Hoosier Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Western closed low will eject eastward with a seasonably deep surface low. Most of the snow looks to be in the northwestern area of the subforum though perhaps some light amounts (or at least flurries) farther southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 27, 2015 Share Posted November 27, 2015 Obviously some differences between the models at this point, but they have the same general idea. The Euro brings the low almost over the Twin Cities, but 850 temps stay below 0C. Also of note is the fact that the low doesn't seem to move very fast. Could be a semi long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Looks like some very cold air gets wrapped in (on euro)...this thing will be all snow here...keeping my eye on this one. GFS shows plenty of precip for some good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 GFS definitely came in farther southeast, compared to the 18z. Congrats to DLL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 If last storm set up a trend, expect the jackpot to eventually end up in West Illinois, I wouldn't mind another inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 06z GFS ticked slightly to the NW. Let the games begin as the NAM is within range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Euro has been holding steady with taking the surface low right over the Twin Cities. GFS continues to be east but recent runs have nudged westward. Looking more and more like a front end thump then dry slot for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 First Winter Storm Watch of the season for MSP... MNZ054>070-073>077-082>085-091>093-290600- /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0002.151130T1200Z-151202T0000Z/LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...HASTINGS...REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT...ST. JAMES...MANKATO...WASECA...OWATONNA...FAIRMONT...BLUE EARTH...ALBERT LEA329 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGHTUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNINGTHROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.* SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAYAFTERNOON.* SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE.* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.* THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE ON MONDAY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 The first Watch for MSP since the winter of 13-14 if I'm not mistaken. I don't think we had any watches last winter. At least not in St. Paul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 The first Watch for MSP since the winter of 13-14 if I'm not mistaken. I don't think we had any watches last winter. At least not in St. Paul. I think the whole metro had a watch for that bust in early/mid November 2014... it turned into a warning for something like 10-14 inches but for pretty much everywhere south of 694 it ended up being about 3 inches of slop. Meanwhile the far north metro and north from there was pound town. I think that was the only watch for 2014-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 I think the whole metro had a watch for that bust in early/mid November 2014... it turned into a warning for something like 10-14 inches but for pretty much everywhere south of 694 it ended up being about 3 inches of slop. Meanwhile the far north metro and north from there was pound town. I think that was the only watch for 2014-15. Yep, that's right. I think I subconsciously blocked that storm from my memory. What a bust that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 18z GFS takes the low roughly from KC to Des Moines to Rochester. Chuckin' em deep on the snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2015 Author Share Posted November 28, 2015 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Congrats to the Iowa folks who got last storm and now this one, I bet they are ecstatic. Nice gfs_asnow_ncus_17.png Beautiful Winter Storm, if it was more windy we'd have a nice blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Nice I think the 18z GFS has about 7" for the Twin Cities. I think the models are starting to get in agreement on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 28, 2015 Share Posted November 28, 2015 Looking like a nice swath with this one. Should see a nice swirling area of snow showers outside of the main area of impact on Tuesday for some nice mood flake action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 0z 12k NAM came in west of the 18z with the heaviest band. Almost all of MN gets in on the fun in the 0z GFS. South Twin Cities jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 RGEM dumping pretty good over northern IA and southern MN by late Monday. Looks like it's gonna really slam MSP and central MN beyond that. Gonna be interesting to see where that rain/snow line sets up, as it looks like there will be a steep drop off in amounts east of where it lays. Looks like I-35 in IA will be the battleground there, with Rochester and Red Wing being close to it further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 GEM coming in with good snowfall for most of eastern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 The GFS still seems to be on it own...but overall guidance focuses the heaviest snows over NW IA and SW MN during the daylight hours, before the band pushes northeastward as our areas of low pressure become vertically stacked. For the Twin Cities, I still think most of the snow falls late Monday afternoon and Monday evening, before the mid-level dry slot arrives overnight. GFS continues to advertise another band of snow developing as moisture wraps around the low, but it doesn't really have much support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 12z GFS has this. Has the most snow to the southwest as well. I'd feel pretty good about 4-6" in the Twin Cities, especially if you're in the southern burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 How long has it been since MSP airport had more than 4.5" of snow with a single storm event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted November 29, 2015 Share Posted November 29, 2015 How long has it been since MSP airport had more than 4.5" of snow with a single storm event? A storm April 3-4, 2014 dropped about 6.5 inches at MSP. The most in any one storm all of last winter was only about 4.5 inches I think. Snow depth never exceeded 6 inches, too, which is pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 0z 4k NAM. Several models keeping the mixed precip east of the TC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 RGEM has that bullseye just south of the Twin Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 RGEM has that bullseye just south of the Twin Cities. Looks like a me Houghton, MI north is going to miss out. This winter we are probably going to end up with less snow than every where around us due to lack of sustain Arctic air to create Lake Effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 Has to be a tough decision for MPX, but I'm thinking they upgrade Sterns, Wright, Hennepin, Carver and Scott Counties to a warning with the remaining counties placed in an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 And an advisory for the entire metro... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 318 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT SNOW LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES... REACHING WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL... CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA... STARTING THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... THEN SPREADING TO THE NORTH AND EAST... AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... MAKING FOR A LONG DURATION EVENT. A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR OVER THAT TIME PERIOD. TOTAL SNOWFALL IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA... WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GLENWOOD TO LITCHFIELD TO FARIBAULT TO ALBERT LEA. FOR CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE TWO DAYS. ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOTALS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. FOR THESE AREAS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. MNZ044-045-052-053-060>063-069-070-302100- /O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0002.151130T1200Z-151202T0600Z/ /O.EXA.KMPX.WW.Y.0017.151130T1200Z-151202T0600Z/ MILLE LACS-KANABEC-ISANTI-CHISAGO-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY- WASHINGTON-SCOTT-DAKOTA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PRINCETON...MORA...CAMBRIDGE... CENTER CITY...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER... SHAKOPEE...HASTINGS 318 AM CST MON NOV 30 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * SNOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY... AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. A FEW BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED... AND A MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR AT TIMES. * THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. * LOOK FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. * TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED... WITH A GLAZE OF ICE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. * PLAN ON DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS... PARTICULARLY DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE. THE EASTERN TWIN CITIES METRO COULD EXPERIENCE SLICK CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE TODAY DUE TO A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1. $$ Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 This first wave that's going thru right now has been dropping some impressive snow so far. Visibilities down to around a 1/4mi at times here. Haven't measured yet but it looks like at least an inch down already with another area of heavy returns coming in from the east. Edit: 3.25" and still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 30, 2015 Share Posted November 30, 2015 This first wave that's going thru right now has been dropping some impressive snow so far. Visibilities down to around a 1/4mi at times here. Haven't measured yet but it looks like at least an inch down already with another area of heavy returns coming in from the east. Edit: 3.25" and still snowing. Very nice...hope you rack up some good totals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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