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Winter 2015-16

Mr Bob

By Mr Bob,
in Tennessee Valley

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Eps looks good. Clearly two camps though cutter/apps runner vs Miller A

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Agree on all counts. The control looks pretty w/ nearly 2' amounts in southwest VA and 10+" for a good portion of the eastern Valley and Plateau, not as much in Chatt. Whole lot of spread which one would expect this far out...The one thing that does catch my eye is the number of lows this time in the GOM . But make no mistake, definitely a decent number of lows to the north and northwest of the mean. Might be some of those lows on the southern extent are impacting the mean. Pretty strong signal for a Miller A...but it was for this last system as well, but this particular storm has individuals that balance out the track.

For those new to the board, this is only discussing the EPS(Euro ensemble) and is not a forecast. There is a chance during this time frame which is centered around day 7. However, this is also the time frame where the Euro likes to lose storms as well. So, just take this w/ a grain of salt. Interestingly, it moves very slowly (not my observation but someone else's). We are only about 2.5 days before the leading edge impacting the Valley shows up on the NAM. Ha!

Clown maps don't mean much at this point. Biggest thing is the track. Cutter? Miller B? Miller A? Based purely on the 12z EPS, I would guess that the track would be northwest of the mean. Something to keep an eye on... If this was d10, I wouldn't even discuss it.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Just so folks don't think we are hyping next Tuesday...MRX weighs in every so slightly for early next week...

 

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
QUIET WEATHER IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS A
WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PROMOTING SUNNIER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM KENTUCKY COULD BRING IN SOME CLOUD
COVER INITIALLY FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
INITIALLY FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE SOUTHWEST WINDS HELP TO WARM THINGS
UP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT
LOOKS TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
INITIALLY ON SATURDAY... BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH AND STALLING OVER
AL/GA. THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT BACK NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN...AND POTENTIALLY SNOW HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...SHOULD THE CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS HOLD. STAY TUNED!

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Wurbus

Wurbus

Posted
Posted

Looks like 18z GFS is developing a Miller A storm as well. It has the low tracking through southern Alabama & Georgia and then going up the coast. Not much snow for east TN this run, but a good trend overall and still an extremely long ways to go. If the Euro is still showing this in a couple days I'll start getting excited again.

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Stormcatt

Stormcatt

Posted
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Agree on all counts. The control looks pretty w/ nearly 2' amounts in southwest VA and 10+" for a good portion of the eastern Valley and Plateau, not as much in Chatt. Whole lot of spread which one would expect this far out...The one thing that does catch my eye is the number of lows this time in the GOM . But make now mistake, definitely a decent number of lows to the north and northwest of the mean. Might be some of those lows on the southern extent are impacting the mean. Pretty strong signal for a Miller A...but it was for this last system as well, but this particular storm has individuals that balance out the track.

For those new to the board, this is only discussing the EPS(Euro ensemble) and is not a forecast. There is a chance during this time frame which is centered around day 7. However, this is also the time frame where the Euro likes to lose storms as well. So, just take this w/ a grain of salt. Interestingly, it moves very slowly (not my observation but someone else's). We are only about 2.5 days before the leading edge impacting the Valley shows up on the NAM. Ha!

Clown maps don't mean much at this point. Biggest thing is the track. Cutter? Miller B? Miller A? Based purely on the 12z EPS, I would guess that the track would be northwest of the mean. Something to keep an eye on... If this was d10, I wouldn't even discuss it.

Great points all around . Another thing to consider is if we et a phased system it would more than likely yank west . Some of the most NW eps low plots are beasts and clears amped to no end. I think another thing to consider is closed low. Nothing shows that at this point but o could easily see something like that playing out as well

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

I'm guessing the low in the Great Lakes on the GFS isn't on the Euro. Correct?

 

Nope, there's a high where the low is on the GFS that presses down over the Great Lakes. The storm just crawls along the Gulf Coast then across south Georgia up into South Carolina and puts basically Nashville to Birmingham or so and points east in the comma head for hours and dumps heavy snow over a huge part of the Tennessee valley.

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John1122

John1122

Posted
Posted

EPS has a cluster of lows in the area where the OP has a low at 156 and another several south of the OP. At 168 the lows are also clustered near the Op and just south of the Op. The means show snow over almost the entire deep south, though in small amounts, reflecting those further south low clusters. Some of the individual members are so far south there's nothing. Some give West Tennessee/Missouri a big event. Some reflect the op.

 

 

Control has a gulf low, also south of the OP and hammers most of North Carolina with 6 to 12+ inches.

 

I'm more comfortable with the general mean being to south of us for now. The Euro has been running things way south at 3-7 days out for a while now and invariably working north, usually ending up too far north for most of us during these gulf storms.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Posted

The EPS has the system right where we want it at this range. It has room to strengthen and pull northwest. Going to take some patience, but it seems like that jog northwest happens once the energy is finally over NA or just as it nears the West coast. If the EPS reflected the op, I would be less encouraged. While the op looked good, the northwest trend would make it less than ideal. We still may be too close. Long ways to go...

Edit: FWIW, the EPS moved sunstantially SE even when looking at the various low positions. So much so that the main options are Miller A or a lesser option OTS if the trend continues(but doubt that).

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ShawnEastTN

ShawnEastTN

Posted
Posted

Hard to ask for much more than this. Low in the Gulf, High in the Lakes, trowel directly into Tennessee.

 

9mhwbg_conus.gif

 

9nhwbg_conus.gif

I will take that WPC forecast every day of the week.  A few things though as have already been mentioned a Low in the great lakes can ruin it all together, second GFS always under models the northern precip shield, third, though we say it every year like it novel to that year only, there is nearly always a NW jog in low position closer to storm.  With all that said its encouraging to see WPC forecasting favorable track and favorable High placement this far out.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

12z GFS was very euro like with its track. Low explodes out of the NE gulf

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Yes it does. Long ways to go. Para Euro looked like the EPS control. Good sign. Needs to be a bit SE. This one is a bit too close as the trend would prob be northwest. But still...988mb slp. WxBell shows 4-6" for E TN for the 12z GFS, but that track and that slp strenght would produce a significant storm w far bigger totals than it soit out, Still like 24 GFS runs before the event. Take all of this discussion w a huge grain of salt.

post-769-0-14093600-1455727566_thumb.jpg

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Yea just need a slight NW jog to includ Middle TN folks!

 

NW jog and I am rain.  LOL.  But have to think that precip shield is a bit underdone at this point.  Even the snow output on WxBell is a bit underwhelming.  But a 988 low track is very impressive.  The closer that we get to spring the more amped these storms can get.  Strong signal for a Miller A...but that sounds just like the discussion for this last storm that went to straight up the Apps.  Right now, tracks range from Charleston, SC, to northwest Georgia.  It is fun to watch, but still so many things to nail down...not even sure cold air is in place right now.  But one would think that type of low would take care of the cold issue in the northwest quadrant.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Posted

Not sure honestly if would even be cold enough in Middle TN if could get a NW jog but yea, I feel for you. Still early in the game at this point!

No problem, man. Biggest thing right now is a very good signal for a strong SE storm. No firm idea on the track. The Para Euro is way SE. Lots of options at this point. A more northwest track does have merit.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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Posted

The 12z euro is much further north than 00z tracks through central bama and Georgia off the NC coast . It's also faster

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Does send a reflection up the eastern Valley.  Looks almost identical to this past system and even the DC blizzard.  The secondary over the Panhandle is the key.  How strong does it get?  The Euro is adamant that a secondary forms somewhere close to that region.  It seems to be the only model capable of modeling that scenario.  That requires superior physics.  Crazy that we have a weather model in existence that can model a hand-off from Chatt to south-central Georgia.  High pressure is over the GL for once.  So, there may be a limit to how far this can pull west.  Is beginning to look very Miller-Bish.  Spring is the wild card, and it may still shake-up this track. 

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