PB GFI Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Pretty sure he's saying there hasn't been one this year and there's none in sight so the 1958 analog is meh. Disagree brother , Its Jan 4 . The strat warm occurred mid to later in Jan in 58 The 58 analog is VG so far . Basin wide heat . Forcing between 160 - 180 .Warm Dec . Trough developing in the means in the SE. How could it be meh , if we are not at that SSW period yet . It might fall apart but that`s for a later Jan post not Jan 4 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I would argue that the Euro may already be picking up on the next warming event over Eurasia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 That is pretty darn close. Very interesting test coming up here with phase 1. There's not a large sample size with a true phase 1 response in January, but from what we have available to us it is decidedly warmer as a GOA trough returns and blocking dies out quickly. Should we see a true phase 1 response (which is not necessarily a given here), it will either add credibility to the trends observed in the previous mod-strong ENSO forcing events or change a lot of people's minds about what phase 1 means. I felt really good about phase 8. Less so for phase 1, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I would argue that the Euro may already be picking up on the next warming event over Eurasia.How's this month's major SSW that you predicted coming along? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 That is not a textbook +EPO. Good god almighty. The GEFS mean from overnight is a smoothed -EPO in the means through the run. If you're new here...a pro tip. Don't listen to Forky. Trolls will always be trolls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Disagree brother , Its Jan 4 . The strat warm occurred mid to later in Jan in 58 The 58 analog is VG so far . Basin wide heat . Forcing between 160 - 180 .Warm Dec . Trough developing in the means in the SE. How could it be meh , if we are not at that SSW period yet . It might fall apart but that`s for a later Jan post not Jan 4 . I was just stating what I thought Forky was trying to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I was just stating what I thought Forky was trying to say.you were right. i didn't think my statement was ambiguous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Earthlight still thinks winter is coming mid January and will be here for a while.Sit back and relax. Winter is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 That is not a textbook +EPO. Good god almighty. The GEFS mean from overnight is a smoothed -EPO in the means through the run. If you're new here...a pro tip. Don't listen to Forky.the actual pattern is more important than whatever value an index has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Wow. This thread is a disaster. It's weather, there are no winners and losers. That's the point... wait til we get an actual storm threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 you were right. i didn't think my statement was ambiguous I wasn`t disagreeing with what your intent was ( my god ) . I disagreed that you made the the assertion of why there was no correlation before the event you questioned is even here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Earthlight still thinks winter is coming mid January and will be here for a while.Sit back and relax. Winter is coming. He also predicted an epic severe storm season and busted horribly, as it was the least active storm season in decades. He even admitted that he completely tanked his forecast. Lesson? No met is infallible, and certainly not Wolf or PB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 He also predicted an epic severe storm season and busted horribly, as it was the least active storm season in decades. He even admitted that he completely tanked his forecast. Lesson? No met is infallible, and certainly not Wolf or PB. You`re angry over the Chapman thing aren`t you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 You`re angry over the Chapman thing aren`t you ? Ehhh lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 You`re angry over the Chapman thing aren`t you ? Haha no, definitely not. I'm just saying that just because the great mighty Earthlight says something, doesn't mean it will happen. John is a great met, but he's been wrong many times, as has everyone. Alot of weenies on this board, which is not surprising. Let the pattern play out. No need to freak out if we go snowless, it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 This place is a mess, it's also my favorite reg board. Top pic is -EPO, bottom pic is not, see the difference in NW Canada/AK. This is very 98'ish and also a struggling GEFS, it's had hard time with the PAC post day 9, I don't want to call it garbage as its led in the blocking but I am not sure it's right with the PAC. We shall see what EPS says shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I hope that's not what I'm portraying with my response. I was called out and subsequently felt the need to respond to it, since my position was mis-characterized. I'm finding that tiring and am done with it. My posting frequency isn't high in this sub-forum (and on Am Wx in general) since I tend to find this place more combative than necessary and frankly have a busy enough forecasting schedule as is. I chime in when I can. This exchange kinda re-affirmed that idea. I went through why I believed what I did back in late December, focusing largely on an MJO influence with strong ENSO background forcing. I do think this appears to be a fair assumption given the pieces in play here as we head deeper into the month and remains a great case study for how the MJO can influence large scale pattern shifts on a sub-seasonal basis. Not talking about you..I enjoy your posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 This place is a mess, it's also my favorite reg board. Top pic is -EPO, bottom pic is not, see the difference in NW Canada/AK. This is very 98'ish and also a struggling GEFS, it's had hard time with the PAC post day 9, I don't want to call it garbage as its led in the blocking but I am not sure it's right with the PAC. We shall see what EPS says shortly. The EURO and the GFS just don`t agree here . So the 98 crowd will run to it and the Euro crowd will just steer clear . And that is the argument here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Not talking about you..I enjoy your posts Like this escaped anyone here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Geez, yesterday's 12z GEFS at hour 384 sure do look different on today's 12z GEFS at hour 360. I wonder if Forky farted and caused an atmospheric response, because I don't know what else could cause it to look so different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Earthlight still thinks winter is coming mid January and will be here for a while.Sit back and relax. Winter is coming. We know winter is coming as far as cold temps. It's here right now, and it will get cold again next week. The big question obviously is will we get any snow with the cold? Right now Joe Cioffi does not sound very optimistic about snow chances in the long range. He says the trough looks too broad, rather than sharp. But there's plenty of time for changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 no paywalled maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 The EURO and the GFS just don`t agree here . So the 98 crowd will run to it and the Euro crowd will just steer clear . And that is the argument here . Agree, the GEFS has been doing this in the extended the past week or so and has been correcting as it gets closer. Seeing it forecast the AO off the charts negative is interesting as it picked up on the strong blocking before EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Dont worry earthlight will save winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Earthlight still thinks winter is coming mid January and will be here for a while.Sit back and relax. Winter is coming. Winters kinda here right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYY_2 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 lol. same ****, different year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Dont worry earthlight will save winter I thought JB was our hero? (although he needs to learn that this place is not a blog) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Dont worry earthlight will save winter Him and a million other people. Just be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Winter cancel? Did it ever really start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Did it ever really start? started today. Currently 22 here with a dewpoint of 8...going to really plummet tonight...will stop the bulbs that have sprouted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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