Winter 2015-16

[PowellVolz]

I don't think you can blame that on el nino.

You're right but it'll save me in the long run from kicking my dog.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Carvers Gap]

Unless I am misreading it, the 12z GFS is a major break from continuity. Interesting set-up. Looking purely at the set-up and not snow totals....First storm is a Miller B of sorts, pulls down cold air, and the second storm(w more separation) heads up the coast as a weak Miller A. So much spread on the ensembles lately, there are multiple options on the table. Nothing screaming big snow as of yet. However, that solution is interesting for sure.

[Runman292]

12z UKMet is a continuation of the 0z run from last night. Cutter.

[ShawnEastTN]

Unrelated, really surprised MRX didn't pull the trigger on a wind advisory area wide.  I've had routine gusts around 35.

[Runman292]

Unrelated, really surprised MRX didn't pull the trigger on a wind advisory area wide. I've had routine gusts around 35.

Even the local news guys said to expect 30-35 mph gusts.

[JayCee]

Unrelated, really surprised MRX didn't pull the trigger on a wind advisory area wide.  I've had routine gusts around 35.

 

Over in the eastern areas, (southern Jefferson County), winds are pretty tame.  Just a breeze around 10-15 mph.  Interesting how different the weather can be over a short area.  I think most of the stronger winds seem to be Knoxville and areas north & west. 

[Runman292]

Has anyone seen what the 12z Euro run says?

[jaxjagman]

Has anyone seen what the 12z Euro run says?

Not a whole lot,colder though.No big storm though

[Carvers Gap]

Has anyone seen what the 12z Euro run says?

Similar to 12z GFS. Two storm set-up. Storm two is there and healthy...just no cold air. 996 mb low over the Carolina/Va border at 132. Is barely a Miller A as it looks like it could be the second storm in as many days per the Euro to have a chance at cutting west of the Apps. So, saying there is no storm is IMO incorrect. It is just not a snow producer for us.

[Runman292]

Similar to 12z GFS. Two storm set-up. Storm two is there and healthy...just no cold air. 996 mb low over the Carolina/Va border at 132. Is barely a Miller A as it looks like it could be the second storm in as many days per the Euro to have a chance at cutting west of the Apps. So, saying there is no storm is IMO incorrect. It is just not a snow producer for us.

I see. What a disappointing season.

[Carvers Gap]

12z EPS follows the two storm set-up. The second storm appears to be a Miller A, but it could be crossing the base of the Apps to get to western NC where it is at 994mb. Bruiser of a system, but warm. Some hint of snow over the Plateau, like 1-2" amounts. Vigorous system.

[Carvers Gap]

I see. What a disappointing season.

Lived in Knoxville during the moderate to strong Ninos of the 90s. Seemed like it was near miss after near miss. But...winter is not over. But always good to remember that looking at storms at d7 has its risks.

[Runman292]

Lived in Knoxville during the moderate to strong Ninos of the 90s. Seemed like it was near miss after near miss. But...winter is not over. But always good to remember that looking at storms at d7 has its risks.

My parents told me that in the 70s and 80s, when they saw snow, they never saw less than 2 inches on the ground in West Knoxville.

[Carvers Gap]

My parents told me that in the 70s and 80s, when they saw snow, they never saw less than 2 inches on the ground in West Knoxville.

True that. I have shared this often...I lived in Knoxville from 70-80. The winters that I can remember from the late 70s are unmatched. My expectation for winter has been deeply skewed due to this. LOL.

[John1122]

Knoxville had a massive expansion westward since the 1980s. This made the urban island heat footprint much larger and that effects a lot of that area. Look at how many events ended up being with very marginal temps in Knoxville where 1 degree makes a big difference. 

[Carvers Gap]

My parents told me that in the 70s and 80s, when they saw snow, they never saw less than 2 inches on the ground in West Knoxville.

 

Lived @ KTRI during the 80s and those winters were banner as well.  Pretty sure Knoxville had some nice winters also back then.  Moved back to Knoxville in the fall of 89 which was very cold...and then the snow basically stopped in the Valley while I was UT.  We rarely even had marginal events.   In banter you can see the snowfall amounts(maybe have been smoothed unnecessarily) and temps for Knoxville during the 90s.  Good discussion over there.  But most of those winters were moderate to strong Ninos - just makes it tough at lower elevations at that latitude in the Valley.  But again...winter is not over.  One final thing, until recent winters big snow makers from the GOM were relatively absent.  I think this has to do w/ the NAO staying positive during winter more often than not at key times.  The middle and southern areas of the Valley need a good -NAO.  In other words, strong blocking at high latitudes is needed for Chattanooga and Knoxville.  Interestingly, the first two weeks of March(admittedly getting late in the game) are hinting at some decent blocking. 

[Silas Lang]

True that. I have shared this often...I lived in Knoxville from 70-80. The winters that I can remember from the late 70s are unmatched. My expectation for winter has been deeply skewed due to this. LOL.

 

I wasn't alive then (born in 88), but my dad has spoke often of the snowy winters in the late 70s. He mentioned a bad ice storm that occurred at some point in the 70s where he had to walk home down the highway due to conditions and kept slipping and busting his butt. LOL This was in Anderson County (near Clinton), which is where I grew up as well.

 

Is there any particular storm data from this period? Would be interesting in looking at this time period of Winter in the valley.

[Carvers Gap]

I wasn't alive then (born in 88), but my dad has spoke often of the snowy winters in the late 70s. He mentioned a bad ice storm that occurred at some point in the 70s where he had to walk home down the highway due to conditions and kept slipping and busting his butt. LOL This was in Anderson County (near Clinton), which is where I grew up as well.

 

Is there any particular storm data from this period? Would be interesting in looking at this time period of Winter in the valley.

 

The storm data has been manipulated.  Just no other way to say it nicely.  KTRI's data is a mess.  One day KTRI's data showed one thing...the next day data was missing and/or smoothed.  I feel certain TYS's is a mess as well.  I moved to Florida(like living in purgatory) in '80 and missed the great ice storm.  It was legendary according to friends and relatives.  John has weather records for the Plateau that his grandfather diligently kept.  Nice heirloom and data source.  He probably has some decent records for the ice storm.

[Carvers Gap]

Looking ahead...check out this diving AO on the CPC teleconnection ensembles today.  PNA is positive and NAO positive, but nosing downward late in the period.  To me that is signalling a cold start to March.  A cold March w/ a strong Nino...will take that anytime, anywhere. But it is important to remember that latitude will matter w/ every passing day in March.

 

 

 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Para Euro takes the second storm well west. Snow axis is from southwest Mizzou to central Illinois to northwest Indiana to Michigan. The axis has moved 500+ miles northwest in 72 hrs of modeling. Jax, are we talking severe w the Para?

[Runman292]

The 12z Para Euro takes the second storm well west. Snow axis is from southwest Mizzou to central Illinois to northwest Indiana to Michigan. The axis has moved 500+ miles northwest in 72 hrs of modeling. Jax, are we talking severe w the Para?

If there is Severe weather, it will likely be west of the Plateau. In my experience, Severe thunderstorms are like snowstorms in East Tennessee, they are rarely significant.

[Carvers Gap]

If there is Severe weather, it will likely be west of the Plateau. In my experience, Severe thunderstorms are like snowstorms in East Tennessee, they are rarely significant.

You might be speaking to the wrong person on that one...recently(July 2014) spent approximately 20-25k via insurance to repair baseball to softball size hail damage to my house and cars in west Kingsport. We have had our fair share of severe in recent years. 2k came out of pocket. Brand new roof was totalled. Van had two windows broken. The dents in my two vehicles would have been less severe if they had been hit w a hammer. We had metal roofs in our neighborhood with holes in them. A few years before that, my sister's house in a Sullivan Gardens community was struck by hail damage that shredded the siding on her house and broke all of the frames and glass on the windows that were facing west. Sharp increase in the severity of storms up here. Tornado numbers have increased sharply.

[Runman292]

You might be speaking to the wrong person on that one...recently(July 2014) spent approximately 20-25k via insurance to repair baseball to softball size hail damage to my house and cars in west Kingsport. We have had our fair share of severe in recent years. 2k came out of pocket. Brand new roof was totalled. Van had two windows broken. The dents in my two vehicles would have been less severe if they had been hit w a hammer. We had metal roofs in our neighborhood with holes in them. A few years before that, my sister's house in a Sullivan Gardens community was struck by hail damage that shredded the siding on her house and broke all of the frames and glass on the windows that were facing west. Sharp increase in the severity of storms up here. Tornado numbers have increased sharply.

I'm sorry, I should have specified my comment. I was referring to Knoxville and surrounding areas in the Central Valley. It just seems to me that whenever a really bad storm rolls off the Plateau, it starts losing a lot of energy when it reaches the valley. I'm not saying every storm is like that, but it's been like that for the most part where I've lived.

[John1122]

I wasn't alive then (born in 88), but my dad has spoke often of the snowy winters in the late 70s. He mentioned a bad ice storm that occurred at some point in the 70s where he had to walk home down the highway due to conditions and kept slipping and busting his butt. LOL This was in Anderson County (near Clinton), which is where I grew up as well.

Is there any particular storm data from this period? Would be interesting in looking at this time period of Winter in the valley.

The massive ice storms were in 1982. Slow, long duration rain with temps in the low 20s here. December of 1998 was just as bad here. Think the Crossville ice storm from last year but over the whole area.

[Carvers Gap]

I'm sorry, I should have specified my comment. I was referring to Knoxville and surrounding areas in the Central Valley. It just seems to me that whenever a really bad storm rolls off the Plateau, it starts losing a lot of energy when it reaches the valley. I'm not saying every storm is like that, but it's been like that for the most part where I've lived.

No problem. Seems like Knoxville's severe always has a southwest to northeast component. Basically you all get severe when it comes "up" the Valley. We get a lot of MCC storms here that track from our northwest and then some of the "up the valley" tracks for storms.

[1234snow]

You might be speaking to the wrong person on that one...recently(July 2014) spent approximately 20-25k via insurance to repair baseball to softball size hail damage to my house and cars in west Kingsport. We have had our fair share of severe in recent years. 2k came out of pocket. Brand new roof was totalled. Van had two windows broken. The dents in my two vehicles would have been less severe if they had been hit w a hammer. We had metal roofs in our neighborhood with holes in them. A few years before that, my sister's house in a Sullivan Gardens community was struck by hail damage that shredded the siding on her house and broke all of the frames and glass on the windows that were facing west. Sharp increase in the severity of storms up here. Tornado numbers have increased sharply.

I remember that storm vividly. I was thinking that this is the one. We didn't have a garage at the time and I had a new car. I drove around before it hit and hid under a small garage type thing. Didn't know what was going to happen sitting underneath that small thing. The storm had a tornado with it as well that hit Rock Springs if I remember correctly. I didn't know where the tornado was because the 3G wasn't working and the signature was very close to the house. Scary storm for sure but we lucked out on the hail across the border.

[Runman292]

Anyone seen the 18z GFS? It's showing a very strong LP that looks like it could bring us severe thunderstorms on Wednesday evening, then snow showers/flurries on the back end on Thursday morning.

[jaxjagman]

 

MJO is on our side more than likely into the 1st week of March.It should fall into the COD something similar to what the Euro looks today.I believe with enso still going strong our last hope is during  this time frame for winter

[Carvers Gap]

I remember that storm vividly. I was thinking that this is the one. We didn't have a garage at the time and I had a new car. I drove around before it hit and hid under a small garage type thing. Didn't know what was going to happen sitting underneath that small thing. The storm had a tornado with it as well that hit Rock Springs if I remember correctly. I didn't know where the tornado was because the 3G wasn't working and the signature was very close to the house. Scary storm for sure but we lucked out on the hail across the border.

That is the one. Sounded like someone dropping bricks on my roof. Thankfully the rotation lifted up to get over Bays or I could have had monster hail going 100+mph. The claims guy for State Farm travels the country doing hail claims. Said he helped w one in Indiana where an F4 or F5 sent softball size hail rocketing through the side of a car and cracked the engine block. Took them three weeks to get our end of town covered. But anyway, don't see that in the extended...but a big storm cutting to Memphis makes me nervous. Renken mentioned severe just recently.

[Carvers Gap]

chi200.cfs.eqtr.png 809×907 .png

MJO is on our side more than likely into the 1st week of March.It should fall into the COD something similar to what the Euro looks today.I believe with enso still going strong our last hope is during this time frame for winter

Yep, winter's last stand in phase 8 should produce some winter storms to track. That AO falling is big as well.