Winter 2015-16

[tnweathernut]

SO MANY variables, indices and teleconnections to consider.   When I really ponder the complexity of it, I no longer wonder why man-made computer models do so poorly at forecasting, but instead, begin to marvel we could create any kind of computer program to forecast even a few days in advance, much less several weeks.   

Nice post JayCee, and I agree on the shout out to CG for the overview.  I have been super busy the last couple of days and after skimming the OP discussions on the various forums I am beginning to wonder about the mental condition of many of the posters in other subforums....lol.

 

Regarding the bolded, I can't agree more.  I remember past patterns that seemed to have EVERYTHING lined up that didn't deliver. Some of it was just plain bad luck, but several times I remember there being talk (after the fact) about a little known variable likely being the main culprit (whether true or not).  

 

The fact is we live in the south and as such we see limited amounts of snow.  It makes us really appreciate situations like you have mentioned (snow on top of existing snow). Its scarcity gives each instance where we actually score a special feeling.

 

I still see a LOT of potential in how the models appear to be lining up, but it would be nice to see evidence of the ability to score with such a good look.  I thought we'd be seeing fantasy solutions galore by this point and the fact we aren't gives me pause, even in light of my high level of optimism....

[nrgjeff]

I am still cautiously optimistic next week despite already punting this weekend 2 days ago. Tonight system acts like a warm front; then, weekend too much energy north, promoting temp profile killing south winds up to 700 mb. Perhaps I failed to explain my reasoning in my original punt. 850 will get there too late and even 700 below 0C is too warm for the right dendrite growth. West Kentucky may change late; Plateau and Mountains should end snow showers; Valley stay patient.

 

Next week the cold background state still looks good although nothing is screaming snow on models. Cold is now faster Sunday and Tuesday night/Wednesday cold reinforcement arrives. Tue/Wed front may include snow showers for the Plateau and Mountains. At the same time a far southern stream perturbation is shown buried deep over the open Gulf of Mexico. One can watch/hope for it becoming a stealth system for the Valley, but that would be a huge change even 5 days out.

 

January 16 weekend includes waves in both streams; models show Ohio valley Gulf Coast, but either could change. Snow wish-cast requires probably 2/3: a stronger southern stream, a weaker northern steam, and a stronger surface high north. Favorable timing changes of the waves could accomplish all 3 goals. Normally I do not speculate about wish-casts, especially 10 days out, but this is a favorable background weather pattern. Agree with Carver there.

 

Watched the Cold Video finally. Speaker knows his stuff. Video goes way beyond blocking, and touches on numerous important forecasting techniques. Even if one is not as bullish, the video is a tool box to remember. For this forecast he is looking for El Nino to behave more west-based as Tropical Pacific Convection TPC shifts west. So far TPC has been east-based in our east-based Nino. I believe TPC will remain east-based. El Nino may have peaked, and the media may be late to the official El Nino Advisory, but it is still very strong and very east-based. Arctic troposphere is disrupted right now but remember the fundamentals. Stratospheric vortex is intact and we have a +2.5 super El Nino in progress.

 

I look for the strong east-based El Nino to negate some of the blocking and AO/NAO influences. Note also temps across inland Alaska and northern Canada are -10 to -20 with -30 at the worst. For a really cold outcome I'd like to see the source region -40 to -50. At the coast Anchorage low temps have been warmer than those on the Plateau for all of 2016!

 

No cold air source in 1998 is how strong El Nino overcame blocking. However I lean toward the slightly colder 1983. Whole winter I'm looking for a 1983 hybrid, still slightly mild overall after the very warm Nov-Dec. Balance of winter I'm forecasting mainly normal and below normal temps. The pattern has changed and the flamethrower is probably over.

 

John nailed the timing early January vs mid-late Jan. He got it with sound reasoning. Also these warm start winters models may be too early on the cold change. When it finally does flip, it can rush faster than the models. Here we are cold starting right at the New Year.

 

I'm looking for some cold weeks, but not necessarily all in a row, for two reasons. Professionally I was going slightly mild winter, not warm winter. November and December flamethrower drove up the average temp; but, even strong El Nino should get colder late for the South. Personally, like most here, I want to see some snow. Balance of winter should be more favorable, even if that means February.

[JayCee]

Oh, to have something like this riding up through southern GA into North Carolina while this cold air is around.!!

And of course, I would want it to have originated somewhere off the coast of southeast Texas--as too include all the TN Valley in on the fun.

 

Note:  this bad boy is currently off the southeast coast.  Quite the wound up storm. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

12z...since I have a wxbell account for the winter months, thought I would share.  Feel free to add information or disagree.  I have pretty thick skin. 

 

GFS goes cold and locks it in.  But is it right? Some nice chances per that model between d10-16.  To paraphrase Mr. Bob...When does it end well when talking about a specific event on the GFS in LR?  But that is how I envision the pattern, even w/ the trough backing a bit west which actually doesn't hurt us.  Maybe it doesn't back but just elongates.

 

Dr. No...lives up to its name.  The PNA ridge hooks up w/ the west based NAO(which by the way is just raging).  Ridging over the top appears to lock the cold in eastern Siberia.  Looks like the PNA ridge gets displaced a bit eastward.  That to me is a big feature to watch.  If you have worries of a 1998 repeat...might want to steer clear of this run.  Honestly, it just looks a bit off and has for a couple of days.  But hey, it isn't the best model on the planet because it has a few off days.  Chances are better than not that it will be correct.

 

GEM...Clipper at 132.  Be careful, models notoriously place those too far south.  But hey, maybe we can steal a few inches across the northern length of the forum area. During the 80s w/ periods of strong blocking I remember loads of clippers that over performed.   That feature is missing in the Euro and it should be there.  Fits the pattern.  Also, the 16-18th time frame seems to come back into play w/ a Miller B look.

 

UKMET...Maintains the block in place..

 

GEFS(quickly)...cold SE and mid-section.  Diminishing PNA followed by a rebuilding of the PNA. 

 

12z summary not counting EPS(will edit if I have time later or somebody else can jump in)...Significant block from yesterday's Euro is still there and supported by other models.  But as WxSouth put in their write-up, is the position of the -NAO correct?  Also, Jax mentioned the other day that the PNA looked weak in the long term.  Not sure if it is weak but its position is not ideal IMO either.  The teleconnections are just about perfect.  The actual placement of the block is what I want to see now.  Does the western ridge connect to the NAO?  Is the Euro guilty of smoothing out severe cold?  Is the GFS up to its usual cold bias?  If I had to say which model I favor at 12z, I would say the GFS looks like I would imagine a block should look at that magnitude.  But I am not sure I would take it to the dance.  Looking at the overall picture w/ out the models...One would expect repeated cold shots w/ a stubborn block at high latitudes that might last for for another 30+ days.  Throw in a record Nino.  At some point winter should return to the East.

[Carvers Gap]

I am still cautiously optimistic next week despite already punting this weekend 2 days ago. Tonight system acts like a warm front; then, weekend too much energy north, promoting temp profile killing south winds up to 700 mb. Perhaps I failed to explain my reasoning in my original punt. 850 will get there too late and even 700 below 0C is too warm for the right dendrite growth. West Kentucky may change late; Plateau and Mountains should end snow showers; Valley stay patient.

 

Next week the cold background state still looks good although nothing is screaming snow on models. Cold is now faster Sunday and Tuesday night/Wednesday cold reinforcement arrives. Tue/Wed front may include snow showers for the Plateau and Mountains. At the same time a far southern stream perturbation is shown buried deep over the open Gulf of Mexico. One can watch/hope for it becoming a stealth system for the Valley, but that would be a huge change even 5 days out.

 

January 16 weekend includes waves in both streams; models show Ohio valley Gulf Coast, but either could change. Snow wish-cast requires probably 2/3: a stronger southern stream, a weaker northern steam, and a stronger surface high north. Favorable timing changes of the waves could accomplish all 3 goals. Normally I do not speculate about wish-casts, especially 10 days out, but this is a favorable background weather pattern. Agree with Carver there.

 

Watched the Cold Video finally. Speaker knows his stuff. Video goes way beyond blocking, and touches on numerous important forecasting techniques. Even if one is not as bullish, the video is a tool box to remember. For this forecast he is looking for El Nino to behave more west-based as Tropical Pacific Convection TPC shifts west. So far TPC has been east-based in our east-based Nino. I believe TPC will remain east-based. El Nino may have peaked, and the media may be late to the official El Nino Advisory, but it is still very strong and very east-based. Arctic troposphere is disrupted right now but remember the fundamentals. Stratospheric vortex is intact and we have a +2.5 super El Nino in progress.

 

I look for the strong east-based El Nino to negate some of the blocking and AO/NAO influences. Note also temps across inland Alaska and northern Canada are -10 to -20 with -30 at the worst. For a really cold outcome I'd like to see the source region -40 to -50. At the coast Anchorage low temps have been warmer than those on the Plateau for all of 2016!

 

No cold air source in 1998 is how strong El Nino overcame blocking. However I lean toward the slightly colder 1983. Whole winter I'm looking for a 1983 hybrid, still slightly mild overall after the very warm Nov-Dec. Balance of winter I'm forecasting mainly normal and below normal temps, The pattern has changed and the flamethrower is probably over.

 

John nailed the timing early January vs mid-late Jan. He got it with sound reasoning. Also these warm start winters models may be too early on the cold change. When it finally does flip, it can rush faster than the models. Here we are cold starting right at the New Year.

 

I'm looking for some cold weeks, not necessarily all in a row, for two reasons. Professionally I was going slightly mild winter, not warm winter. November and December flamethrower drove up the average temp; but, even strong El Nino should get colder late for the South. Personally, like most here, I want to see some snow. Balance of winter should be more favorable, even if that means February.

Jeff, good call on the weekend system and nice write-up.  Several good nuggets.  You know, I am less confident about next week.  Not sure if it is that the southern jet is just getting hammered by the block or maybe the southern jet is just "relaxing"(sorry, not sure of the wx term for that...makes it sound like it is at the beach).  Honestly, I would expect to see the southern stream fighting back by sending systems into the southern edge of the block via split flow...somewhere along a line from TX to VA.  Not seeing it at the moment.  Think the models are just playing catch-up or is something else driving this?  Any thoughts are welcome. 

[Stormcatt]

12z...since I have a wxbell account for the winter months, thought I would share. Feel free to add information or disagree. I have pretty thick skin.

GFS goes cold and locks it in. But is it right? Some nice chances per that model between d10-16. To paraphrase Mr. Bob...When does it end well when talking about a specific event on the GFS in LR? But that is how I envision the pattern, even w/ the trough backing a bit west which actually doesn't hurt us. Maybe it doesn't back but just elongates.

Dr. No...lives up to its name. The PNA ridge hooks up w/ the west based NAO(which by the way is just raging). Ridging over the top appears to lock the cold in eastern Siberia. Looks like the PNA ridge gets displaced a bit eastward. That to me is a big feature to watch. If you have worries of a 1998 repeat...might want to steer clear of this run. Honestly, it just looks a bit off and has for a couple of days. But hey, it isn't the best model on the planet because it has a few off days. Chances are better than not that it will be correct.

GEM...Clipper at 132. Be careful, models notoriously place those too far south. But hey, maybe we can steal a few inches across the northern length of the forum area. During the 80s w/ periods of strong blocking I remember loads of clippers that over performed. That feature is missing in the Euro and it should be there. Fits the pattern. Also, the 16-18th time frame seems to come back into play w/ a Miller B look.

UKMET...Maintains the block in place..

GEFS(quickly)...cold SE and mid-section. Diminishing PNA followed by a rebuilding of the PNA.

12z summary not counting EPS(will edit if I have time later or somebody else can jump in)...Significant block from yesterday's Euro is still there and supported by other models. But as WxSouth put in their write-up, is the position of the -NAO correct? Also, Jax mentioned the other day that the PNA looked weak in the long term. Not sure if it is weak but its position is not ideal IMO either. The teleconnections are just about perfect. The actual placement of the block is what I want to see now. Does the western ridge connect to the NAO? Is the Euro guilty of smoothing out severe cold? Is the GFS up to its usual cold bias? If I had to say which model I favor at 12z, I would say the GFS looks like I would imagine a block should look at that magnitude. But I am not sure I would take it to the dance. Looking at the overall picture w/ out the models...One would expect repeated cold shots w/ a stubborn block at high latitudes that might last for for another 30+ days. Throw in a record Nino. At some point winter should return to the East.

What do you mean is the position correct ?

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[tnweathernut]

I don't think it's been mentioned, but just about everything looks better on the 12z gefs.  Ridge placement out west, healthy southern stream, beautiful -NAO, and the PV almost perfectly placed just south of the block for those across TN.  In a nutshell it shows potential system after system throughout its 384 hour run, beginning around 180.  Yes, I know it's long range, but I think it paints the possibilities very well.

[JayCee]

Jeff, good call on the weekend system and nice write-up.  Several good nuggets.  You know, I am less confident about next week.  Not sure if it is that the southern jet is just getting hammered by the block or maybe the southern jet is just "relaxing"(sorry, not sure of the wx term for that...makes it sound like it is at the beach).  Honestly, I would expect to see the southern stream fighting back by sending systems into the southern edge of the block via split flow...somewhere along a line from TX to VA.  Not seeing it at the moment.  Think the models are just playing catch-up or is something else driving this?  Any thoughts are welcome. 

It does seem a bit odd that after the wet December and the plentiful moisture and storms over our area, that the southern jet "relaxes" so much now that we have a -AO and cold air intruding.

 

 The 6-10 day outlook shows dryness (or at least below normal precip) in a long corridor across the middle of the U.S. and the moisture suppressed south.  Perhaps, its just the Big Man giving the flooded areas a break after record rains. 

 

[Silas Lang]

Good questions:

 

First, the streamer of moisture appears to be ahead of a northern stream system (front). It is not exactly what I'm looking for, esp if the northerner drags the 850 line north. Could also be post-frontal snow showers. Southern stream system is shown buried to our south on a few models at close to the same time. I would like that one, or another like it, to come out a little farther north. The moisture sought would come from it and look more like a precip shield from the south, hopefully with no boundary layer or 850 trouble. Have not seen anything like that beyond an isolated model run, but it is still a week away.

 

Yes you remember a couple of East Tenn snow gems. Actually that was an inverted trough beyond just a moisture miscue. Apps may have a hand in the trough, adding a little cyclonic turn to the east wind aloft. Winds crossing mountain ranges and lee troughs (or inverted lee) are a whole other discussion. However I would not directly credit the Apps, as they can also create downslope (bad) with an ESE wind. It is the trough enhancing snow, a second derivative of the mountains, but not the mountains directly doing so that wind direction. Also even without mountains one can see inverted troughs, like in the flat Plains or Midwest. Basically it is an inverted extension of the main low, and, it can be a big help for snow. Models might miss the smaller scale feature, esp out a few days. Hi-res may pick it up better inside a couple days.

 

Regarding next post below: Yup ATL 2014 Snowmaggedon was an inverted trough, and it did the same thing to Chatty 1" but with such cold ground. Also last year 2015 when Chattanooga crushed the rest of the Valley we thanked an inverted trough. Note 2014 Huntsville-Chatty snow bomb was a vigorous coma head behind rain. I think the 2011 big snow was also helped by an inverted trough. 2015, 2014 and 2011 inverted troughs were cold and all snow baby!

Thanks for the explanation Jeff! Happy to know I am at least looking in the right vicinity for potential. I appreciate the insight and the insight of everyone else on this board as well. I still have a lot to learn, but posts like this (and many others) are very helpful for a weather noob such as myself. Keep'em coming!

[Carvers Gap]

What do you mean is the position correct ?

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Where geographically does the -NAO set up shop? How far west does it reach? Over the Davis Straits or even into HB?

[JayCee]

PER MRX:

 

 

SATURDAY NIGHT THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND USHERS IN MORE COLD TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE EARLY IN THE LOWER 40S THEN FALL
DURING THE DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS FIRST IN THE MOUNTAINS THEN
POSSIBLY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SUNSET. ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY
BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN NW FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND BELOW FREEZING IN THE
MORNINGS NEXT WEEK.

 

[Daniel Boone]

What do you mean is the position correct ?

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Actually, a clipper during a strong -nao normally tracks further south than they otherwise do. The great strong -nao winters had this happen.

[Carvers Gap]

It does seem a bit odd that after the wet December and the plentiful moisture and storms over our area, that the southern jet "relaxes" so much now that we have a -AO and cold air intruding.

 

 The 6-10 day outlook shows dryness (or at least below normal precip) in a long corridor across the middle of the U.S. and the moisture suppressed south.  Perhaps, its just the Big Man giving the flooded areas a break after record rains. 

 

Yeah, the Mississippi needs a break. Those outlooks are always pretty middle of the road, but I am not sure I would disagree with them. Would fit a suppressed pattern with strong blocking. Our mets I am guessing are probably specialists in qpf amounts in the LR because of the nature of their job. They might be able to add a bit more to that explanation. But would have to think that is not a long term trend.

[Carvers Gap]

Actually, a clipper during a strong -nao normally tracks further south than they otherwise do. The great strong -nao winters had this happen.

Yes, good catch. I did not clarify that well enough earlier. 84-85 was awesome for clippers. Not sure of the blocking state, but we seemed to score with every one in J-F.

[tnweathernut]

GEFS(quickly)...cold SE and mid-section.  Diminishing PNA followed by a rebuilding of the PNA. 

 

 

Just to add to this, the GEFS snowfall mean total over the coming 16 days is the most robust I have seen to this point.  Doesn't meant it's right, but i think it also points to the fact we will at least have potential in the coming couple of weeks.

 

[ShawnEastTN]

18Z GFS still shows a mega behemoth around the 16th-19th.  980 mbar range from Mississippi to NC while inland, would be one heck of a storm.  Of course I have a hard time buying that strength this far out but man if it is that strong even if it takes a track not favorable for major snow for us it would still be one heck of a storm.  The pressure gradient is extreme for our neck of the woods, more inline with a nor'easter that is off the coast of Maine.

[1234snow]

18z GFS has a bomb big daddy just after 200 hours. It would be a rain to snow scenario.

[Stovepipe]

18z GFS has a bomb big daddy just after 200 hours. It would be a rain to snow scenario.

 

GEFS has been showing potential for this time period for several days now, it's nice to see some action on the OP a week out.  Now we just need to see something tangible on the Euro.  EPS has been a bit lackluster the past couple of days.  Shirley we can squeeze at least a small event or two out of this awesome pattern that is progged.

[jaxjagman]

Wh's got the weeklies ?My maps are only pulling in the 2'm and surface but it sure looks cold

[Stovepipe]

Wh's got the weeklies ?My maps are only pulling in the 2'm and surface but it sure looks cold

 

Looks cold but dry throughout the entire run.  The detailed maps aren't ready yet but the generalized is cold and dry.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks cold but dry throughout the entire run.  The detailed maps aren't ready yet but the generalized is cold and dry.

That would be a positive change as last week they were generally warm, correct?

[jaxjagman]

Looks cold but dry throughout the entire run.  The detailed maps aren't ready yet but the generalized is cold and dry.

Thanks,maybe mine's doing the same.Usually come in the same time

[jaxjagman]

That would be a positive change as last week they were generally warm, correct?

2M's look the coldest i've seen yet

[tnweathernut]

GEFS has been showing potential for this time period for several days now, it's nice to see some action on the OP a week out. Now we just need to see something tangible on the Euro. EPS has been a bit lackluster the past couple of days. Shirley we can squeeze at least a small event or two out of this awesome pattern that is progged.

EPS parallel looks fairly close to the 18z GFS op

[Daniel Boone]

Looks cold but dry throughout the entire run.  The detailed maps aren't ready yet but the generalized is cold and dry.

Almost as if there's no stj being picked up by it! Could be suggesting extreme suppression of it.

[Vol Man]

Hey guys...good to see all of the TN Valley folks getting ready for winter...looks like things may be getting interesting soon? WCYB is a little optimistic even for this Sunday...

 

[jaxjagman]

Still missing plots but at least my 850's came in on the weeklies but not all of the hrs.But by far it was the coldest weeklies this winter that i could tell.Not wall to wall cold but this is the SE so you shouldnt expect that anyways.:)But over all in an enso year i have no complaints,it could look way worse than it does..Maybe someone that has more can share with us

[jaxjagman]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 AM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN GULF COAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN TN / NRN MS / NWRN AL...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST
   SATURDAY MORNING TO EARLY EVENING...PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE
   VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX TOWARDS THE
   CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS WILL OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF
   A NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
   INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. DEEP CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED FROM THE
   MID-SOUTH TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH A SECONDARY LOW POSSIBLY
   FORMING ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE
   CAROLINAS TO MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE E AND
   SHOULD REACH PARTS OF THE S ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z/SUN.

   ...ERN CAROLINAS...
   LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL STRENGTHEN SAT NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEPENING
   MIDWEST CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE ADVECTION OF LOWER 60S SURFACE
   DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN. AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
   FALLS OVERSPREAD THIS PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR...SCATTERED
   CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DESPITE MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
   ACCELERATING COLD FRONT. TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
   MOIST ADIABATIC AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. BUT ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SUPERCELLS WITH
   TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND AS THE MAIN HAZARDS. PORTIONS OF THIS
   REGION APPEAR MOST PROBABLE FOR AN UPGRADE TO CAT 2 SEVERE RISK IN
   LATER OUTLOOKS.

   ...WRN TN...NRN MS...NWRN AL...
   NEAR A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL
   JET ALONG THE WRN GULF COAST...A CONFINED AREA OF LOW-TOPPED
   SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS ON SAT
   AFTERNOON. ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WHERE SOME
   DIABATIC HEATING CAN OCCUR...APPROACH OF -24 TO -28 DEG C 500-MB
   TEMPERATURES ATOP 50-55 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD SUPPORT A
   CORRIDOR OF WEAK BUOYANCY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
   SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD BUT A RISK
   EXISTS FOR TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND AS WELL.

   ...ERN GULF COAST...
   A CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SAT ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF
   COAST/N-CNTRL GULF REGION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER WITH THE
   INLAND EXTENT AND AMPLITUDE OF WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE FROM THE NERN
   GULF. GIVEN MODEST TO POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH ERN
   EXTENT...DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LARGELY CONTINGENT ON
   THE DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR MOISTURE. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE ONLY
   DELINEATED MARGINAL SEVERE RISK PROBABILITIES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
   GULF COAST AREA WHERE WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY IS MOST LIKELY TO
   DEVELOP. WITH VEERED AND MORE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WINDS RELATIVE TO
   FARTHER N...THE PRIMARY HAZARD SHOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS BUT
   A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

[Mr Bob]

I continue to look at the model suite and see no impressive cold air anywhere...until that changes it is going to be difficult to get a major snow storm in our area....higher elevations should get some but other than a few fringe events, we are going to struggle. Look back at 2010 when we had such a deeply negative AO and we pretty much stayed below 32 degrees for over a week. We are struggling to get down to the low 20s in most areas next week. The trouble when El Nino goes over the top....

[Carvers Gap]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1252 AM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN TN / NRN MS / NWRN AL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST

SATURDAY MORNING TO EARLY EVENING...PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE

VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX TOWARDS THE

CNTRL APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS WILL OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF

A NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. DEEP CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED FROM THE

MID-SOUTH TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH A SECONDARY LOW POSSIBLY

FORMING ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE

CAROLINAS TO MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE E AND

SHOULD REACH PARTS OF THE S ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z/SUN.

...ERN CAROLINAS...

LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL STRENGTHEN SAT NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEEPENING

MIDWEST CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE ADVECTION OF LOWER 60S SURFACE

DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN. AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT

FALLS OVERSPREAD THIS PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR...SCATTERED

CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP DESPITE MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE

ACCELERATING COLD FRONT. TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN

MOIST ADIABATIC AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. BUT ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL

HODOGRAPHS SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SUPERCELLS WITH

TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND AS THE MAIN HAZARDS. PORTIONS OF THIS

REGION APPEAR MOST PROBABLE FOR AN UPGRADE TO CAT 2 SEVERE RISK IN

LATER OUTLOOKS.

...WRN TN...NRN MS...NWRN AL...

NEAR A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL

JET ALONG THE WRN GULF COAST...A CONFINED AREA OF LOW-TOPPED

SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS ON SAT

AFTERNOON. ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WHERE SOME

DIABATIC HEATING CAN OCCUR...APPROACH OF -24 TO -28 DEG C 500-MB

TEMPERATURES ATOP 50-55 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD SUPPORT A

CORRIDOR OF WEAK BUOYANCY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A

SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD BUT A RISK

EXISTS FOR TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND AS WELL.

...ERN GULF COAST...

A CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SAT ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF

COAST/N-CNTRL GULF REGION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER WITH THE

INLAND EXTENT AND AMPLITUDE OF WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE FROM THE NERN

GULF. GIVEN MODEST TO POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH ERN

EXTENT...DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LARGELY CONTINGENT ON

THE DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR MOISTURE. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE ONLY

DELINEATED MARGINAL SEVERE RISK PROBABILITIES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE

GULF COAST AREA WHERE WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY IS MOST LIKELY TO

DEVELOP. WITH VEERED AND MORE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WINDS RELATIVE TO

FARTHER N...THE PRIMARY HAZARD SHOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS BUT

A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

Marginal risk of severe wx along with a slight chance of snow shortly after menioned at both Memphis and Nashville. I also noticed BMX mentioned a slight risk in your southwest counties. Then maybe some light snow showers Sunday. What a pattern! Hopefully the severe wx does not happen.