Winter 2015-16

[Runman292]

Man, the RGEM is healthy with the back side/NW flow snow, drops 2-4+ inches on the Plateau and Mountains and 1-3 in NE TN/SWVA/SEKY. NAM 4K is 1-3 over the Plateau/Mountains and not much elsewhere. GFS looks like 1-3 over the same areas with 4+ over the favored spots.

I'd trim 50-60 percent off those totals below 2000-3000 feet.

I was getting excited until I saw that you weren't talking about the Central Valley. It's official for me: I'm ready for Spring.

[John1122]

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

443 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS

PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

.COLD AIR WILL DIVE QUICKLY INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW

PRESSURE WITH RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE

TRANSITION WILL OCCUR FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION ALONG THE

TENNESSE/NORTH CAROLINA LINE...NORTHERN PLATEAU AND HIGHER

ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THIS TRANSITION WILL TAKE

PLACE AFTER SUNSET AND SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TNZ012>014-035-242100-

/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0009.160225T0600Z-160226T0000Z/

SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-MORGAN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...

WARTBURG

443 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST

THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM

EST THURSDAY.

* EVENT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW LATER THIS EVENING

AND INTO TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY

EVENING. EXPECT ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2

INCHES.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...

AND/OR FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...BUT

ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. DRIVING AND WALKING MAY

BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. BE PREPARED FOR

SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. IF YOU MUST

TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR

DESTINATION.

[weathertree4u]

I was getting excited until I saw that you weren't talking about the Central Valley. It's official for me: I'm ready for Spring.

Right there with you. Ready for Spring and the discussion for 2016/2017 Winter!

[Carvers Gap]

KTRI is at +.7 for Feb so far, not including the 61 for a high forecast for today. Then we get 2-3 days of cooler than normal temps, followed by additional above normal temps to end the month Sunday and Monday. Will be interesting here if temps can go above normal for the month. Today will mark the seventh straight day of above normal temps. Those temps have completely erased the cold departures from mid-month here.

Edit. Chatt is +1.0 and TYS is 0.0. Today's temps are not included.

[JayCee]

Wild weather around today...

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
811 AM EST WED FEB 24 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CAMPBELL COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE...
  KNOX COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE...
  WESTERN GRAINGER COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN BLOUNT COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE...
  ANDERSON COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE...
  CLAIBORNE COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE...
  UNION COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 900 AM EST

* AT 809 AM EST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JACKSBORO TO NEAR OLIVER
  SPRINGS TO NEAR OAK RIDGE TO NEAR LOUISVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  60 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  KNOXVILLE...OAK RIDGE...CLINTON...ALCOA...LA FOLLETTE...MAYNARDVILLE...
  RUTLEDGE...FARRAGUT...OLIVER SPRINGS...NEW TAZEWELL...LOUISVILLE...
  TAZEWELL...PLAINVIEW...JACKSBORO...HARROGATE-SHAWANEE...CARYVILLE...
  HALLS...BLAINE...LAKE CITY AND NORRIS.

 

 

[Mr Bob]

KTRI is at +.7 for Feb so far, not including the 61 for a high forecast for today. Then we get 2-3 days of cooler than normal temps, followed by additional above normal temps to end the month Sunday and Monday. Will be interesting here if temps can go above normal for the month. Today will mark the seventh straight day of above normal temps. Those temps have completely erased the cold departures from mid-month here.

Edit. Chatt is +1.0 and TYS is 0.0. Today's temps are not included.

The '58 analog some were touting bit the dust...Analogs are still useful, though. Just don't go looking for the exact same weather pattern you had in a particular year. One piece that worked out really well this winter (so far for die-hards) was coldest temperature for the season. The other two Super El Ninos yielded 18 in '98 and 19 in '83 for the lowest temperature according to how we measure it here....a weighted average of the biggest load centers in the TN Valley.....so far this winter, we have hit a low of 17 degrees and that looks to hold up barring some bizarre 93 storm. Also interesting, 1998 did it in mid-March for the die-hards out there...

[John1122]

1965-1966 worked out pretty well as an analog. Very warm December into New Years then and this year. Got cold around January 5th then and this year. Got snowy in the area during mid to late January both years. Though not quite as far south as 1966. '66 saw a big warm up in February and it never got really cold again. We've had more wintry weather this February than '66 managed.

[nrgjeff]

MRX snow chart at weather.gov looks reasonable. Might consider a touch more Upper Plateau esp if surface temps stay near freezing. BNA/OHX has more uniform 1-2 their adjacent counties. It will depend on temperature. Smokies look nice with continuing snow Thursday night and well below freezing.

[Carvers Gap]

The '58 analog some were touting bit the dust...Analogs are still useful, though. Just don't go looking for the exact same weather pattern you had in a particular year. One piece that worked out really well this winter (so far for die-hards) was coldest temperature for the season. The other two Super El Ninos yielded 18 in '98 and 19 in '83 for the lowest temperature according to how we measure it here....a weighted average of the biggest load centers in the TN Valley.....so far this winter, we have hit a low of 17 degrees and that looks to hold up barring some bizarre 93 storm. Also interesting, 1998 did it in mid-March for the die-hards out there...

Good points as usual. Yeah, analogs help with unlocking unknowns in potential upcoming patterns, but ultimately chaos within a pattern will create its own circumstances. Though Nino climo certainly has some similarities between each year. I liked the 97-98 analog. That analog did not work as well at TRI. Though, the nearly snowless current winter in the cenral and southern Valley is close. Personally, I don't lean a ton on analogs, but I do rely on the tropics(oceans) for ideas during winter. The MJO and ENSO have been pretty solid this winter as forecasting tools, but nor perfect. As an example of how the ENSO impacted sensible wx, if in doubt this winter's storms normally would verify north and west of modeling in this region. Just too much energy in the southern branch due to the Super Nino. The depth and staying pattern of cold seemed to verify as less in terms of duration and intensity. The MJO(may be getting ready to bust w phase 8 though I am not sure) has been decent at giving indications of when warm-ups would occur. The big surprise for me(relative to my seasonal ideas) was the cold in January/Mid Feb and snow in my area, but I do note that other areas such as TYS and your area had less snow. Also, I would have expected bigger snows in the mountains. Of course that may still happen this spring. The lack of chances seems to fit super Nino climo.

 

Edit:  I have 18" of snow for the winter during potentially a top 25 warm winter(purely guessing at the ranking...could be much higher).

[weathertree4u]

Good points as usual. Yeah, analogs help with unlocking unknowns in potential upcoming patterns, but ultimately chaos within a pattern will create its own circumstances. Though Nino climo certainly has some similarities between each year. I liked the 97-98 analog. That analog did not work as well at TRI. Though, the nearly snowless current winter in the cenral and southern Valley is close. Personally, I don't lean a ton on analogs, but I do rely on the tropics(oceans) for ideas during winter. The MJO and ENSO have been pretty solid this winter as forecasting tools, but nor perfect. As an example of how the ENSO impacted sensible wx, if in doubt this winter's storms normally would verify north and west of modeling in this region. Just too much energy in the southern branch due to the Super Nino. The depth and staying pattern of cold seemed to verify as less in terms of duration and intensity. The MJO(may be getting ready to bust w phase 8 though I am not sure) has been decent at giving indications of when warm-ups would occur. The big surprise for me(relative to my seasonal ideas) was the cold in January/Mid Feb and snow in my area, but I do note that other areas such as TYS and your area had less snow. Also, I would have expected bigger snows in the mountains. Of course that may still happen this spring. The lack of chances seems to fit super Nino climo.

 

Edit:  I have 18" of snow for the winter during potentially a top 25 warm winter(purely guessing at the ranking...could be much higher).

I have no where near the weather knowledge as most people on here but I too have had a pretty good year. I have a biased opinion and always wish that we had gotten more snow but honestly, I am close to 15" for the year, Nashville is just over 11" so, all things considered, it could be worse. I am still waiting on one of those seasons like the area had in the 1960's or from my childhood, the winters of the late 1970's that developed my love of snow and falsely led me to believe that it snowed like that every year, I wish that were true!

[Carvers Gap]

I have no where near the weather knowledge as most people on here but I too have had a pretty good year. I have a biased opinion and always wish that we had gotten more snow but honestly, I am close to 15" for the year, Nashville is just over 11" so, all things considered, it could be worse. I am still waiting on one of those seasons like the area had in the 1960's or from my childhood, the winters of the late 1970's that developed my love of snow and falsely led me to believe that it snowed like that every year, I wish that were true!

 

Same here regarding the bold print.  And I might add, so glad to see the snow drought busted in M TN...  That has to be the highlight of the winter for me.  The TN Valley sub-forum has also grown a bunch which is also a highlight.

[weathertree4u]

 

I have no where near the weather knowledge as most people on here but I too have had a pretty good year. I have a biased opinion and always wish that we had gotten more snow but honestly, I am close to 15" for the year, Nashville is just over 11" so, all things considered, it could be worse. I am still waiting on one of those seasons like the area had in the 1960's or from my childhood, the winters of the late 1970's that developed my love of snow and falsely led me to believe that it snowed like that every year, I wish that were true!

 

Same here regarding the bold print.  And I might add, so glad to see the snow drought busted in M TN...  That has to be the highlight of the winter for me.  The TN Valley sub-forum has also grown a bunch which is also a highlight.

 

Hoping for a weak to moderate La Nina this next year, some of our best years are the weak to moderate ones, we tend to have little to no snow when we have a strong one. Likely this borders on banter but it just seems to me, generally speaking, winters are becoming colder with more opportunities. For example, really the only winter of the past several years that was real bad around Middle TN was 2011/2012 the year with perpetual Autumn. I cannot help but think that we will see interesting things over the next several years as the sun goes to sleep basically. An exciting time to be alive really. The last time that happened, the sun was quite, was around the time that Nashville was founded, late 1700's and early settlers were walking across frozen tributaries. The exciting part is that either way, we should be able to measure the impact on the weather that the lack of sunspots have.

[PowellVolz]

Man it must be really cold aloft, every time is comes a shower it feels like the temp really drops.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Daniel Boone]

I see Kmrx's snowfall forecast map is based on a Model. Seems not many with the NWS do any with human input anymore. 

   Those models always underdo upslope snow over se Ky and swva. ALWAYS!  

   Many times black mountain in Harlan co. And High knob in Wise county wind up with more than area's of the smokies, some 2000 ft. Higher.

[Daniel Boone]

Here's an interesting link ran by a buddy of mine about high knob and immediate adjacent area's.

  

   Snowfall total's, storm and seasonal from various sections of the area are posted along with photo's. Climatological data is also provided.

http://www.highknoblandform.com

[bearman]

Getting light flakes flying in West Knoxville.  That is a surprise.  

[JayCee]

Hoping for a weak to moderate La Nina this next year, some of our best years are the weak to moderate ones, we tend to have little to no snow when we have a strong one. Likely this borders on banter but it just seems to me, generally speaking, winters are becoming colder with more opportunities. For example, really the only winter of the past several years that was real bad around Middle TN was 2011/2012 the year with perpetual Autumn. I cannot help but think that we will see interesting things over the next several years as the sun goes to sleep basically. An exciting time to be alive really. The last time that happened, the sun was quite, was around the time that Nashville was founded, late 1700's and early settlers were walking across frozen tributaries. The exciting part is that either way, we should be able to measure the impact on the weather that the lack of sunspots have.

 

I can't help but believe you are correct.  The sun's activity has been strangely quiet, even during the recent solar maximum.  Now that we are heading back toward a minimum, it's anybody's guess how our climate will respond.  We've definitely had some cooler and snowier winters in the Eastern U.S. starting around 2009-10.  The last two years have been pretty good in Tennessee, and this year wasn't awful considering the monster El Nino we had around, especially for middle TN.  We do live in the south, after all.  Nevertheless, I believe more interesting winters could be in store for the rest of the decade, and perhaps beyond. 

[JayCee]

PER MRX:

 

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
314 PM EST THU FEB 25 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANGE OVER FROM A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW
OVER THE VALLEY EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AS THE VERTICAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE COOLS. MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST PLUME
OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE BETWEEN
00-06Z...WHICH COULD GIVE THE NORTHERN PLATEAU...AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
OF AN INCH OR TWO OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY FOR
THE PLATEAU THROUGH 12Z AS WELL. ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE WILL BE A
SHOT OF COLDER AIR...WHICH WILL HELP THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOW STICK
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND THE EAST
TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

DO THINK THERE MAY BE A SHOT OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS /WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS/ OVER MUCH OF THE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE WAVE
DROPS SOUTH BETWEEN 03-09Z. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE
TEMPS...AM EXPECTING ANY ROAD IMPACTS TO BE MITIGATED MOSTLY.
HOWEVER...SOME BLACK ICE ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...ALONG
WITH A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE 28 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO HANDLE THIS THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR
COMMUTE. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. HOWEVER...A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME
CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 40S ONCE AGAIN.

 

[Runman292]

Looking at some of the models, there just doesn't seem to be any real opportunities for significant snow in East Tennessee. I guess it's time to transition to Spring.

[jaxjagman]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0400 AM CST FRI FEB 26 2016

   VALID 291200Z - 051200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WITHIN THE
   WESTERLIES MAY PERSIST NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST INTO AND THROUGH THIS
   PERIOD.  BUT A SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS
   EMERGING FROM A STRONG JET OVER THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC APPEAR
   LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO ROUND THE CREST OF THE RIDGE...BEFORE DIGGING
   THROUGH WEST NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES.  AT
   THE SAME TIME...IT APPEARS THAT A BROAD VORTEX CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
   MAY SHIFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
   WEEK...BEFORE RETREATING TOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES THROUGH THE END OF
   THE PERIOD.  PRIOR TO THIS SOUTHWARD SHIFT...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
   THAT ONE DIGGING IMPULSE WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
   OF THE SOUTHWARD SURGING LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE VORTEX.

   THIS PROBABLY WILL INITIATE AND TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF
   THE PRECEDING SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPING LATE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS
   THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  HOWEVER...THE
   SPREAD WITHIN THE VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLE OUTPUT REMAINS LARGE
   CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE.
   SIZABLE DISPARITY EXISTS AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AS WELL...THOUGH
   BOTH THE ECMWF/ECENS AND THE GFS/NCEP MREF DO SUGGEST THAT THE
   DEVELOPING SYSTEM PROBABLY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
   SOME INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BY NEXT TUESDAY.  IT
   CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THIS POTENTIAL COULD BE MAXIMIZED ANYWHERE
   FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION INTO THE
   OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.

   EVEN WITHOUT THESE UNCERTAINTIES...THE EXTENT OF THE INLAND MOISTURE
   RETURN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS UNCLEAR.  AT THE
   MOMENT...GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THAT IT MAY REMAIN
   LIMITED...IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT COOLING/DRYING OF THE GULF
   BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
   DESTABILIZATION AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  AS A RESULT...AT THE
   PRESENT TIME...SEVERE PROBABILITIES REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS
   THE U.S. THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

   ..KERR.. 02/26/2016

[jaxjagman]

Models are horrid in Mid range.GFS went from severe to a snow storm on the Rim

[jaxjagman]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1108 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2016

VALID 12Z MON FEB 29 2016 - 12Z FRI MAR 04 2016

...GUIDANCE AND UNCERTIANTY ASSESSMENT...

RECENT DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OFFER ABOVE
NORMAL FORECAST SPREAD AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES DAYS
3-7...WITH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS TENDING TO TREND DAILY IN A SIMILAR
FASHION TO THEIR SISTER DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THIS DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR PREDICTABILILTY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY EVIDENT CONSIDERING
AN UNCERTAIN EMPHASIS OF A SERIES OF SMALL-MID SCALE NRN AND SRN
STREAM SYSTEMS SLATED TO WORK AROUND OR THROUGH AN ESTABLISHED
MID-UPPER LEVEL WRN NOAM RIDGE BEFORE DIGGING INTO A MEAN
EAST-CENTRAL CANADA/US MEAN TROUGH POSITION ALOFT.

AM HESITANT GIVEN RECENT MODEL VARIANCE TO ADJUST WPC GUIDANCE TOO
RADICALLY FROM CONTINUITY PENDING MORE SUSTAINED MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE TRENDS/SUPPORT. THEREFORE...THE WPC PRODUCT SUITE LEANED
STRONGLY ON CONTINUITY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION
ALOFT...BUT DID TRY TO INCORPORATE A BIT OF MORE CLUSTERED NEWER
GUIDANCE FROM THE 06 UTC GFS/GEFS AND 00 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN.

...PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

THIS PATTERN SEEMS HIGHLIGHTED BY PERIODIC BREAKTHROUGH OF
MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC ENERGY THROUGH THE WRN US MEAN POSITION
SPREADING MODEST PCPN ACROSS THE NWRN US TO THE N-CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO MON/MIDWEEK/AND THEN LATER WEEK. ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS OVER
COASTAL AREAS AND INLAND OVER FAVORED TERRAIN. THIS UNCERTAIN
ENERGY STREAM ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE RIDGE POSITION FROM W-CENTRAL CANADA
INTO AN ERN US MEAN TROUGH ALOFT ALSO SETS THE STAGE FOR PERIODIC
CYCLOGENESIS AND FRONTOGENESIS DOWNSTRREAM OVER THE CENTRAL TO ERN
US. DYNAMIC SUPPORT ON PAR FOR WELL ORGANIZED BUT UNCERTAIN LOW
TRACKS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP DEEPENING GULF OF MEXICO THEN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN POTENTIAL. WPC SURFACE PROGS
HIGHLIGHT SUCH A THREAT WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR SYSTEM
GENESIS/EXPANSION OVER THE E-CENTRAL TO ERN US MON INTO WED AND
THEN AGAIN THU/FRI. THESE SYSTEMS COULD ENHANCE WARM SECTOR
CONVECTION/RAINFALL AND OFFER A WINTER WEATHER THREAT ON THE
NRN/NW PERIPHERY OF THE OVERALL PCPN SHIELD.

SCHICHTEL

[John1122]

GFS is getting more and more interesting. Keeps tracking the low further south with heavier backside snows across the area, especially the far western valley and mountains. 18z put down 6 inches from Millington to Dyersburg.

[John1122]

12z cut up the Apps and redeveloped a low around Charlotte. 18z comes out of Texas and stays about 100 miles south of the Tennessee border, storm is slower and a stronger high is building into the Northern Plains. If that high would come a little faster and the storm track is another 150 miles south it could be big business for a lot of us.

[jaxjagman]

The only problem with the GFS though , it has no support from the GEFS

 

[John1122]

I don't trust it or the GFES at this point to be honest. They've all be really bad with storm track beyond 2 days out this past month or so. If the ensembles had been trust worthy we'd all have had another 12 inches or more of snow, as they've often shown favorable solutions that ended very far away from this range.

[jaxjagman]

I don't trust it or the GFES at this point to be honest. They've all be really bad with storm track beyond 2 days out this past month or so. If the ensembles had been trust worthy we'd all have had another 12 inches or more of snow, as they've often shown favorable solutions that ended very far away from this range.

Tis is true,but no model shows it doing what the GFS shows it doing,you really have to say it's the outlier right now at this range.The euro and eps both has a slider Thursday,we need it to dig more though or get more cold,cutoff for snow is seemingly at the Ky line,sure we'll see it change again.

[jaxjagman]

 

Time frame to watch is still around the 12th of March,for what could POSSIBLY be a big severe event in the east.Top is the CFS.Next map if off todays 12z run off the EPS as you can see the heights pumping up in East Asia the first couple days of March

 

 

I know how Mr.Bob frowns on long range maps,just trying to make a point,this just has some good potential.Just off the map off the GFS today is showing the potential for SBCapes in  in excess of 2k into the Valley

 

[jaxjagman]

Since the GFS tonight sided with the euro here is the VGP in the western parts of the Valley Tuesday afternoon, from this afternoons Euro

 

VGP = Vorticity Generation Parameter. The VGP is meant to estimate the rate of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity by a thunderstorm updraft. Values greater than 0.2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms.

 

It's up to 0.45 the dark shaded,this will change again though in the vicinity.This dont discount any other area,this part just caught my eye

 

[Runman292]

Since the GFS tonight sided with the euro here is the VGP in the western parts of the Valley Tuesday afternoon, from this afternoons Euro

VGP = Vorticity Generation Parameter. The VGP is meant to estimate the rate of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity by a thunderstorm updraft. Values greater than 0.2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms.

It's up to 0.45 the dark shaded,this will change again though in the vicinity.This dont discount any other area,this part just caught my eye

proa.accuweather.com adcbin professional hazwx.asp.png

I'm guessing that East Tennessee is in the grey?