Geos Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 This first wave that's going thru right now has been dropping some impressive snow so far. Visibilities down to around a 1/4mi at times here. Haven't measured yet but it looks like at least an inch down already with another area of heavy returns coming in from the east. Edit: 3.25" and still snowing. How was flake size up there? RGEM has 0.9" of moisture into the Twin Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 How was flake size up there? RGEM has 0.9" of moisture into the Twin Cities. RGEM.png Flakes were quite large. Was expecting pretty low ratios to start, but that didn't happen. First round produced just under 4" imby. Nice to get an unexpected 4" before the storm even really ramps up.Thanks Gilbertfly! Hope we get a nice thump before the Dec torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Picked up 0.22" of cold rain since yesterday evening. For those that get the snow today/tonight, enjoy every last moment of it. May be a month before it snows again the way things are looking lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Have had some ice pellets mixed in with the rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Some sprinkles have come down here today, but nothing measurable yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Surface temps are going to be an issue it seems through the overnight. HRRR pretty much keeps MSP at 33, not really ideal for accumulation unless its ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Surface temps are going to be an issue it seems through the overnight. HRRR pretty much keeps MSP at 33, not really ideal for accumulation unless its ripping. Glad I got a nice thump early this morning, because tonight might be a big bust. When the precip started again this evening, it was snow. Now it's just a drizzly mess. MPX sounds confident that things will flip to snow and stay that way. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 12km NAM has some decent totals for the metro still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Glad I got a nice thump early this morning, because tonight might be a big bust. When the precip started again this evening, it was snow. Now it's just a drizzly mess. MPX sounds confident that things will flip to snow and stay that way. We'll see. That was a nice surprise for areas east of 35W, I might have received an inch this morning. The west metro "should" do better overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Getting into some steady rain now. Batch of rain should push the month's moisture total up to or over 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 This storm is dead. Temps still above freezing, dry slot working in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 This storm is dead. Temps still above freezing, dry slot working in. So, what's the final total? BTW, not currently in Twin Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Just looking at temps across southern MN... quite a few locations above freezing. You have to go to the southwest corner to actually get below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 So, what's the final total? BTW, not currently in Twin Cities. 1.4" at the NWS office and 2.9" at MSP as of 6pm. You can probably add 1-1.5" to those totals now. The snow this morning really helped pad totals across the east metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 This really ended up as an underwhelming storm...again. I was somewhat optimistic yesterday when high-res guidance was going bullish but that was a fail. The Euro handled the outcome fairly well (warmer and farther west), although if we didn't get the initial burst of snow yesterday morning, snow totals would of looked horrid across the metro. Anyways, as of midnight and likely close to final totals... 2.1" at the NWS office in Chanhassen and 3.9" at MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 This really ended up as an underwhelming storm...again. I was somewhat optimistic yesterday when high-res guidance was going bullish but that was a fail. The Euro handled the outcome fairly well (warmer and farther west), although if we didn't get the initial burst of snow yesterday morning, snow totals would of looked horrid across the metro. Anyways, as of midnight and likely close to final totals... 2.1" at the NWS office in Chanhassen and 3.9" at MSP. Second year in a row with a big bust to start the winter. I ended with about 5.5" total, 4" came from the surprise yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Second year in a row with a big bust to start the winter. I ended with about 5.5" total, 4" came from the surprise yesterday morning. Super bust out this way. Got barely a dusting from yesterday's morning surprise and got maybe an inch and a half out of last night. Still even have some blades of grass poking through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 RGEM still looks pretty bullish around Chicagoland tonight/tomorrow morning, relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 LOT's take EXPECTING THAT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL LATE TODAY WILL EXPAND INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS SOMETIME THIS EVENING AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND QG FORCING INCREASES. LOW- LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BOTH BE MARGINAL FOR ANY SHOWERS TO BEGIN AS SNOW...SO A BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT FIRST ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LIGHT ACTIVITY. LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 925-850MB LEVEL AS INDICATED BY THE NAM AND EC BOTH INCREASE TOWARD 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE NAM INDICATES POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ABOVE THAT AND AGAIN THIS IS THE TIME WHERE SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN. THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE STEEP WITH EVEN SOME POSITIVE CAPE OF 20-35 J/KG. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LOWERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IS WITHIN THE UPPER ZONE OF THE LIFT. THIS ALL SHOULD FAVOR FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE A.M....WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN THE UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN HOW WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE. A WARM AND WET GROUND WILL BATTLE INITIAL ACCUMULATION ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ON PAVEMENT. BUT BY WEDNESDAY A.M. WHEN MORE MODEST RATES ARE EXPECTED...THINK SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR THOUGH THEY COULD BE SPOTTY LIKE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. RECENT NAM RUNS HAVE PROVIDED THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE MEAN OF DETERMINISTIC RUNS AND SREF MEMBERS IN THE AREA OF 0.05-0.10 FOR ROCKFORD TO CHICAGO. WITH EARLIER MELTING OFFSET BY IMPROVING SNOW RATIOS AND SPOTTY HEAVIER RATES ON WEDNESDAY...IT COULD BALANCE OUT TO SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO AN INCH OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 had a couple seriously loud cracks of thunder around 3 am last night was surprised for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 I like these cold pool setups for local overperformance, but marginal surface temps makes this one more tricky. Gotta get good rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Has always been a DAB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 RGEM still looks pretty bullish around Chicagoland tonight/tomorrow morning, relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 .9" @ ORD final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 The timing for snow isn't bad around here. Between 6-10am. Temps 30-32° on the RGEM. 1.3" for the call here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 The timing for snow isn't bad around here. Between 6-10am. Temps 30-32° on the RGEM. 1.3" for the call here. RGEM looks a little cooler with temps than the other models. Unlike the Nov 20-21 storm, flow will be offshore this time for areas near the lake in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 snow totals up to 4PM CST on December 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Models have been hinting at another mesoscale band of snow developing tomorrow evening (especially along the OH/MI border through Northern OH). Something else to keep an eye on I guess. Ultimately, it's going to depend on how fast the closed low opens up and how far north it tracks wen it comes to the location/intensity. EDIT: 18z RGEM sets the band right over Detroit (0.25"+ QPF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Had a few cold sprinkles on the drive home from work a little while ago. If we can get some precip to move through this evening it should be cold enough for some wet snow by then. Maybe a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Humongous flakes (my favorite type of snow) were falling heavily in Sioux Falls... https://twitter.com/NWSSiouxFalls/status/671375051925549056 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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