Winter 2015-16

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like that cutter helps form a 50/50 low. That is a good sign as it will push the storm track south and produce storms that move up the EC.

[jaxjagman]

18z goes OV,interesting.Gives everyone some snow..lol.Not much but at least it's not all rain

[John1122]

When the pattern is changing back to wintry it seems like it's often right after a cutter.  That cutter can often lay some groundwork down the line for future snows. 

 

We're in that part of winter where it can be 70 for 5 days in a row, snow 3 or 4 inches, then be 70 again 2 or 3 days later.

[jaxjagman]

Will see if the GFS 18Z is picking up onto something.But if it's correct we will see some possible severe weather without a doubt in all of the Tn Valley coming up,Wed

[jaxjagman]

LLJ into the Valley Wed,off the 18z

[Runman292]

Here's the 0z GFS on Wednesday evening. This looks nasty.

[1234snow]

The 0z GFS was hundreds of miles to the southeast of its previous runs.

[Runman292]

Can someone post the 0z UKMET?

[Runman292]

The 0z GFS was hundreds of miles to the southeast of its previous runs.

I noticed that too. We just need it to go even more South by a great distance.

[JayCee]

Was surprised to wake up to temperatures near 60 this morning. 

[Chuckcna]

Way the models keep showing not much winter left looks like spring wants to come early I want snow Lol at least one good snow not 1-2 inches.

[Stormcatt]

12z GFS give us one last window of opportunity . The first week of March will be very very active

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[jaxjagman]

Difference in the upcoming snow chance next week between the GFS and Euro is how both models handle the 500mb's,The Euro closes it off the GFS doesn't.Hopefully it gets better ,but right now just looks like some wrap around with the upslopes doing typically better.

[Runman292]

Difference in the upcoming snow chance next week between the GFS and Euro is how both models handle the 500mb's,The Euro closes it off the GFS doesn't.Hopefully it gets better ,but right now just looks like some wrap around with the upslopes doing typically better.

Jax, do you still think that there's a Severe threat on Wednesday?

[Chuckcna]

It's weird the climate prediction site shows tn in a below to much below temps for next 14 days but its 60's around here and supposed to be for days only sign of snow on the gfs in east tn is a small wave around the 9th of march hope something else pops up soon.

[Runman292]

It's weird the climate prediction site shows tn in a below to much below temps for next 14 days but its 60's around here and supposed to be for days only sign of snow on the gfs in east tn is a small wave around the 9th of march hope something else pops up soon.

Just like with snow and cold temperatures on the medium and long range models, you have to take the rain and warm temps with a grain of salt that far ahead.

[jaxjagman]

Jax, do you still think that there's a Severe threat on Wednesday?

Don't look as good as yesterday,we'll see..Looks colder to me.Which is a good sign if you want snow

[Runman292]

Don't look as good as yesterday,we'll see..Looks colder to me.Which is a good sign if you want snow

I'll take that too. I just don't want all rain.

[jaxjagman]

I'll take that too. I just don't want all rain.

Yeah, me and you both.I'd rather have snow or thunder than just rain..blah

[jaxjagman]

Still think there will be a storm the end of the month.The GEFS off todays 12z run is showing a better -NAO with a -AO.The MJO is even showing stronger signals than yesterday into P8..Euro looks lost to me right now with the MJO and is all over the place.Yesterday it was going into the COD and coming out possibly into P5,today not so with weak signals into P8-1?NCPE has been consistent to me bringing it into P8 with strong signals.

[PowellVolz]

MRX was talking about the Euro popping a ULL at the end of the Wednesday system next week. Then I look at TWC forecast and it has an inch for Thursday and 1-3" for Thursday night. What's up with that?

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[Chuckcna]

Possible setup on 18 gfs at 240 storm in Louisiana then to Florida panhandle then out to sea right now says rain.

[jaxjagman]

Could be anything right now.Even with a -AO that could just be zr,ip,rn or sn.I'm not sure looking at at East Asia today there is much left for this winter past the 1st of the month of March

[jaxjagman]

Severe Weather Pattern Projection Based on the Recurring Rossby Wave Train, Bering Sea Rule, and Typhoon Rule by Renken and Herman.This would be around the March 12th time frame,it's not 1:1 correlated.here's a look at East Asia long range.

 

 

[jaxjagman]

Changes will be coming to the weather pattern in North America soon. With the approach of calendar Spring, the weakening of the El Nino signal and northward relocation of the subtropical jet stream, March will start to take on a mostly "warmer and wetter" look, especially after mid-month. But we still have a ways to get there, and the proverbial "last gasp of winter" is standing firmly in the way.

You may have noticed that the Madden-Julian Oscillation has slipped into a Phase 7 and 8 position. The vast area of tropical forcing is responsible to some degree for the damaging and long-lived Cyclone Winston. Perhaps more importantly for U.S. concerns, the MJO pulse is feeding both the polar and subtropical jet streams. This is not the "El Nino of yore" (e.g. 1982-83 and 1997-98) but ultimately some classic effects of the tropical forcing will be felt. When you add the still-evident positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation into the equation, you have a potential set up for a cold trough across the eastern two-thirds of the country. As that trough complex erodes, so will it chances for cold intrusions. And as the southern branch wind field exerts more influence, precipitation threats will be expanding and increasing in intensity.

As we move into the second week of March, however, the ridge/trough configuration will still be healthy enough to keep most of the eastern half of the nation in the neutral-to-cold category. The various ensemble groups have been very consistent in painting a negative height anomaly over Mexico in the 11 - 15 day time frame. If you eliminate the "stall/West" bias from those depictions, it seems clear to me that a rather deep storm will eject out of the subtropical jet stream around March 6, and likely track through the Dixie states and up along/off of the East Coast. I see this feature as the last chance, of sorts, for important snowfall amounts in the Old South, Appalachia and the Interstate 95 corridor (above Raleigh NC). After the passage of this system, which could produce a great deal of wind and precipitation, sun angle and higher atmospheric heights should lead to more forecasts for rain east of the Rocky Mountains.

The western third of the nation could experience chances for major downslope wind events (Santa Ana type) and dryness with warmer than normal temperatures. But keep in mind that erosion and relocation of the current 500MB longwave pattern may actually mean increased chances for rain in California and the Desert Southwest. Along with colder air, much of the West may make a run at higher water tables after St. Patrick's Day.

But yes, this was no "typical El Nino". No matter how warm it got in your backyard this weekend.

 

There should be a warming trend in the Valley around the 4th of March,maybe one last storm winter storm after this.But we live in the south remember.

 

Edit:Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE

[jaxjagman]

The NAM doesn't close the 500mb system off upcoming,so it tracks further to the SE,better snow chances for the Valley

[jaxjagman]

Who knows if which or any model is right,but the NAM is what you want to root for.We just need some colder air and this would be a nice storm for everyone,not big amounts for everyone,but we'd all see snow

[jaxjagman]

The NAM as well doesn't close off the 500mb,this should be a reason why it tracks further to the SE

[Runman292]

Who knows if which or any model is right,but the NAM is what you want to root for.We just need some colder air and this would be a nice storm for everyone,not big amounts for everyone,but we'd all see snow

Give me a couple inches and I'll be ecstatic at this point.

[jaxjagman]

Give me a couple inches and I'll be ecstatic at this point.

 

Give me a couple inches and I'll be ecstatic at this point.

Systems like this is where we miss the snow pack up N