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Winter 2015-16

Mr Bob

By Mr Bob,
in Tennessee Valley

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Lots of potential the first week of March for a good overrunning event

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12 Canadian for March 1 is like deja vu all over again w/ the overrunning event.  12z GFS has a decent set-up during that time frame.  The thing to watch is just how strong this cold shot will be.  They have been over modeled all winter both in strength and duration of the event.  If the cold shot can press south as much as modeled, we have a shot that doesn't have so many moving pieces that have to align.  But I suspect the southern jet will be stronger and the cold not as strong.  What we really need to hope for is a Miller A out of the GOM similar to the 12z GFS setup.  With blocking in place, that is our best bet.  I think overrunning will possibly shift well into the Ohio Valley if trends continue.  Spring shakes-up the wavelengths of the jet, and that plays total havoc w/ the models.  Bout the best thing we can do right now is find a time frame like you have done and watch it.  That appears to be potentially our last window, but I am guessing maybe one more after that which will be more of a thread the needle situation due to time of year.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Euro completely caved to the GFS with the 500 mb pattern post day 7z the GFS has been leading the way for days at 500mb

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Yep...not a bad look at all.  I have been taking a break from looking at modeling for the past few days.  And the GFS has had some pretty bad verification scores recently which is pretty crazy.  But definitely the Euro has moved to the GFS idea that cold is coming south.  How far?  I am not sure...but if that blocking from the 12z suite verifies, winter is not over for many IMO. 

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Have no idea what the actual events will look like, but having cold hp in place w/ a boundary draped somewhere over the upper south during late Feb/early March gets my attention.  The 12z suite is in pretty good agreement(have we said that already this winter?) that colder weather is heading this way during the last few days of Feb and early March. 

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Daniel Boone

Daniel Boone

Posted
Posted

The continued long duration ssw looks to at least do another tropospheric vo. Damage like produced the January blocking episode. That in tandem with a favorable Mjo phase should continue to further the colder looking pattern on the models the next several days. last nights Gfs looked too warm in the extended, especially @ 850. So, does look like we have a good shot of a farewell gift from old man winter.

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

The good news is the WPC is showing the Euro as an outlier and more weight towards the GEFS in the long range.Looks like a decent shot to me.-NAO/AO with a +PNA,with the MJO  in P8.Like weathertree mentioned about the sun, we need every bit of help we can get.Teleconnections don't look half bad.We'll see.

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

Such a long ways off sadly, I do hope the snow showery weather verifies after the mid-week cutter. The first 10 days of March can still produce big winter events without it having to be some extremely exceptional pattern like March 1960 or extreme event like the blizzard. If cold is in place and it's cloudly with overrunning, not worried at all about sun angle.

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

Euro looks wrong on it's 850s. With a 1034 high in the plains, that deep low east of the lakes and the extremely cold air over the lakes and Ohio valley, it should be pressing further south on the NW winds it's advertising. A 20 degree c 850 difference between 1-40 and I-70 looks wrong there.

 

GFS is only a little better. I think it would be much colder than they are advertising.

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Stormcatt

Stormcatt

Posted
Posted

12z had a massive high in the plains that suppressed everything and caused a Miller A track. 18z was 16mb weaker with the high, no suppression, no Miller A, just some clippers.

As always, long ways out and runs will be all over the place.

The biggest problem with 18z run was the western ridge placement and strength . This setup is one that you can tell very early on how the rest of the run will go . If you look at the 12z GEFS the members are spread out but more members support wintry weather vs not .

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted

The biggest problem with 18z run was the western ridge placement and strength . This setup is one that you can tell very early on how the rest of the run will go . If you look at the 12z GEFS the members are spread out but more members support wintry weather vs not .

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Probably right,the GEFS is showing this also as you can see temps much warmer into the high plains,annoying the GEFS would change

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Stormcatt

Stormcatt

Posted
Posted

Probably right,the GEFS is showing this also as you can see temps much warmer into the high plains,annoying the GEFS would change

Did you see the 12z GEFS is was very supported of the 12z op in general across the southeast . The GEFS flips from run to run all the time .

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

This storm is a beast and models are starting to show some 1-2 inch totals for parts of the area behind the storm. Maybe half a foot in the Smokies. 

 

I think the extended will be muddled until this gets on down the road. Seems like the models are always even more changeable than normal when a powerful storm is in the offing. 

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JayCee

JayCee

Posted
Posted

Appears another possible mountain wave event in the offing with the next storm.  Strong low-level jet, and winds from the southeast direction. 

 

 STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR NE SECTIONS SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG WINDS LIKELY IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS OF THE MOUNTAINS. ALSO
ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO MAINLY WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL SURFACE LOW
PASSES TO THE NE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS OR STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.
 

 

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nrgjeff

nrgjeff

Posted
Posted

Tuesday / night I do not see a way to severe thunderstorms for Tennessee. Lots of rain will make it hard to dislodge cool air or get the true warm sector in here. Gulf Coast up to even I-20 looks wild Tuesday night and the Southeastern States sub-forum has a Severe thread going. MDT is clearly justified down there. Central Mississippi and central Alabama will depend on how far north the warm front can progress, and if they get intersecting boundaries - ENH either way. North Mississippi and North Alabama should have enough rain to prevent big severe, but I agree with Slight just in case. 

Jax, do you see the Severe threat currently South of Tennessee on Tuesday shifting into our area in the overnight hours?

 

Now if you can give non-convective a chance, the mountain wave wind should be howling Tuesday night. Stability that takes away from severe gives to mountain waves. 

Appears another possible mountain wave event in the offing with the next storm.  Strong low-level jet, and winds from the southeast direction. 

 

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