Winter 2015-16

[John1122]

WPC surface maps from 11pm last night still look encouraging to my eye.

 

 

[John1122]

Also from WPC. These may change as the day wears on and the maps update.

 

 

[Chuckcna]

0z euro showed snow on the plateau and mountains warm nose in valley 06 gfs pushes system further out in Atlantic temps in tn don't get below the 40's with now snow gfs isnall over the place last 2 days Canadian model at 0z showed us getting rain somewhat like the gfs euro has been main one showing snow in tn we shall see hope for snow kids would love it.

[Stovepipe]

Also from WPC. These may change as the day wears on and the maps update.

I did not realize WPC put out maps like that, neat. I'll have to start checking those.

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[Carvers Gap]

Euro at 0z (including the EPS) and GFS at 6z show little support for a winter storm. With cold air lacking, it is all about the track. The tracks this AM are not favorable. That said, we are six days out w a long ways to go. Storms are often lost and refound w/in the 5-7 day window. Just tough to say with any confidence what the weather is going to do one week away.

[Carvers Gap]

MRX this AM...

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN

HANDLING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT FORMS ON THE

FRONT AND MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF...AND NOW TRACK

IT MORE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. WITH THIS MORE

NORTHWESTERN TRACK...WE SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RAIN FOR MONDAY AND

ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. COLDER AIR PUSHING IN ON THE BACK SIDE MAY

CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY

OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS OF

PRECIP TYPE STILL LOW THAT FAR OUT GIVEN EXPECTED LATER CHANGES IN

EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.

[JayCee]

On the bright side, we still have our mild weekend ahead.  With only a 20-40% chance of rain, at least we can get outdoors and ignore bad computer model runs that would be depressing to look at. 

[Stovepipe]

On the bright side, we still have our mild weekend ahead.  With only a 20-40% chance of rain, at least we can get outdoors and ignore bad computer model runs that would be depressing to look at. 

 

[PowellVolz]

Man this winter is painful.

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[tnweathernut]

Man this winter is painful.

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The funny thing is, there are multiple locations having an above average winter in our state so far with still several weeks left to score one more.

[Runman292]

12z GFS has a favorable track for a Winter Storm, but there's a LP in the Great Lakes.

[PowellVolz]

Yeah from Nashville north across I-40 to the east has had a nice winter to about Crossville. Then from Morristown to north and east has faired well. Knoxville folks have been given the middle finger.

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[Runman292]

Replace the LP with a HP in the GL, and you have a great 12z GFS run.

[PowellVolz]

Replace the LP with a HP in the GL, and you have a great 12z GFS run.

If the Euro continues to show a H in the GL region I'll roll with that for now. I've learned the hard way to trust the Euro, EPS and Ukie when they are close, especially when they pop a storm first in the LR.

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[Mandra76]

12 gfs is showing winter with a vengeance the first week of march

[Mandra76]

12 gfs is showing winter with a vengeance the first week of march

[Runman292]

12 gfs is showing winter with a vengeance the first week of march

Not just the first week of March. The last few days of February has a major ice storm in the South, then a major Snowstorm in the South in early March. Of course, this is fantasy at this point.

[Carvers Gap]

12 gfs is showing winter with a vengeance the first week of march

Yes it did. Has the potential to be a couple of great weeks of winter weather, late Feb to mid-March. Crashing SOI and phase 8 of the MJO bout to get to work.

[jaxjagman]

Yes it did. Has the potential to be a couple of great weeks of winter weather, late Feb to mid-Jan. Crashing SOI and phase 8 of the MJO bout to get to work.

It has some legs to it

[dwagner88]

Yeah from Nashville north across I-40 to the east has had a nice winter to about Crossville. Then from Morristown to north and east has faired well. Knoxville folks have been given the middle finger.

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Well at least you don't live here. I don't think I even have an inch total for the season even though it has snowed on like 7 different days. What a tease.

[Wurbus]

What is the Euro looking like for next week's storm?

[tnweathernut]

What is the Euro looking like for next week's storm?

Favorable track, temperatures marginal.  Track from the northern gulf coast area to off the outer banks.  I don't have detailed maps though, they are slow coming out on weatherbell.  All I have access to are Amwx.

[Wurbus]

Favorable track, temperatures marginal.  Track from the northern gulf coast area to off the outer banks.  I don't have detailed maps though, they are slow coming out on weatherbell.  All I have access to are Amwx.

Thanks. A favorable track is all we can ask for at this point! Even if this storm doesn't pan out, should be an interesting start to March!

[Runman292]

To add to the GFS and Euro, the Canadian now has a favorable track. However, just like the GFS, there's a low in the GL.

[tnweathernut]

Thanks. A favorable track is all we can ask for at this point! Even if this storm doesn't pan out, should be an interesting start to March!

I think the partial reason it's a good track is because it stays weak.  If there had been a a stronger phase it would have been further west.

[PowellVolz]

Well at least you don't live here. I don't think I even have an inch total for the season even though it has snowed on like 7 different days. What a tease.

I guess I can't complain to much. I've had 2, 3" snows and a couple heavy flurry events but missing out on a couple big event makes you forget about the other snows.

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[Carvers Gap]

12z suite tracks are much better than 0z. Did any model have an Apps runner? Looks like all Miller As. Warm temps. Really, this may not be sorted out until the energy is sampled better. Track is all I care about right now. Good trends at 12z.

[Carvers Gap]

I think the partial reason it's a good track is because it stays weak. If there had been a a stronger phase it would have been further west.

Also, if the pattern is a bit more progressive the phase may occur more eastward. The Euro is notorious for being slow in its progression. Its snow axis today is east of the Apps. Big shift and positive for the easterb Valley as it gives room for a northwest jog. Really could not have asked for much more...but agree that where that phase occurs is important as usual. This storm has a chance to really crank so we need it way east of here.

[tnweathernut]

The biggest question in my mind regarding the Euro today is whether it's portrayal of a high in the lakes vs. a low in the lakes shown on other guidance is correct.  That will have huge implications for virtually every solution.

[Carvers Gap]

The biggest question in my mind regarding the Euro today is whether it's portrayal of a high in the lakes vs. a low in the lakes shown on other guidance is correct. That will have huge implications for virtually every solution.

Very true. But if the reverse were true(Euro w low in the Lakes and all others w hp), I would probably side w the Euro. Either way, the models are pretty warm. Going to have to hope for a big storm(likely I think) and then maybe catch a break w the track.