SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 sunday's event looked like a possible snowstorm at this range too Totally different world though, that was simply the models rushing the pattern change of the trof coming to the East Coast. If something follows closely on the heels of this coming system like the 12Z GFS has its gonna be a snow event nearly 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Ah, I've found the storm on cmc, though further south, at hours 00z,12z time frames , on January 5th runs. Though these are individual runs, there's deft something possibly brewing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Plenty of blocking on the op gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 you need to post images or a link now with an explanation ......... Not every image needs to be posted. Im talking about backing up debates, proving points, explaning discussions, etc. weenie banter is fine as long as its not constant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The storm around the 13th is almost non existent on the 12z GEFS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Ecmwf, Jan 3Rd shows a storm at 00z, east if us with pressure of 983mb but hasn't picked up any kind if storm since. None of esembles show any thing prior to yesterday except gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The storm around the 13th is almost non existent on the 12z GEFS mean. Members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Tropical tidbits so slow to update12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Members? One member that develops quickly South of Long Island a few that develop later and nail New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The UKMET at 144 looks like it's doing something similar to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 @antmasiello 25m25 minutes ago The pattern ahead is nothing like last 2 winters. It's one that features a true -NAO developing and true Nino N Pac circulation. @antmasiello 1h1 hour ago Yes this weekend's inland runner is important in terms of transitioning NAO to something mor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 The UKMET at 144 looks like it's doing something similar to the GFS Ok,so tropical titbits is good, where do I go to see that model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Over/Under 0 degrees at kickoff Sunday in Minnesota? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 Funny just a week ago 35 degrees felt cold but now it feels good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Funny just a week ago 35 degrees felt cold but now it feels good. i love the fresh cold air. i need to move to the mountains or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Over/Under 0 degrees at kickoff Sunday in Minnesota? If I was a betting man (i'm a betting man), i'd say under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 If I was a betting man (i'm a betting man), i'd say under. Seattle has no shot if that ends up being the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Seattle has no shot if that ends up being the case. at that temp I'm not sure it really benefits anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Next week has solid potential for a snowstorm (probably would favor areas NE of us) and the long term prospects look pretty pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 HM on Twitter "The pattern ahead is nothing like last 2 winters. It's one that features a true -NAO developing and true Nino N Pac circulation." "1. Don't write off Jan 13-14th wave in SE yet. Yes EPS favors suppression for now. 2. Traditional -NAO being signaled mid month. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I still think we have till the beginning of February but growing signs of a true SSW in early February, true strong NAO and AO blocking to start February and I think we go into a cold and snowy pattern for that month. I have no changes in my thoughts for the remainder of January, I think the end of this month goes above normal and below normal snow. Not going to think about March yet, past strong Nino climo argues March isn't good but plenty of time to sort that out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I still think we have till the beginning of February but growing signs of a true SSW in early February, true strong NAO and AO blocking to start February and I think we go into a cold and snowy pattern for that month. I have no changes in my thoughts for the remainder of January, I think the end of this month goes above normal and below normal snow. Not going to think about March yet, past strong Nino climo argues March isn't good but plenty of time to sort that out... Models are showing the blocking start as early as next week. Very strong block on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Models are showing the blocking start as early as next week. Very strong block on the Euro. that's what's good-this is not day 10 fantasy. Looks real. Whether we get to -5 or -6 STD remains to be seen IMO but we may not want that strong of a block locally-remember 09-10 and how most of it stayed south of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 that's what's good-this is not day 10 fantasy. Looks real. Whether we get to -5 or -6 STD remains to be seen IMO but we may not want that strong of a block locally-remember 09-10 and how most of it stayed south of NYC good winter but could have been great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I think the storm around mid-month definitely needs to be watched. With strong ridging in the West and cold air anchored just to our West, me may be able to thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Still think that best storm window is 15-18. Don't hate it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Still think that best storm window is 15-18. Don't hate it at all. Not a bad thought, should be at the peak of the - NAO with the PV starting to slide out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I am still kind of new so I may be completely wrong but the negative NAO that is being forecasted is East based right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 I still think we have till the beginning of February but growing signs of a true SSW in early February, true strong NAO and AO blocking to start February and I think we go into a cold and snowy pattern for that month. I have no changes in my thoughts for the remainder of January, I think the end of this month goes above normal and below normal snow. Not going to think about March yet, past strong Nino climo argues March isn't good but plenty of time to sort that out... Noted. I'll let someone else check if this is your first forecast for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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