Superstorm93 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Just a massive transition into a pattern ripe with potential on the GFS. Have to love the changes its made to the PNA and NAO over the past 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 1060 high into greenland on the GFS. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 Amazing change of events for the better today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 That 13th event is gonna happen..at least somewhere, it may not make it all the way up the coast but I would be surprised if at the very least the SE states don't see some sort of winter event, the H5 look has been getting better all day on each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Time to breakout the barbecues in Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 That 13th event is gonna happen..at least somewhere, it may not make it all the way up the coast but I would be surprised if at the very least the SE states don't see some sort of winter event, the H5 look has been getting better all day on each run. The GFS is clipper City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 That 13th event is gonna happen..at least somewhere, it may not make it all the way up the coast but I would be surprised if at the very least the SE states don't see some sort of winter event, the H5 look has been getting better all day on each run. You think the PV will end up screwing us up here possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 You think the PV will end up screwing us up here possibly? Not on that event but if the crazy west based NAO happens, maybe after the 20th. The 13th could miss simply due to a missed phase as the pattern sort of is still just setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Not on that event but if the crazy west based NAO happens, maybe after the 20th. The 13th could miss simply due to a missed phase as the pattern sort of is still just setting up. Hopefully we can make up for the bad luck of 2010 if that pattern does come to fruition. Great look at hr 162 for the 13th event though. Looking forward to what the Euro has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 1060 high into greenland on the GFS. WOW. 1065 at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 We Need to ban the word IF on our forum here gets me every time Telly https://youtu.be/J94-_w9ARX0 Telly like it IS!!!!! http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ensmean_usbg_animation.html If---- I could just find my snow googles.......LOL http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016010700&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'd be very wary of the GEFS/GFS Op right now. It's report card has "needs improvement" triple circled. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ensm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Loop through the 0z gefs mean. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Loop through the 0z gefs mean. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html#picture Wow. What a block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 7, 2016 Author Share Posted January 7, 2016 Strong blocking showing up on the Euro it looks like. Not as strong as the GFS but its there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Superstorm93 thank you for taking the time for that informative post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Awful 06z gfs op run. It wants to cut every system resulting in rain and mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Awful 06z gfs op run. It wants to cut every system resulting in rain and mild. Don't expect great results from a 06z Gfs run. By 12z it will be night and day difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Awful 06z gfs op run. It wants to cut every system resulting in rain and mild. I'd be very wary of the GEFS/GFS Op right now. It's report card has "needs improvement" triple circled - courtesy superstorm's post from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Gfs ensembles look much better than op on the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The pattern looks slightly promising for the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Bernie rayno just is not convinced about next week feels more confident about New England storm Shocker http://bit.ly/1OODYMU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The pattern looks slightly promising for the next few weeks. Slightly? Try a lot better than what we have been having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Slightly? Try a lot better than what we have been having.Compared to December, 2001-2002 would be a gift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Compared to December, 2001-2002 would be a gift 4 posts left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Compared to December, 2001-2002 would be a gift yep, this pattern screams 01-02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I'm not too concerned about the 13th since the signal for the 17th looks very, very nice. I've been of the belief that this winter had a big storm in it, despite largely being one that would end up pretty damn mild overall..especially early. The more I look at the 15-18th time frame, the more I like it...especially in New England This first system was never going to be anything to get excited about, and always felt it was oversold from the get-go. A marginal air mass without significant high pressure in Quebec and an ENSO modulated MJO induced plains trough/NE ridge. Not the setup you want for a storm, especially along the coast. However, this first system will end up setting the stage for a 50/50 low, and should also help with pumping heights over Greenland. While the 13th storm will likely end up having too much northern stream interference to end up being a hit here, you will have established a legitimate 50/50 low for later in the month. You have a truly legitimate -NAO for that 15-18th period, and subsequently should have less northern stream interference in that 15-18th time frame as well. I think if there's a positive setup for a storm, that's going to be your time frame. Otherwise, I think this is/was a great learning experience for many as to how individual model runs provide a lot of noise, but you can fade a view towards a general idea if you know what's forcing the pattern. The fading of an extended cold threat as it gets closer to happening in the northeast would end up supporting the idea that an MJO with ENSO forcing is not the same as your run of the mill MJO event. Forcing matters, and these analogs have (in my opinion) passed the test this go around and were a useful forecasting tool for this first 12 days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Good post. Yeah, the cold looks to be centered more on the Midwest next week. We look BN but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Compared to December, 2001-2002 would be a gift 2001-2002? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Good post. Yeah, the cold looks to be centered more on the Midwest next week. We look BN but not by much. In mid Jan a week of - 3 to -5 is cold enough , and if there is any cover post Jan 17 you keep any warm up muted . There may be multiple chances in this pattern . This is by no means a 1 and done pattern once past mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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