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Met Winter Banter


dmillz25

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98 was pretty average temp wise, on the dry side. 2010 was another story

98 I think was one of the relatively cooler summers following a niño to Niña transition. The vast majority have been very warm I believe. I know 1983 was in August. There is a fine line though it seems depending on if you transition to a La Niña as I said earlier. The summer of 03 was miserable

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The good news is there's much more variability in the winter than in the summer, so +13 in the warm season doesn't seem plausible.

I wouldn't mind hitting 100F this summer, though.

Good call. But let's just say it did happen... That would be hellacious. Kind of like a coastal Carolina summer heat wave where they have temps to 110 with heat index over 120.

I think we hit 100 this summer

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Deaths would be in the thousands if we had 98-100 an entire month straight with lows in the 80s

Most people I think have AC these days so I don't know how bad it would be. In 1995 Chicago had a huge number of deaths in a heat wave but that was ancient history compared to now, 1995 was only 15-20 years removed from most people still not having AC in their homes

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Most people I think have AC these days so I don't know how bad it would be. In 1995 Chicago had a huge number of deaths in a heat wave but that was ancient history compared to now, 1995 was only 15-20 years removed from most people still not having AC in their homes

Very true about the AC. But there are still some without especially poor elderly and they are at the most risk.

Just going in to the subways under that scenario could be dangerous. This summer was by no means a scorcher and the subway was unbearable

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Very true about the AC. But there are still some without especially poor elderly and they are at the most risk.

Just going in to the subways under that scenario could be dangerous. This summer was by no means a scorcher and the subway was unbearable

This is from the heatwave from 2006 which was nothing like a month straight of 100s

At least 31 deaths due to the heat were reported in New York City by August 16. [2] At least 13 died in Queens, 9 in Brooklyn, 5 in Manhattan and 1 in The Bronx. [3] By the end of August, authorities totaled 40 deaths in New York, however a later mortality review in November 2006 revealed that heat was a factor in 140 deaths.[17][18]

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Most people I think have AC these days so I don't know how bad it would be. In 1995 Chicago had a huge number of deaths in a heat wave but that was ancient history compared to now, 1995 was only 15-20 years removed from most people still not having AC in their homes

Yes but after a prolonged period of such heat is when units begin to fail. Too hot to catch up and will not produce the same cold as if it were just a couple day extreme torch.
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El Nino January's ao/nao listed coldest first...snowfall and biggest snowfall...the -ao/nao isn't a lock for a cold or snowy January and a positive ao/nao isn't a lock for a mild snowless January...1988, 2015, 1959, 2005 had a plus ao/nao and was still below average...only 1959 had less snow than average...1964, 1978, 2005, had a major storm a foot or more...only 1977 had a below zero temperature...

winter.......ave temp snowfall big snows..... AO...NAO

1977..........22.1.......13.0".........5.2".....-3.767.....-1.04

1970..........25.1.........8.4".........3.4".....-2.412.....-1.50

2003..........27.5.........4.7".........2.0".....-0.472......0.16

1978..........28.0.......20.3".......13.6".....-0.347..... 0.66

1988..........29.5.......13.9".........5.8"......0.265......1.02

2015..........29.9.......16.9".........9.8"......1.092......1.79

1954..........30.8.......12.7".........8.6".....-0.148......0.37

1959..........31.1.........1.5".........1.0".....-2.013.....-0.87

2005..........31.3.......15.3".......13.8"......0.356......1.52

1969..........31.8.........1.0".........1.0".....-2.967.....-0.83

1958..........31.9.........9.2".........4.5".....-1.438.....-0.54

1966..........32.2.......11.6".........6.8".....-3.232.....-1.74

1987..........32.3.......13.6".........8.1".....-1.148.....-1.15

2010..........32.5.........2.1".........1.3".....-2.587.....-1.11

1980..........33.7.........2.0".........2.0".....-2.066.....-1.74

1983..........34.5.........1.9".........1.9"......1.359......1.59

1973..........35.5.........1.8".........1.8"......1.232......0.04

1964..........35.7.......13.3".......12.5"......0.385.....-0.95

1992..........35.7.........1.5".........1.3"......0.550.....-0.13

1952..........36.2.........6.2".........5.5"......0.368......0.93

1995..........37.5.........0.2".........0.2".....-0.154......0.93

2007..........37.5.........2.6".........1.6"......2.034......0.22

1998..........40.0.........0.5".........0.5".....-2.081......0.39

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Deaths would be in the thousands if we had 98-100 an entire month straight with lows in the 80s

It's pretty freakin' brutal when it's like that. We literally went from upper 90s to 6"+ of rain from the remnants of Patricia here in TX in mid-October in 2-3 days. Before that we had a 45 day stretch of pretty much constant upper 90s and above. TX summers are horrible.

 

From a deluge and extreme flooding statewide in early June to exceptional drought for many by the time Patricia arrived. That's some wicked heat. 

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It's pretty freakin' brutal when it's like that. We literally went from upper 90s to 6"+ of rain from the remnants of Patricia here in TX in mid-October in 2-3 days. Before that we had a 45 day stretch of pretty much constant upper 90s and above. TX summers are horrible.

From a deluge and extreme flooding statewide in early June to exceptional drought for many by the time Patricia arrived. That's some wicked heat.

And let's face it, NYC is light years behind cities like Houston Atlanta and Austin when it comes to dealing with the heat and between the age of the buildings and population density it's almost impossible to modernize

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And let's face it, NYC is light years behind cities like Houston Atlanta and Austin when it comes to dealing with the heat and between the age of the buildings and population density it's almost impossible to modernize

In the A/C it isn't bad, and every building here has A/C, but yeah, pretty much imagine the uncooled subway stations in August, outside with the stronger Sun in the South every day for weeks. I wasn't used to weather so hot that you couldn't be outside before 8pm or after 10am. Austin is a little less humid than cities closer to the Gulf coast, but the highs are usually a few degrees hotter to compensate. The average early August high here is 98. We had a period in late September where it became comfortable, but in early-mid October the death ridge came back and we were again 95-100 every day until Patricia hit. Imagine going from absolutely soaked grounds and some rivers in record flood, to bone dry ground, extreme drought and wildfires in 3 months. I think we had officially 25 days at or above 100. 

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