Winter 2015-16

[Carvers Gap]

We may need a short range thread soon. I think Stove made one of those last year. 12z GFS seems to represent the teleconnection trends of the past week or so. The storm is still there around the 11th. The EPS has had it for a few days. Still, tought to talk specifics eleven days from the event. So, it would seem to be wise to say that the pattern is showing some positive signs after Jan 10th. Sutherland's post from yesterday appears to be prophetic. Enjoy the bowls. Many forum favorites in action.

[Carvers Gap]

Came across this article yesterday. This storm may have a hand in changing the upcoming pattern. It may also be wrecking havoc on global wx models...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/12/30/freak-storm-has-pushed-north-pole-to-freezing-point-50-degrees-above-normal/

[tnweathernut]

If you want to see a textbook winter 500mb chart, look no further.  If anything, Tennesseans would have to worry about being too far north with a suppressed southern jet.

 

[1234snow]

The 12z GFS looked pretty solid to me from 180 hours to 240 hours. The first storm is a little warm but sets the stage good for the next storm. The run didn't show much for the second storm/wave but I think the potential is really there based on the 500mb maps. Curious to see what the Euro shows.

Joe B showed the 6z CFS this morning and it has widespread below normal temps for the month of January and into the start of February. Nothing extreme is being shown but solid 1-3 degree below normal temps is looking increasingly likely.

[weathertree4u]

If you want to see a textbook winter 500mb chart, look no further.  If anything, Tennesseans would have to worry about being too far north with a suppressed southern jet.

 

Winter 500mb northern hemisphere on 12312015 for hr 360.png

That has happened in recent years, seems like it was 9/10 or 10/11 that Birmingham, Atlanta, Chattanooga got several inches more than Memphis, Nashville or Knoxville.

[John1122]

That has happened in recent years, seems like it was 9/10 or 10/11 that Birmingham, Atlanta, Chattanooga got several inches more than Memphis, Nashville or Knoxville.

 

Knoxville did pretty well in 10-11 but 09-10 was inexplicably bad with the set up that happened. The storm that thumped Chattanooga that year hit with a big front end snow thump in the Southern areas but it arrived later in Knox and other areas and they had major mixing issues. I was lucky enough to be far enough north to get all snow and had 13 inches. 

 

To me 09-10 is the best winter of my life. I approached 50 inches of snow and snow was  coming every few days. It wasn't ever mega cold it but it was always just cold enough for snow to fall and stick around.

[franklin NCwx]

Weenie eps run!

[jaxjagman]

Progressive pattern..But i'm still seeing some t-storms ahead of the cold,probably be days before everything gets sorted out.BUT if today's Euro is right we will see a spike in the 700-500 mb lapse rates 7 into 8C with the showalter heading into a -5,with a SBCape 500,that's nuts for winter.It's going to interesting to see how everything finally gets resolved.Today's AO with ensemble members like Carver mentioned above looks now even colder than before  for the period coming up

 

Should be an active period.On Joe Renkens bearing seas blog give or take from the time stamp they show a strong cutter around the 14-16th time frame

 

 

If it's right it makes since with the -NAO going +.should be a cutter with cold air in place

 

 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Progressive pattern..But i'm still seeing some t-storms ahead of the cold,probably be days before everything gets sorted out.BUT if today's Euro is right we will see a spike in the 700-500 mb lapse rates 7 into 8C with the showalter heading into a -5,with a SBCape 500,that's nuts for winter.It's going to interesting to see how everything finally gets resolved.Today's AO with ensemble members like Carver mentioned above looks now even colder than before for the period coming upNumerical Model Prediction Tropical Tidbits.png

Should be an active period.On Joe Renkens bearing seas blog give or take from the time stamp they show a strong cutter around the 14-16th time frame

The Bering Sea Rule BSR H5 Maps.png

If it's right it makes since with the -NAO going +.should be a cutter with cold air in place

Eric Webb webberweather Twitter.png

Maybe some thunder several days before the 11th, right? But not the DT storm....

[Stovepipe]

Weenie eps run!

 

For me, it's officially winter when we start seeing Weenie Run posts lol.  Thanks Franklin!

 

:guitar:

[jaxjagman]

Maybe some thunder several days before the 11th, right? But not the DT storm....

Yes.this is what i'm seeing now

[Carvers Gap]

Weenie eps run!

  

For me, it's officially winter when we start seeing Weenie Run posts lol.  Thanks Franklin!

 

:guitar:

Feel free to share...:-) The time frame around the 11th still looks good and then onward...A cold weekend ahead, passing warmth, and then it appears some things to track. Pattern should be increasingly blocky, cold, and wintery.

[jaxjagman]

  

Feel free to share...:-) The time frame around the 11th still looks good and then onward...A cold weekend ahead, passing warmth, and then it appears some things to track. Pattern should be increasingly blocky, cold, and wintery.

Starting to wonder how cold it will actually get.Without a Enso year these indices would more than likely  hint to be extremely cold

[Carvers Gap]

Starting to wonder how cold it will actually get.Without a Enso year these indices would more than likely hint to be extremely cold

To steal a line from WxSouth...In some cases, just cold enough. The possibility is indeed out there for an Arctic outbreak after a big coastal low. I doubt we see those big Arctic highs charging down the Plains like last winter. But I will take normal January cold in a Nino pattern any day. The indices seem to indicate an increasingly blocky pattern taking hold prior to mid month. It is fair to say, "How cold?" I don't know. Clouds could keep lows warmer while daytime highs are cooler. Climo usually wins. But what is climo this year? We have a highly unusual Kara block being shown. To steal a line from either the NE or MA board, December seemed to have the worst of Nina and Nino patterns. WxSouth likes to talk about the other shoe dropping when speaking of nature. In other words, nature may balance one extreme with another. I highly doubt we reverse December's warmth, but if we can go normal on temps for the next two months(or even slightly above) along with a strong southern branch...I think we will have several events to track and snow/ice events for many of us. I again am very interested in the time frame where the NAO is forecast to go negative(if it indeed does).

[Silas Lang]

To steal a line from WxSouth...In some cases, just cold enough. The possibility is indeed out there for an Arctic outbreak after a big coastal low. I doubt we see those big Arctic highs charging down the Plains like last winter. But I will take normal January cold in a Nino pattern any day. The indices seem to indicate an increasingly blocky pattern taking hold prior to mid month. It is fair to say, "How cold?" I don't know. Clouds could keep lows warmer while daytime highs are cooler. Climo usually wins. But what is climo this year? We have a highly unusual Kara block being shown. To steal a line from eithe the NE or MA board, December seemed to have the worst of Nina and Nino patterns. WxSouth like to talk about the other shoe dropping when speaking of nature. In other words, nature may balance one extreme with another. I highly doubt we reverse December's warmth, but if we can go normal on temps for the next two months(or even slightly above) along with a strong southern branch...I think we will have several events to track and snow/ice events for many of us. I again am very interested in the time frame where the NAO is forecast to go negative(if it indeed does).

Honestly, isn't it kind of a good thing that extreme cold is not around? Don't we tend to do better with snow with upper 20's- lower 30's temps? Anecdotal, but it seems like we get our best snows with seasonable winter temperatures.

[Carvers Gap]

Honestly, isn't it kind of a good thing that extreme cold is not around? Don't we tend to do better with snow with upper 20's- lower 30's temps? Anecdotal, but it seems like we get our best snows with seasonable winter temperatures.

Silas, good to see you chiming in...Suppression city when it is cold. Though, it is nice to have cold to begin an event and then go all snow. Just looking over in the SE thread, look like the Euro weeklies sour a bit(week 4) which may be why Jax was asking his temp question. Models are notorious for breaking down blocking too quickly. To steal another thought but had noticed this as well, the weeklies seem to have a tad of warm bias in week four. They did last winter. They still had a nice storm signal around the 10-15 timeframe. If the AO holds negative...will be tough to get sustained warmth. Weeklies are a good tool. So, I don't ignore them. But I highly doubt that we return to the December pattern. The EPS looks very good in the LR. Maybe a slight descrepancy between the two. IDK. But anyway, a pattern that is "just cold enough" can be good here, though cold patterns offer less stress when the event arrives.

[Carvers Gap]

Going to be interesting to see how strong the blocking is once it develops. Last winter it took hold and the models erroneously tried to break it down too quickly. I hold to the idea that patterns tend to last 45-60 days. If the blocking is weak, we may see more zonal later in the month IMO. If the blocking is strong, it will be tough to move though a Nino juiced southern jet will do its best to break it down. I think the biggest thing is to learn as much as we can since the pattern has been unusual so far...

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS looked pretty solid to me from 180 hours to 240 hours. The first storm is a little warm but sets the stage good for the next storm. The run didn't show much for the second storm/wave but I think the potential is really there based on the 500mb maps. Curious to see what the Euro shows.

Joe B showed the 6z CFS this morning and it has widespread below normal temps for the month of January and into the start of February. Nothing extreme is being shown but solid 1-3 degree below normal temps is looking increasingly likely.

That is a nice look! 1234, I think the models are a mess right now...that article I linked above might have an answer to why things are varying so much. Some model runs are great and some not. Like you, the pattern is probably the bigger question we need to answer.

[John1122]

I will say this for how cold it can get during a strong Enso, January 1966 had a record high around New Years, then went in the freezer for most of the rest of the month. The AO went from +2 in late December to -3 to -4  by Jan 10th and that locked in negative until mid-February.  The NAO went from positive in December to negative by January 10th and stayed around -1 to -2 into early February. The PNA was actually near neutral to slightly negative during this time but the EPO was negative from mid January to early February.

 

Temps went below normal by the 10th and never got above normal the rest of the month. There were multiple snow events in January of 1966 too. My grandfather recorded 21.8 inches here on the month. Knoxville had 14.2 inches of snow that month, including a 9.9 incher on January 29th. The temp departure on January 30th was -40.8 for Knoxville. The high here on Jan 30th was 4 degrees, it was 7 for the high in Knox. The low was -14 here, -9 in Knoxville. It was -10 here on the 31st, -7 in Knoxville. 

 

December 1965 had multiple days that were 13-15 degrees above normal. The high in Knoxville on New Years eve was 70 degrees. As mentioned just above, by January 31st it was nearly 80 degrees colder.

[Carvers Gap]

I will say this for how cold it can get during a strong Enso, January 1966 had a record high around New Years, then went in the freezer for most of the rest of the month. The AO went from +2 in late December to -3 to -4  by Jan 10th and that locked in negative until mid-February.  The NAO went from positive in December to negative by January 10th and stayed around -1 to -2 into early February. The PNA was actually near neutral to slightly negative during this time but the EPO was negative from mid January to early February.

 

Temps went below normal by the 10th and never got above normal the rest of the month. There were multiple snow events in January of 1966 too. My grandfather recorded 21.8 inches here on the month. Knoxville had 14.2 inches of snow that month, including a 9.9 incher on January 29th. The temp departure on January 30th was -40.8 for Knoxville. The high here on Jan 30th was 4 degrees, it was 7 for the high in Knox. The low was -14 here, -9 in Knoxville. It was -10 here on the 31st, -7 in Knoxville. 

 

December 1965 had multiple days that were 13-15 degrees above normal. The high in Knoxville on New Years eve was 70 degrees. As mentioned just above, by January 31st it was nearly 80 degrees colder.

Good post. Bob Chill had a great post in the SE forum(I read the other forums...good stuff out there this week). He normally posts in the MA. But he talked about the cold signal on the EPS being really strong and that maybe it could verify colder. Said to think about the warm signal it gave for December. The actual pattern was warmer than the signal. Thus, when a signal shows up...it could just be a signal of colder weather than modeled.

[John1122]

I know the Nino can drive weather, but it's not as much of  driver from my experience, when strong blocking crops up. With the right blocking we get very wintry in the valley. As I mentioned a few days ago, Nashville's snowfall is 300 percent higher when the NAO is negative during strong ninos.

[nrgjeff]

Euro weeklies are cold week 1-2, especially cold that week 2 starting 11 Jan. Weeks 3-4 go closer to normal South or even very slightly mild here, and warmer than normal North. Week 3-4 may just be a baseline default El Nino pattern but the American CFS agrees. Weeks 1-2 are colder than previously forecast; and, week 2 is quite cold all over including the heart of the South - both notable developments.

 

Discussion in this thread has been great so far regarding pattern changes, new background states, and results of those if they verify. Some chatter noted a strong low around Iceland this week with deep layer WAA that may have started assaulting the polar vortex. With a physical cause, even if just billiard ball meteorology, the pattern change is believable. Now for how long?

 

Cold camp rightly states that blocking usually lasts longer than models forecast. Actual verifies colder and/or longer. Big patterns usually last 4-6 weeks, but recent years cold has generally been 3-4 weeks. Either way both are longer than the 2 weeks showing.

 

Warm camp is also correct about the one exception to the cold camp rule - El Nino, esp strong Nino, can go just the opposite. Models may maintain the blocking too long. Actual verifies not as cold for not for as long as Nino forcing reasserts control or at least influence. I had been leaning toward a light version of the warm camp. Perhaps the Mid South goes slightly mild, but no more December either way.

 

The strength of the Euro week 2 gets my attention. I mean surface is deep blue everywhere east of the Rockies and almost purple over the Mid South. 850 is cold white over the Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley. Looking for lead-up evidence, next week made interesting shifts. Christmas Day progs had next week cold; then, early work week shifted warmer for next week. Now the operational models keep next week cooler. Is this the hint to believe the hype later?

 

I'm still cautious on the cold. We had been in a textbook El Nino pattern hands down, except for just our Southeast region. North America, well all of the Northern Hemisphere, was textbook strong El Nino. Strongest ridge and warm anomalies were over SE Canada, Northern Europe, and mid-latitude East Asia. Southeast US lacked a classic sub-tropical jet, and thankfully enjoyed a lot of sun for Nino. When it did rain it was still warm and we got sun days between.

 

Bottom line: It is a textbook strong El Nino. Southeast warmth was a local anomaly. Because it is so textbook I expect the El Nino signature to return. However if the Southeast behaves like a classic Nino we will not be that warm. In fact I would expect cold later in winter. The question is the second half of January. Do we go cold straight through, or get a break? I favor continued variable. At the same time I expect some more normal winter weather at least at times. Believe it or not, I am hoping for some snow!

 

More football time: Happy New Year!

[Carvers Gap]

Euro weeklies are cold week 1-2, especially cold that week 2 starting 11 Jan. Weeks 3-4 go closer to normal South or even very slightly mild here, and warmer than normal North. Week 3-4 may just be a baseline default El Nino pattern but the American CFS agrees. Weeks 1-2 are colder than previously forecast; and, week 2 is quite cold all over including the heart of the South - both notable developments.

 

Discussion in this thread has been great so far regarding pattern changes, new background states, and results of those if they verify. Some chatter noted a strong low around Iceland this week with deep layer WAA that may have started assaulting the polar vortex. With a physical cause, even if just billiard ball meteorology, the pattern change is believable. Now for how long?

 

Cold camp rightly states that blocking usually lasts longer than models forecast. Actual verifies colder and/or longer. Big patterns usually last 4-6 weeks, but recent years cold has generally been 3-4 weeks. Either way both are longer than the 2 weeks showing.

 

Warm camp is also correct about the one exception to the cold camp rule - El Nino, esp strong Nino, can go just the opposite. Models may maintain the blocking too long. Actual verifies not as cold for not for as long as Nino forcing reasserts control or at least influence. I had been leaning toward a light version of the warm camp. Perhaps the Mid South goes slightly mild, but no more December either way.

 

The strength of the Euro week 2 gets my attention. I mean surface is deep blue everywhere east of the Rockies and almost purple over the Mid South. 850 is cold white over the Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley. Looking for lead-up evidence, next week made interesting shifts. Christmas Day progs had next week cold; then, early work week shifted warmer for next week. Now the operational models keep next week cooler. Is this the hint to believe the hype later?

 

I'm still cautious on the cold. We had been in a textbook El Nino pattern hands down, except for just our Southeast region. North America, well all of the Northern Hemisphere, was textbook strong El Nino. Strongest ridge and warm anomalies were over SE Canada, Northern Europe, and mid-latitude East Asia. Southeast US lacked a classic sub-tropical jet, and thankfully enjoyed a lot of sun for Nino. When it did rain it was still warm and we got sun days between.

 

Bottom line: It is a textbook strong El Nino. Southeast warmth was a local anomaly. Because it is so textbook I expect the El Nino signature to return. However if the Southeast behaves like a classic Nino we will not be that warm. In fact I would expect cold later in winter. The question is the second half of January. Do we go cold straight through, or get a break? I favor continued variable. At the same time I expect some more normal winter weather at least at times. Believe it or not, I am hoping for some snow!

 

More football time: Happy New Year!

Heckuva post, Jeff. Happy New Year! Great information here. What makes this forum great!

[John1122]

I may be wrong, but isn't the much above normal precip in the Pac NW also not Nino-like at all? I could have sworn they were generally dry in the Pac-NW during a typical Nino.

[Silas Lang]

Silas, good to see you chiming in...Suppression city when it is cold. Though, it is nice to have cold to begin an event and then go all snow. Just looking over in the SE thread, look like the Euro weeklies sour a bit(week 4) which may be why Jax was asking his temp question. Models are notorious for breaking down blocking too quickly. To steal another thought but had noticed this as well, the weeklies seem to have a tad of warm bias in week four. They did last winter. They still had a nice storm signal around the 10-15 timeframe. If the AO holds negative...will be tough to get sustained warmth. Weeklies are a good tool. So, I don't ignore them. But I highly doubt that we return to the December pattern. The EPS looks very good in the LR. Maybe a slight descrepancy between the two. IDK. But anyway, a pattern that is "just cold enough" can be good here, though cold patterns offer less stress when the event arrives.

 

Thanks Carver! The upcoming pattern has finally reeled me back in. Very true about last Winter's temps. The cold shots got progressively colder as they approached. Hopefully it will be the same this year. Also, this coming January's cold is not looking as intense as last years, so maybe we will not have to worry too much about suppression if the air masses are a little cooler than  modeled. Obviously things could change, but I like where we are sitting at the moment.

[1234snow]

I may be wrong, but isn't the much above normal precip in the Pac NW also not Nino-like at all? I could have sworn they were generally dry in the Pac-NW during a typical Nino.

I think your right. It seems like the NW is drier and California is wetter in a typical Nino. I also remember seeing surprising below normal precip for the Ohio Valley and western Tennessee Valley for a typical strong Nino.

[1234snow]

That is a nice look! 1234, I think the models are a mess right now...that article I linked above might have an answer to why things are varying so much. Some model runs are great and some not. Like you, the pattern is probably the bigger question we need to answer.

I am mildly excited about the pattern we are entering. I figured back in early December we wouldn't turn colder until the very end of January. So I'm excited the pattern is changing this quickly. I'm also skeptical that we will cash in with this pattern. I don't think we will have an extremely cold month. I think anything we get in January will icing on the cake as February will be our month based on climo.

[tnweathernut]

A note about cold temps and suppression. It's more about blocking versus no blocking. I have seen below zero weather one day, with the temp the next day above freezing the next. Also, a juiced southern stream tends to maximize warm air advection.

[John1122]

I think your right. It seems like the NW is drier and California is wetter in a typical Nino. I also remember seeing surprising below normal precip for the Ohio Valley and western Tennessee Valley for a typical strong Nino.

 

It's been more like the last week or so has been Nino-like imo. 

[tnweathernut]

Euro weeklies are cold week 1-2, especially cold that week 2 starting 11 Jan. Weeks 3-4 go closer to normal South or even very slightly mild here, and warmer than normal North. Week 3-4 may just be a baseline default El Nino pattern but the American CFS agrees. Weeks 1-2 are colder than previously forecast; and, week 2 is quite cold all over including the heart of the South - both notable developments.

Discussion in this thread has been great so far regarding pattern changes, new background states, and results of those if they verify. Some chatter noted a strong low around Iceland this week with deep layer WAA that may have started assaulting the polar vortex. With a physical cause, even if just billiard ball meteorology, the pattern change is believable. Now for how long?

Cold camp rightly states that blocking usually lasts longer than models forecast. Actual verifies colder and/or longer. Big patterns usually last 4-6 weeks, but recent years cold has generally been 3-4 weeks. Either way both are longer than the 2 weeks showing.

Warm camp is also correct about the one exception to the cold camp rule - El Nino, esp strong Nino, can go just the opposite. Models may maintain the blocking too long. Actual verifies not as cold for not for as long as Nino forcing reasserts control or at least influence. I had been leaning toward a light version of the warm camp. Perhaps the Mid South goes slightly mild, but no more December either way.

The strength of the Euro week 2 gets my attention. I mean surface is deep blue everywhere east of the Rockies and almost purple over the Mid South. 850 is cold white over the Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley. Looking for lead-up evidence, next week made interesting shifts. Christmas Day progs had next week cold; then, early work week shifted warmer for next week. Now the operational models keep next week cooler. Is this the hint to believe the hype later?

I'm still cautious on the cold. We had been in a textbook El Nino pattern hands down, except for just our Southeast region. North America, well all of the Northern Hemisphere, was textbook strong El Nino. Strongest ridge and warm anomalies were over SE Canada, Northern Europe, and mid-latitude East Asia. Southeast US lacked a classic sub-tropical jet, and thankfully enjoyed a lot of sun for Nino. When it did rain it was still warm and we got sun days between.

Bottom line: It is a textbook strong El Nino. Southeast warmth was a local anomaly. Because it is so textbook I expect the El Nino signature to return. However if the Southeast behaves like a classic Nino we will not be that warm. In fact I would expect cold later in winter. The question is the second half of January. Do we go cold straight through, or get a break? I favor continued variable. At the same time I expect some more normal winter weather at least at times. Believe it or not, I am hoping for some snow!

More football time: Happy New Year!

A Jeff sighting..... It's a good day! Thanks for your input. I love where the pattern is heading, just hope we have a couple of systems to track between the 10th and 20th.