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Winter 2015-16

Mr Bob

By Mr Bob,
in Tennessee Valley

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

It's comical to see such good verification scores from the Euro and Euro Parallel modeling at day 5 when you look at the low placements and see such a tremendous spread just beyond day 5.  I know the scores are based on the 500 level, but you'd think the surface reflections would be a little tighter and not so spread out with 95%+ verification scores at 500mb.  

 

Tough forecast coming up with marginally cold air means someone likely gets snow, but determining where might not be much better than tossing a dart at a dartboard of the eastern US.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

WPC forecasts keep looking pretty good with track and having weak HP over the Lakes. In their latest disco they mention lack of cold air in place allowing for less wintry precip. But mention wintry precip possible from the Apps to the Upper Ohio Valley to New England.

Temps are definitely marginal. Going to need that storm to really deepen and take our chances...would cause heights to crash in the northwest quadrant, but might also cause an Apps runner. The EPS really can't "decide" to go to the Piedmont or TN Valley judging by the spread in low placements. I think the UKMET sums up the predicament...nice slp over Louisiana. Which way does it go? If it heads for the Piedmont, could make for a very cold rain or power line cutting heavy, wet snow. I think it has a chance to be sub 990 at our latitude wherever it may be...

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

In looking at the EPS, it appears there is a very small cluster of lows that tries to move toward the lakes but dies out before getting there. Between days 6 and 7 there does appear to be solutions that have lakes lows, but they are solutions that take a low from the gulf region due north.........  lol.  

 

I don't think the solutions with a lakes low will be correct this time, unless it gets there by coming out of the southern branch taking the path of least resistance between a departing high and another high sliding down, but too far west to have an influence.

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Runman292

Runman292

Posted
Posted

Here's the AFD from MRX. Sounds like they aren't too high on wintry precipitation next week.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD...ALOFT WE ARE UNDER A ZONAL FLOW

TO SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE AREA...AND AT THE SURFACE WE HAVE A

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH SITS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC

COAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA

AROUND SUNDAY EVENING...AND WE STAY IN THE COOL AIR THROUGH THE

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND

MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE

SHORTWAVE INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE

FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY ABOUT

TUESDAY...THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST UP

THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN WE ARE ALREADY GETTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS

BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP SOME

POPS THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST. GOING A LITTLE BELOW

GUIDANCE FOR NEXT THURSDAY...AS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE

SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING OUT BY THEN. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME <20 POPS

IN THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THE MODELS SEEM TO BE GETTING WARMER AND WARMER NOW FOR THE SYSTEM

NEXT WEEK...AND LEAVE THE TROUGH AS AN OPEN AND WEAKER WAVE. SO

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINTRY PRECIP IS IN THIS FORECAST FOR THE

SYSTEM NEXT WEEK AS OF NOW.

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PowellVolz

PowellVolz

Posted
Posted

No kidding. 2' in the coastal plain of South Carolina. Storm chasing and the beach all in one trip. Thinking the models are catching on to the MJO and SOI situation.

I'm all for a big snow but dang, 2' wouldn't be fun to deal with.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Runman292

Runman292

Posted
Posted

In their latest AFD, MRX is like "Why are people talking about a potential winter storm?"

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES AS A WEAK FRONT

TRIES TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. INITIALLY BEST

CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA AS MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN

EXPECTED. THE FRONT FINALLY GETS A PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA

SUNDAY WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD AHEAD OF

THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL. THE FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS

BUT MOVES THROUGH BY MONDAY ALTHOUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE

DEVELOPS OVER THE LA COAST WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE BACK OVER THE

FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO MOVE

NORTHEAST ACROSS MS THEN AL AND GA THEN THE CAROLINAS. COLDER AIR

WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NE WITH GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLDER NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES IN THE

MOUNTAINS WILL BRING THE RISK FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS

MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO

EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM FINALLY

MOVES NE EARLY THURSDAY. IMPROVING WEATHER FRIDAY BUT WITH UPPER

TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD HIGHS REMAIN COOL IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

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ShawnEastTN

ShawnEastTN

Posted
Posted

12Z GFS isnt so bad...  Warm surface yes, but cold upper levels, track in good position for this time frame when factoring in NW jog and under modeled precip shield.  Plus a low over Lake Ontario which is an OK position for a Low in the lakes with  High near Lake Superior.  Looks like GFS wants both a Low and a High in the lakes in different locations across the lakes region.

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