Winter 2015-16

[Stormcatt]

Not really surprised at the euro OP track given the spread still within the eps although the 00z eps made a big shift SE . Will be interesting to see the 12z eps here in a few

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[John1122]

The key to cold/precip type/track will be a decent high in the lakes. We're probably good if there is one. If it's a high in New England or ots, look for a rainy repeat of what we just saw this week, as there won't be fresh arctic air in place.

[Reb]

Eps control clobbers ETN

[tnweathernut]

25/51 individual members give SOME part of TN more than 4 inches and in many of those cases much more than 4.

[Carvers Gap]

Both the mean and the control tracks are textbook E TN snow producers. Two part system modeled vs the Miller B on the op. Basically, sends out system one and the caboose brings the hammer. That takes a lot of moving pieces out of play compared to the OP. The EPS is a scenario that depends on track and does not have a low tracking into the Valley that fouls the thermal profile.

Edit: Which scenario is easier is open to interpretation.

[franklin NCwx]

Both the mean and the control tracks are textbook E TN snow producers. Two part system modeled vs the Miller B on the op. Basically, sends out system one and the caboose brings the hammer. That takes a lot of moving pieces out of play compared to the OP. The EPS is a scenario that depends on track and does not have a low tracking into the Valley that fouls the thermal profile.

Edit: Which scenario is easier is open to interpretation.

this is what the 0spare eps shows, 12z Gfs para too. I think that is our best option.we get a weak low that rides the boundary as rain, then a phase with the 2nd wave.

[PowellVolz]

While I'll take whatever works, I'm not a fan of a Miller B and I hate having to rely on dynamics for cooling, especially at lower elevations in the valley.

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[tnweathernut]

While I'll take whatever works, I'm not a fan of a Miller B and I hate having to rely on dynamics for cooling, especially at lower elevations in the valley.

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It's not really a Miller B as much as it is just a two part system, with the lead system fairly juicy but warm and the follower bringing the wintry possibilities.

[Carvers Gap]

this is what the 0spare eps shows, 12z Gfs para too. I think that is our best option.we get a weak low that rides the boundary as rain, then a phase with the 2nd wave.

There have been some wild solutions over the past 24 hours. The solutions that grab energy from the southern GOM and go due north are pretty wild...but getting to a realistic solution is the next step.

[Carvers Gap]

Welp, either way it looks like the GOM is open for business along w/ phase 8 of the MJO and a crashing SOI.  Throw in a strong PNA ridge and a falling AO.  Might be a fun end to winter. 

 

edit:  time frame is last week of Feb to mid-March

[Chuckcna]

The 18 gfs puts a low right below Chattanooga at 144 then 150 drops it to the gulf the ends up off the sc coast not a good thing for snow

[PowellVolz]

The 18 gfs puts a low right below Chattanooga at 144 then 150 drops it to the gulf the ends up off the sc coast not a good thing for snow

What MB is the low south of Chatt?

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[Chuckcna]

What MB is the low south of Chatt?

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1005 mb

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Para Euro has the caboose scenario.  Snow axis is from just north of New Orleans(yep, you heard that correctly) through much of the TN Valley along the Apps into Maine.  The signal for a strong SE storm is found on every model of the 12z suite.

[franklin NCwx]

Two wave idea has merit

[Carvers Gap]

Two wave idea has merit

 

18z is this...basically trails a piece of energy behind the initial low.  As it develops south of the low out in front, the caboose takes over and roars up the coast.  Straight-up Miller A.  If you didn't have slides in smaller increments, it looks like a handoff of energy.  But really, it is the trailing piece of energy that does the trick.  Now, we have to ask the question...Is it right?  Sometimes models incorrectly "blow-up" the trailer.  Can't tell right now.  But the Euro sniffed this out, so have to think it might be onto something.  Man, there are some very strong solutions out there to be seven days out. 

[Carvers Gap]

I might add as well...still seven days away.  That is 14 Euro model runs and 28 GFS runs.  This is going to oscillate between many solutions.  The thing to watch is to see if the Euro and GFS lock-in w/ this system.  Sometimes w/ big storms, they will lock-in at this time frame.  But most times, not.  So, don't get your hopes up at this point.  If we are lucky enough to track another monster this winter, count your blessings.  

[ShawnEastTN]

I might add as well...still seven days away.  That is 14 Euro model runs and 28 GFS runs.  This is going to oscillate between many solutions.  The thing to watch is to see if the Euro and GFS lock-in w/ this system.  Sometimes w/ big storms, they will lock-in at this time frame.  But most times, not.  So, don't get your hopes up at this point.  If we are lucky enough to track another monster this winter, count your blessings.  

Absolutely we have to be cautious in our enthusiasm.  I do though want to draw some comparisons to this and the last storm a few days ago.  While in both scenarios the models were starting to show a storm, at this point in tracking the GFS was at times not showing a storm at all, really only the Canadian and Euro were consistent in showing a storm at this point out.  This one every major model has a storm, that to me is reason to be cautiously optimistic of something brewing.  Its not often (not even every winter) that all the major models pick up a storm at this distance all together.  Now we have a our variables in track but again compare to the storm a few days ago the tracks were GL cutter to OTS and everything in between.  Currently really the only variables in track are up the Apps and up the coast and everything in between.  Much smaller margin of distance.  I'm beginning to feel a bit more optimistic of a storm.  If we can keep this modeled to inside 5 days which is only a couple more days of model runs, then my optimism will jump quite a lot.  

[Carvers Gap]

Absolutely we have to be cautious in our enthusiasm. I do though want to draw some comparisons to this and the last storm a few days ago. While in both scenarios the models were starting to show a storm, at this point in tracking the GFS was at times not showing a storm at all, really only the Canadian and Euro were consistent in showing a storm at this point out. This one every major model has a storm, that to me is reason to be cautiously optimistic of something brewing. Its not often (not even every winter) that all the major models pick up a storm at this distance all together. Now we have a our variables in track but again compare to the storm a few days ago the tracks were GL cutter to OTS and everything in between. Currently really the only variables in track are up the Apps and up the coast and everything in between. Much smaller margin of distance. I'm beginning to feel a bit more optimistic of a storm. If we can keep this modeled to inside 5 days which is only a couple more days of model runs, then my optimism will jump quite a lot.

Agree on all counts that today was a big day from the standpoint of models showing a strong SE storm signal, even noted that myself in a post earlier. But for every big storm that verifies at day 7 on the models, I can probably name ten that didn't. The models were in relative agreement last winter for 2'+ totals over the Piedmont w just hours to go, and that didn't materialize. Thus, my caveat. Also note that I did say that often models will see a big storm from many days away and lock-in. But models can be pretty sketchy even at 24 hours. So, still a long ways to go, but(and this is a big but) I share your enthusiasm albeit guardedly.

[jdrenken]

 

 

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0315 AM CST WED FEB 17 2016

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...

A QUASI-ZONAL...LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN ON DAY 4/SATURDAY WILL

SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME AS A

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO

THE OHIO VALLEY BY DAY5/SUNDAY EVENING. THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH EAST

OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE

ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS A

RESULT...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST STATES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS DAY

5/SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF COAST

STATES AND SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH DAY

7/TUESDAY AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE

NORTHERN GULF COAST INTENSIFIES...AND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD COASTAL

SC/NC. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO

DIFFERENCES AMONGST VARIOUS MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IN SURFACE LOW

STRENGTH AND LOCATION IN THE DAY 6/7 TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...TRENDS

FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN COMING DAYS.

..LEITMAN.. 02/17/2016

[jdrenken]

Severe Weather? Say It Isn’t So!

[Carvers Gap]

From MRX this evening...

 

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLDER AIR FILTERS BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING ABOUT 10 DEGREES...BUT STAYING A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE GULF STATES. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THROWING MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPS INTO THE AREA. KEPT
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED. MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY FROM RUN TO RUN ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE
TRACK. MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING IN A GENERAL DIRECTION UP THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH THAT TRACK...FLOW WILL TRANSITION
OUT OF THE NORTH...WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN AND SNOW POSSIBLE.
LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN CHANCE FOR SNOW IS GOING TO BE WEDNESDAY...BUT
OF COURSE THIS IS TOO FAR OUT TO SAY WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE.

[ShawnEastTN]

The severe weather threat is also a good indicator of a potent storm on the horizon.  Most of our biggest winter storms had severe weather components, especially tornadoes in the deep south.  Not to use it as an analog because there will only ever be one Blizzard of 93, but man it had crazy severe weather in the deep south especially FL.

[dwagner88]

The 18 gfs puts a low right below Chattanooga at 144 then 150 drops it to the gulf the ends up off the sc coast not a good thing for snow

Yeah temps were way too warm for snow at all major reporting sites in TN on the 18Z.  Even the 12Z was too warm at the surface for everyone except KTRI, and even there it was only the tail end of precip. I've been burned too many times already this winter. I'll believe this one when it starts snowing and not a minute before.

[Chuckcna]

00z gfs just crushed all chances of snow 24th has lp going right over east tn then shoots to Maryland then nj hope it changes back would really love some snow but as of right now not looking promising.

[Runman292]

00z gfs just crushed all chances of snow 24th has lp going right over east tn then shoots to Maryland then nj hope it changes back would really love some snow but as of right now not looking promising.

Let's see what the Euro says.

[John1122]

00z gfs just crushed all chances of snow 24th has lp going right over east tn then shoots to Maryland then nj hope it changes back would really love some snow but as of right now not looking promising.

I think it looks above average. As long as there's a storm in the south the chances are okay, especially this far out. The GFS has a low in the lakes as it often does this year. The Euro has a high in the lakes, so the solution ends up looking much better on there. 

 

Long way to go and the window is open for anything from a track across mid-state to a track across the Outer Banks imo.

[jaxjagman]

Severe Weather? Say It Isn’t So!

Missed the flat flow here on the 21st.Thought we had a chance at some better storms.Just see some KI and a bit of SHO,other than that, nothing to see.Should be a better chance of some t-storms in the Southern Valley.DP'S keep creeping up, especially the SW parts.But that was a good call by the looks towards down south towards the Gulf states upcoming.

[Daniel Boone]

As far as the 0z Gfs, it's wanting to shoot the lp up the great valley similar to the last system. Unfortunately , that is an option, as most on here know as the terrain does create a pathway up the valley when HP is to our ne and lp to the nw as there's that vacuum of sorts, as the HP tends to stretch down East of the Apps.

However, the Mjo should be moving into phase 8. So, hopefully it'll have some influence, although it may not if there's a lag.

Best case would be to not have a pesky lp to our nw. HP there would be ideal.

[Runman292]

So, what does the 0z Euro show tonight?