days out is completely unnecessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 "Live by the models and die by the models". Wait to within five days and use ensemble forecasting to predict the probabilities of any snow potential or snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Regardless of how good an upcoming pattern looks, starting a specific storm thread ten days out is completely unnecessary. True, research has shown no skill past ten days out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The 12z Euro just missed on a big phased bomb for Sunday. Southern stream is just a little quick. The 17th storm? If so, Wow-nice to see it so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Wow-nice to see it so close. It would be nice to get a big wrapped up rainer since snow is off the table for this system anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Flurries at best on the Euro for Wednesday. Secondary develops in the Gulf of Maine. Nothing like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The 12z Euro just missed on a big phased bomb for Sunday. Southern stream is just a little quick. Any improvements from the 0z run??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Any improvements from the 0z run??? That post references the rain storm for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 That post references the rain storm for Sunday. Thanks. Keep us posted for the big kahuna! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Still early but it looks like the Euro is going to be improved for the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Poor orientation of the PV so you end up with a big positive tilted trough and it has no choice but to exit stage right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Poor orientation of the PV so you end up with a big positive tilted trough and it has no choice but to exit stage right. Your focusing on the wrong sw energy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Your focusing on the wrong sw energy... The second piece rips through Florida and then wide East as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The second piece rips through Florida and then wide East as well.The Euro is uber suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Models will change at this range. How many times before a big snow have models consistently shown a big snowy solution from 10 days out? it just went from a bit too warm to OTS, showing the swings it does. Regardless of what happens on the 17th, we could have multiple opportunities. A big change from when we were tracking 70 degree temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The Euro is uber suppression[/quote 2 posts left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The Euro is uber suppression[/quote 2 posts left? Hey champ, we don't need a running counter of his posts per day. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The Euro is uber suppression 2 posts left? Easy tiger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I unfortunately pay too much attention to snowstorms modeled 7 days out...it's a bit painful. I am curious how often the Euro for example, accurately models snowstorms at this range. At 7 days out, are the models only good for discerning broad weather patterns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I unfortunately pay too much attention to snowstorms modeled 7 days out...it's a bit painful. I am curious how often the Euro for example, accurately models snowstorms at this range. At 7 days out, are the models only good for discerning broad weather patterns? 7 days is right on the cusp of where if all the models show a significant storm you can be confident some storm will happen. I would say 70% of the time a storm of some type occurs in that scenario but as for the track forget about it, rarely beyond 84-96 hours are there not changes significant enough to impact the forecast somewhere in a large way. You have rare cases like the Euro nailing the 1996 blizzard at 168 hours to the millibar and within 50 miles and the Canadian getting the 2/25/10 storm right at 240 but those are just coincidence and model luck more than anybjngb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 7 days is right on the cusp of where if all the models show a significant storm you can be confident some storm will happen. I would say 70% of the time a storm of some type occurs in that scenario but as for the track forget about it, rarely beyond 84-96 hours are there not changes significant enough to impact the forecast somewhere in a large way. You have rare cases like the Euro nailing the 1996 blizzard at 168 hours to the millibar and within 50 miles and the Canadian getting the 2/25/10 storm right at 240 but those are just coincidence and model luck more than anybjngb Now that is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Now that is impressive. And that was 20 years ago. You'd think with the technology today that would be more common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Dont forget, the GFS did an outstanding job with PD2 14 days in advance! Still have the maps somewhere on a disk. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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