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Winter 2015-16

Mr Bob

By Mr Bob,
in Tennessee Valley

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
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Natural gas has been spiking the last two days, reports from weather services dealing in the energy sector are saying that we will be heading into a deep freeze in mid January and beyond. The forecast is for cold to come, a brief warm up, then sustained cold from Mid January on for the East. The article I read said the South to the Southeast would be the coldest as compared to normal. When the people with money riding on getting the weather right start honking the cold signal, it gives me even more hope that the pattern is truly changing. 

I agree John, big money is on cold and I wouldn't bet against it. Long range modeling has been very consistent the last several days.

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Mr Bob

Mr Bob

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Natural gas has been spiking the last two days, reports from weather services dealing in the energy sector are saying that we will be heading into a deep freeze in mid January and beyond. The forecast is for cold to come, a brief warm up, then sustained cold from Mid January on for the East. The article I read said the South to the Southeast would be the coldest as compared to normal. When the people with money riding on getting the weather right start honking the cold signal, it gives me even more hope that the pattern is truly changing.

Nat gas is up $0.88 from the holiday lull to this afternoon. The pattern is complicated for sure...especially with another significant warm shot after this cool down. One thing I see around here a lot and Don S mentioned it....get the pattern then get the delivery. A little patience is a good thing but with such an active southern storm track and lack of significant Arctic air, I am concerned this under delivers for snow starved weenies outside of the favored mountains, upslope and plateau regions. At least the ski industry will salvage some of their season. Perhaps we will too...this has been a weird winter so far but I have my doubts.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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GFS,Euro,Control ,GEFS all are hinting at a decent LLJ kicking in,timing differences around the 11th looks more t-storms than winter.Maybe the models are playing games but that's what i'm looking at.

Colder/normal patterns can produce storms. IMO I don't see anything of the variety of last week. Sure, it could happen. But this month should be normal to just below on temps, so severe wx might be tough to come by...But, I try to never say never. I think the blizzard of '93 was preceded by a tornado outbreak a couple of weeks before. At some point very soon the atmosphere/models is going to react to a -AO, +PNA, and a -NAO. I am not calling for a blizzard, but would not be surprised to see that pattern ushered-in with a winter storm. I look at TX. DonS had a great article today. I recommend it.
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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Hopefully DT's right,we'll see.Looks cold.But at the same time you don't see as strong as a +PNA you saw yesterday thus the heights rise in the SE

ao.sprd2.gif 618×800 .png Eric Webb webberweather Twitter.png

The CPC teleconnections look about as good as one could draw them up. Whether that works out for us is up for debate. But we rarely have had them look this good during the last decade.

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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Colder/normal patterns can produce storms. IMO I don't see anything of the variety of last week. Sure, it could happen. But this month should be normal to just below on temps, so severe wx might be tough to come by...But, I try to never say never. I think the blizzard of '93 was preceded by a tornado outbreak a couple of weeks before. At some point very soon the atmosphere/models is going to react to a -AO, +PNA, and a -NAO. I am not calling for a blizzard, but would not be surprised to see that pattern ushered-in with a winter storm. I look at TX. DonS had a great article today. I recommend it.

Oh i agree down the road but i just have my doubts around the 11th in the Valley,but that's still long range so it very well could change.But, both the GFS and Euro are hinting at a screaming a STJ of 140kts coming through the Valley from the SE pac,that screams warmth to me in the Valley

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Oh i agree down the road but i just have my doubts around the 11th in the Valley,but that's still long range so it very well could change.But, both the GFS and Euro are hinting at a screaming a STJ of 140kts coming through the Valley from the SE pac,that screams warmth to me in the Valley

I am going to claim no expert knowledge about Jan 11th. We may or may not hear thunder. We may or may not see snow. It may be sunny. It is twelve days out. I do like that window. But those teleconnections that you posted would seem indicate winter wx around that time frame. Might be like Jan 10-20. The models until a few recent runs have indicated that. Plenty of time for the models to show multiple scenarios before settling on one. Either way(snow or thunder) I continue to remain very optimistic about the directions we are taking. Certainly, we could get nothing. Has happened before. We live in the South after all. Us hoping for snow in winter is like the NW territory hoping they hit 80 during summer.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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If we can manage a -AO/NAO combo to heck with the pacific

We may get all three. I will say this...heckuva a lot better than seeing record highs peppered throughout the LR. Sometimes the NAO does not work out...but many great wx patterns in this region have had one. Sometimes it just takes a dip in response to an EC storm. Sometimes pattern changes are preceeded by a winter storm. Whether the NAO holds negative...who knows? The dip or rise of the NAO is a strong signal of a winter storm. A sharp drop in the AO is also a good signal. I will take the teleconnections in my favor versus LR model runs. But hey, going to watch some great bowl games. Not all bad!
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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Hopefully DT's right,we'll see.Looks cold.But at the same time you don't see as strong as a +PNA you saw yesterday thus the heights rise in the SE

attachicon.gifao.sprd2.gif 618×800 .pngattachicon.gifEric Webb webberweather Twitter.png

Took a look at the MA forum. They talk some today about whether it is helping or hurting things. Give it a look and see what u think. Might not hurt for the PNA to trend towards neutral if we get a -NAO.
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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

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Jax, congrats on the Auburn win. Also, looked like you meant to roll with an attachment but I'm not seeing it. Just a heads up.

Thanks,hit the enter button by mistake i guess.

 

Trough looks much better.Still has that 588 Bermuda high lurking though,Control has a tilted system that goes vertically stacked in Tn.Still shows some convection in the Valley ahead of the system on the 10-11 time frame.But over all it looks better,believe we'll see alot of model chaos coming up.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Thanks,hit the enter button by mistake i guess.

 

Trough looks much better.Still has that 588 Bermuda high lurking though,Control has a tilted system that goes vertically stacked in Tn.Still shows some convection in the Valley ahead of the system on the 10-11 time frame.But over all it looks better,believe we'll see alot of model chaos coming up.

Must be looking at different products. Canadian has a winter storm signature and to some extent so does the Euro and/ or its ensembles. Not seeing any sign of a Bermuda high? After a brief warm-up both models seem to point to a continued cold pattern. Basically it is the teleconnections/GGEM/EPS vs GFS(warm)/GEFS. People, I am signing up for the model center tonight. Seemed like continued good trends today. I still like the time around the 10th as a beginning for seeing and/or tracking events.
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Stovepipe

Stovepipe

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Must be looking at different products. Canadian has a winter storm signature and to some extent so does the Euro and/ or its ensembles. Not seeing any sign of a Bermuda high? After a brief warm-up both models seem to point to a continued cold pattern. Basically it is the teleconnections/GGEM/EPS vs GFS(warm)/GEFS. People, I am signing up for the model center tonight. Seemed like continued good trends today. I still like the time around the 10th as a beginning for seeing and/or tracking events.

 

I caved on a weatherbell sub today, this is getting too interesting to not have data at the finger tips!

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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We're doomed!

LOL. I know! I may need to rethink that. Somebody needs to cancel winter. For those who weren't here last year...that is a bit of an inside joke. I think I may just get AmWx and roll with that. Also, I have WxSouth.

Robert basically made a good point on tonight's extended discussion. How many times do we see a -AO and the models do not suppress the pattern enough? Says that the pattern flow may not be suprressed enough when looking at the blocking shown. Something to think about. He also thinks the blocking up high is playing havoc with the models. Still feels good about his winter forecast.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Thanks,hit the enter button by mistake i guess.

Trough looks much better.Still has that 588 Bermuda high lurking though,Control has a tilted system that goes vertically stacked in Tn.Still shows some convection in the Valley ahead of the system on the 10-11 time frame.But over all it looks better,believe we'll see alot of model chaos coming up.

For the record, WxSouth does mention that the Bernuda High is trying to hang on for dear life. So, you are correct!
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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Looks like the EPS from overnight and 6z GEFS are beginning to suppress the storm track for January. Also, both dropped heights significantly in the East. We will see over the next few days what eventually is settled upon. Very different than yesterday's runs. CPC teleconnections are still solid. Both had pretty active southern branches. Will be interesting if the models hold serve during the next few days. I still like the time frame around the 10th.

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

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Looks like the EPS from overnight and 6z GEFS are beginning to suppress the storm track for January. Also, both dropped heights significantly in the East. We will see over the next few days what eventually is settled upon. Very different than yesterday's runs. CPC teleconnections are still solid. Both had pretty active southern branches. Will be interesting if the models hold serve during the next few days. I still like the time frame around the 10th.

Good trends in the modeling last night.  I wouldn't trust the GFS for anything.  The funny thing is, it's overall look remains much the same from previous runs, but it appears to be catching on to the fact there should be lower heights in the east beyond 240ish.  It will be interesting to see if the 0z EPS showing a cluster of lows around the central gulf coast is close to correct at day 11.  It does have company, as the 0z Canadian Ensemble Control shows much the same (low from southern Alabama to off the northern NC coast).  

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