Rjay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Alot of warm weenies on here. I have no clue how people can not see how the pattern moving forward is a much better one than now with some snow chances. Even in the sne thread they arent talking about anything except warmth. Patience Ant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 They still say "y'all" in parts of NoVA, just depends where. Travel down 95 or west on 66 for a few miles. Yes. True. But didn't think many in Jersey said it. Most of NoVa is not real VA but a bunch of transplants like me who have govt jobs. But you don't have to travel far to hit the south. When it comes to the lack of winter we are all family at this point. Hope is changes soon for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Yes. True. But didn't think many in Jersey said it. Most of NoVa is not real VA but a bunch of transplants like me who have govt jobs. But you don't have to travel far to hit the south. When it comes to the lack of winter we are all family at this point. Hope is changes soon for all of us. It was forced. I also use the term heckfire from time to time. But I am born and raised in Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Alot of warm weenies on here. I have no clue how people can not see how the pattern moving forward is a much better one than now with some snow chances. Even in the sne thread they arent talking about anything except warmth. It is odd isn't it. I mean, the GFS and GEFS AND EPS are showing a HECS pattern in the LR and several posters are still harping on and on about warmth. It's mayhem. Looks like El Nino may finally be cooling off as the last weekly numbers indicated, and there is evidence is a much stronger attack on the PV occurring in the d8-d12 range. All good things for the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Alot of warm weenies on here. I have no clue how people can not see how the pattern moving forward is a much better one than now with some snow chances. Even in the sne thread they arent talking about anything except warmth. We'll need a few more days to see if the pattern really is heading in a better direction. Even if it is, it's still going to take until January before we benefit as the cold air dumps out west. If the 18z gfs is correct in the LR, then that would be a great sign of a much better pattern beyond Xmas and into the new year. It would also take us away from a 97/98 year which had practically no cold anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 It is odd isn't it. I mean, the GFS and GEFS AND EPS are showing a HECS pattern in the LR and several posters are still harping on and on about warmth. It's mayhem. Looks like El Nino may finally be cooling off as the last weekly numbers indicated, and there is evidence is a much stronger attack on the PV occurring in the d8-d12 range. All good things for the second half. All of the models show a -NAO and -EPO in the mid to long range with multiple snow chances. I guess it can't snow in December in strong el nino years We'll need a few more days to see if the pattern really is heading in a better direction. Even if it is, it's still going to take until January before we benefit as the cold air dumps out west. If the 18z gfs is correct in the LR, then that would be a great sign of a much better pattern beyond Xmas and into the new year. It would also take us away from a 97/98 year which had practically no cold anywhere. I think the pattern is going to get much better starting around the 18th with a possible storm. The models want to develop a weak -NAO around that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Did you say y'all? We don't even say that here. Youse guys gotta love the idea of some ridging in Greenland. It's ok I'm from Toms River...just transplanted to NoVa I've caught myself saying it a few times recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 It is odd isn't it. I mean, the GFS and GEFS AND EPS are showing a HECS pattern in the LR and several posters are still harping on and on about warmth. It's mayhem. Looks like El Nino may finally be cooling off as the last weekly numbers indicated, and there is evidence is a much stronger attack on the PV occurring in the d8-d12 range. All good things for the second half.You're kidding right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 For everyone actually looking for cold and snow, the 0z not surprisingly has an additional cutter before the real hurt comes in toward the end of the run, with an almost Jan 96 look to it at 500mb. More EPS members support snow in the 12/19-12/22 timeframe now, so something to continue watching. 6z GFS also advertising a much colder pattern in the long range, supported by the 0z Ens and EPS. The worst of it will be this Sunday/Monday...then we're on the road to Winter. Sizable SSWE about to impact the PV as well...next 8-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 For everyone actually looking for cold and snow, the 0z not surprisingly has an additional cutter before the real hurt comes in toward the end of the run, with an almost Jan 96 look to it at 500mb. More EPS members support snow in the 12/19-12/22 timeframe now, so something to continue watching. 6z GFS also advertising a much colder pattern in the long range, supported by the 0z Ens and EPS. The worst of it will be this Sunday/Monday...then we're on the road to Winter. Sizable SSWE about to impact the PV as well...next 8-10 days. Yes the heat is in the front of this pattern. Enjoy it . We will be stepping down once into early Jan . Dec was always suppose to be warm so I would caution extrapolating this early pattern through the rest of winter . The Euro seasonal continues to stand firm in it`s retrogression J- M . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 At least there's some optimism in here now. Hell someone even calling it a KU pattern. It's nice to see everyone enjoying the warmth and smoking doobies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I think some of us were just having some fun with the expected torch, I was. IMHO, things seem to be moving along as was layed out by most in the pre-season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 For everyone actually looking for cold and snow, the 0z not surprisingly has an additional cutter before the real hurt comes in toward the end of the run, with an almost Jan 96 look to it at 500mb. More EPS members support snow in the 12/19-12/22 timeframe now, so something to continue watching. 6z GFS also advertising a much colder pattern in the long range, supported by the 0z Ens and EPS. The worst of it will be this Sunday/Monday...then we're on the road to Winter. Sizable SSWE about to impact the PV as well...next 8-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Yes the heat is in the front of this pattern. Enjoy it . We will be stepping down once into early Jan . Dec was always suppose to be warm so I would caution extrapolating this early pattern through the rest of winter . But this level of warmth is unprecedented. I know even you're surprised and the scary part is that the warmest is yet to come when current departures are already in the +5-6 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Yes the heat is in the front of this pattern. Enjoy it . We will be stepping down once into early Jan . Dec was always suppose to be warm so I would caution extrapolating this early pattern through the rest of winter . But this level of warmth is unprecedented. I know even you're surprised and the scary part is that the warmest is yet to come when current departures are already in the +5-6 range. Non event . If the 1st 20 days end up 20 above it has zero effect on the season . After the 18/20 the the extremes come down and by week 4 you maybe close to N . Don't worry about departures in December and ignore the guidance in J thru M Irrelevant aanamolies unless you are trading HDD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Wolf has been a very good poster on here for the last 3 winters I don't understand the negativity towards his posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Wolf has been a very good poster on here for the last 3 winters I don't understand the negativity towards his postsThanks. I have a controversial reputation based largely on my stupidity as a poster many years ago. Reality is, in terms of temperatures, early next week is probably the worst of it, then we see how long it takes for the lower parts of the atmosphere to respond to positive changes occurring in the tropopause and stratosphere. Last nights gfs went bonkers, most likely jumping the gun. But, there's usually a reason for these chaotic flips once they start happening. Frankly, I think the GEFS is leading the way here over the EPS. GEFS likely rushing it, eps likely too delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Please rebuff any of my analysis, which matches Paul's btw, with some meteorological reasoning. I've explained that the stratosphere is forecast to warm significantly at 50 hpa in 8-10 days. The cfs weeklies now show PV displacement at 10 hpa later in December. El Niño has peaked which is evidenced by the last set of weekly numbers, and the cold pool upwelling into regions 1/1.2. Furthermore, models are now going into their usual chaotic flips, common preceding large scale pattern changes. Historic analogs correlate to a cold and snowy second half with arctic blocking, also starting to show on models, though likely rushed a bit. The step down pattern shift begins next week and we should be in full swing by the first or second week in January. What's your meteorological rebuttal? No SSWE? No ENSO peak? No indication of pattern shift on models? The big question to me is after we have the cool down 12/17-12/25 give or take, do we get another burst of torch or do we step down from there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The big question to me is after we have the cool down 12/17-12/25 give or take, do we get another burst of torch or do we step down from there?Good question. I doubt we torch, per se, but we'll need to see how the pattern evolves next week to determine if another moderation occurs and how mild it gets.And remember that averages are dropping as we head deeper into December, so don't be scared by bright red and orange maps showing departures well above normal into Hudson Bay. We saw this last year too. Snow cover can be quickly refreshed up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Wolf has been a very good poster on here for the last 3 winters I don't understand the negativity towards his posts He's a good poster. I was also attacked yesterday for saying winter is coming at the end of this month lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 How is there no discussion about the CMC pattern and GFS near miss around d10? Sheesh. Tough crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 How is there no discussion about the CMC pattern and GFS near miss around d10? Sheesh. Tough crowd. A couple models are toying with the idea of more winter-like weather as we head into winter. DISCUSS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 CMC major snow event favoring interior. CMC ens two day snowstorm for most of the area. Euro just misses a major snow event. D10. Obs thread rambling on and on about warmth. Real pattern evolution and threat tracking is in banter. Go figure. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Euro and ggem says game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Euro and ggem says game on details? Storm and then colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 PV on the move at the end of the Euro. It was a phenomenal run, but it's cool to talk about positive departures and ENSO records right now, so... Alas, as Paul indicated earlier, pattern is likely to be transient until early Jan at the earliest, so we may see another warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Euro and ggem says game on Sure because we know how accurate 10 day forecasts are. Falling AO does suggest there may be a brief window of opportunity but ensembles say otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 CMC major snow event favoring interior. CMC ens two day snowstorm for most of the area. Euro just misses a major snow event. D10. Obs thread rambling on and on about warmth. Real pattern evolution and threat tracking is in banter. Go figure. Lol I just extrapolated the 84 hour NAM out to day 10, should produce a two day blizzard, 36 inches+, 35 mph winds, gusts to 45 mph... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Sure because we know how accurate 10 day forecasts are. Falling AO does suggest there may be a brief window of opportunity but ensembles say otherwise.False. The EPS has been featuring more and more members as hits for this storm. The CNC ens from today are a two day blizzard. You're spreading misinformation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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