donsutherland1 Posted March 7, 2016 Author Share Posted March 7, 2016 Still a 9 standard deviation trough along Mexico's coast and now a >2 standard deviation ridge in the East, which will allow the exceptional warmth to persist there through Friday and perhaps even Saturday away from the coast: 3/7/2016 0z GFS MOS Highest Temperatures (3/8-12): Baltimore: 77° Boston: 66° Chicago: 65° Cleveland: 71° Detroit: 68° New York City: 72° Philadelphia: 75° Pittsburgh: 77° (3/12) Richmond: 85° Washington, DC: 80° (3/11) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Snow in Mexico City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Snow in Mexico City? No, snow at that latitude will probably be above 3500m, and there's not much in the way of precipitation either for that far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Looks like some absolutely devastating rains are poised to crush the lower Mississippi Valley. Models calling for over a foot of rain for parts of Arkansas over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 9, 2016 Author Share Posted March 9, 2016 A closer look at the now forecast 10 sigma trough along Mexico's coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Nothing short of impressive, haven't ever seen something like that before. Cold, snow, hail, t-storms, tornadoes, strong winds, you name it, everything is happening in a good chunk of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Has a major SSW event occurred or progged to occur? If so, any thoughts on sensible weather affect in US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 15, 2016 Share Posted March 15, 2016 KBUF answered my question: LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...A SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT HASUNFOLDED OVER THE PAST 3 WEEKS AND HAS ALLOWED FOR SIGNIFICANTWEAKENING OF THE STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX AND THE ASSOCIATEDSTRATOSPHERIC POLAR NIGHT JET. THIS MAJOR CHANGE IN THE GLOBALCIRCULATION PATTERN WILL FEED DOWN INTO THE TROPOSPHERE WITH HIGHLATITUDE BLOCKING BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 WEEKS. THISSHOULD ALLOW FOR PERIODIC INTRUSIONS OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREATLAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF MARCH AND POSSIBLY EARLYAPRIL. THIS LATE IN THE SEASON THE COLD AIR WILL NOT LOCK INTOPLACE...BUT THE PATTERN EVOLUTION DOES SUPPORT SEVERAL INTERLUDES OFBELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 19, 2016 Author Share Posted March 19, 2016 Some of the computer guidance, including the 3/19/2016 12z GGEM, RGEM and UKMET; 3/19/2016 12z EPS; and, 3/19/2016 18z GFS and RGEM indicate that a storm will bring a swath of potentially 4” or more snow from portions of the northern Middle Atlantic region into New England. Since 1950, there have been 20 such storms. Two of those storms brought 4” or more snow to Boston and New York City while one of those storms brought 4” or more to New York City and Philadelphia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 21, 2016 Author Share Posted March 21, 2016 With some of the computer guidance suggesting that the first week of April could feature a notable shot of cold air, it makes sense to take a look at cases during which there was measurable snowfall. Since 1950, there were 38 events that brought measurable snowfall to one or more of the following cities on April 1 or later: Baltimore, Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, Richmond, or Washington, DC. 47% of those events brought measurable snowfall to Boston, 42% to New York City, 39% to Philadelphia, 21% to Baltimore, 18% to Richmond, and 13% to Washington, DC. Boston or New York City received measurable snowfall in 76% of those cases. Boston, New York City, or Philadelphia received measurable snowfall in 89% of those cases. Baltimore or Washington, DC received measurable snowfall in 21% of those cases (every measurable snowfall event in Washington, DC also brought measurable snowfall to Baltimore). Baltimore, Richmond, or Washington, DC received measurable snowfall in 29% of those cases. The following table provides snowfall amounts for each of those events: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 25, 2016 Share Posted March 25, 2016 No more discussion regarding the potential cross-polar flow that may develop in the 7-14 day? Quite the model agreement this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 28, 2016 Author Share Posted March 28, 2016 No more discussion regarding the potential cross-polar flow that may develop in the 7-14 day? Quite the model agreement this far out. It still appears to be a fairly impressive cold shot for April, but odds may favor its being transient with a fairly quick warm-up occurring after the first week of April, especially as the EPO block is forecast to rapidly dissipate. Much of the CONUS could actually wind up having a warmer than normal April even with the early-month cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 4, 2016 Share Posted April 4, 2016 It still appears to be a fairly impressive cold shot for April, but odds may favor its being transient with a fairly quick warm-up occurring after the first week of April, especially as the EPO block is forecast to rapidly dissipate. Much of the CONUS could actually wind up having a warmer than normal April even with the early-month cold. Seems it may not be all the transient with only a brief warm-up before another impressive shot of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 4, 2016 Author Share Posted April 4, 2016 Seems it may not be all the transient with only a brief warm-up before another impressive shot of cold air. It does appear that the colder period will be a bit more sustained than I thought would be the case a week ago e.g., perhaps lasting through the 10th to the 12th. I still think the month will wind up on the warm side of normal when all is said and done, but there's more uncertainty now that a weak EPO block is forecast to redevelop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 5, 2016 Share Posted April 5, 2016 It does appear that the colder period will be a bit more sustained than I thought would be the case a week ago e.g., perhaps lasting through the 10th to the 12th. I still think the month will wind up on the warm side of normal when all is said and done, but there's more uncertainty now that a weak EPO block is forecast to redevelop. Interesting tidbit from the BUF AFD regarding the cold air source... THE MUCH MALIGNED POLAR VORTEX..WHICH BY EARLY APRIL RETREATS CLIMATOLOGICALLY TO THE VCNTY OF BAFFIN BAY (75N / 65W)...HAS BEEN LURKING SOME 500-1000 MILES FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. WHILE THIS IS A LITTLE UNUSUAL...IT IS ESPECIALLY SO GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY BLOCKING OVER GREENLAND. THIS FEATURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD WEATHER EXPERIENCED EARLIER IN THE WEEK...AND WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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