Winter 2015-16

[Stovepipe]

Y'all would like the Euro para.

Nut, I have noticed the same with regards to 12z 0z. The 0z Euro ensembles Hanes nice deep negatively tilted trough in the sweet spot for us.

 

Wow, no kiddin!  0z Euro parallel has 10 to 14 inches from the Tennessee River in the west eastward with a tiny strip up the eastern valley of 5 to 6 inches.  West TN with 4 to 7, north AL and north GA 2 to 5 south to north. 

 

I'm loving the consistency of the Euro lately, just hope we can avoid ice.

[weathertree4u]

Wow, no kiddin! 0z Euro parallel has 10 to 14 inches from the Tennessee River in the west eastward with a tiny strip up the eastern valley of 5 to 6 inches. West TN with 4 to 7, north AL and north GA 2 to 5 south to north.

I'm loving the consistency of the Euro lately, just hope we can avoid ice.

Where can I get those snowfall maps?

[franklin NCwx]

Wow, no kiddin! 0z Euro parallel has 10 to 14 inches from the Tennessee River in the west eastward with a tiny strip up the eastern valley of 5 to 6 inches. West TN with 4 to 7, north AL and north GA 2 to 5 south to north.

I'm loving the consistency of the Euro lately, just hope we can avoid ice.

I'll cash out with it now. I like the look of the ensemble mean 5h track. It would imply a storm running up inside the coast of the Carolina's.

[franklin NCwx]

Where can I get those snowfall maps?

wxbell

[weathertree4u]

wxbell

Great. Thx

[Carvers Gap]

Great. Thx

 

weathertree4u...You can pay by the month on wxbell.  I am just going to use it until winter is over and re-up next winter.  The model center on AmWx is cheaper from a pricing standpoint and is high quality from what I hear.  Not sure if you have subscription, but wxbell has a lot of other great model tools as well.  

[weathertree4u]

weathertree4u...You can pay by the month on wxbell. I am just going to use it until winter is over and re-up next winter. The model center on AmWx is cheaper from a pricing standpoint and is high quality from what I hear. Not sure if you have subscription, but wxbell has a lot of other great model tools as well.

Yea, I have subscription, great site wasn't aware it was on there. Is this the first run it was showing this or have there been enough consistently to say there is a threat. I know that much snow would put Nashvegas past 20" for season which hasn't happened couple decades

[Stovepipe]

Yea, I have subscription, great site wasn't aware it was on there. Is this the first run it was showing this or have there been enough consistently to say there is a threat. I know that much snow would put Nashvegas past 20" for season which hasn't happened couple decades

 

I've been getting wxbell a couple of months every winter just for their Euro maps and charts.  AmericanWX model center I keep year round as I think it is better for everything else.  The interface is slicker and I like the graphic style of the maps.  I'd gladly pay more money to have a model center with a beefed up Euro package and ditch wxbell for good.  Just my opinion.

 

Regarding the parallel, I forget to check it until someone mentions it so I can't say if it has been consistent or how it has verified this season.

[weathertree4u]

I've been getting wxbell a couple of months every winter just for their Euro maps and charts. AmericanWX model center I keep year round as I think it is better for everything else. The interface is slicker and I like the graphic style of the maps. I'd gladly pay more money to have a model center with a beefed up Euro package and ditch wxbell for good. Just my opinion.

Regarding the parallel, I forget to check it until someone mentions it so I can't say if it has been consistent or how it has verified this season.[/quot

Never had the americanwx stuff but no complaints with weatherbell

[Carvers Gap]

Yea, I have subscription, great site wasn't aware it was on there. Is this the first run it was showing this or have there been enough consistently to say there is a threat. I know that much snow would put Nashvegas past 20" for season which hasn't happened couple decades

 

Like franklin said earlier, it has been on the op since last Friday at 12z and now the 0z this AM.  Ensembles have had it for about a week.  Normally, I don't get to excited until inside of 120.  Still seven days to go.  This is also about the stage where models can lose a storm only to get it back in a couple of days.  It is nice to see the Canadian and UKIE on board.  Until today, it was basically just the Euro if I remember correctly.  Still a long ways to go.

[Carvers Gap]

Not the big snow totals, but the 12z GFS moved to a similar solution after a strung out look earlier. 

[tnweathernut]

Not the big snow totals, but the 12z GFS moved to a similar solution after a strung out look earlier. 

Agreed, another step.  The high holds nicely and the wave coming across beefs up the snow totals further south and east.  In fact, it shows 2-4 inches across much of northern AL and northern GA.

[Stovepipe]

12z GFS snow:

 

[Carvers Gap]

12z UKMET forces the low to dig deeper and allows more warm air out in front.  Slower as well.  Second low exists over the northern Plains as well as a stronger lobe of cold air over HB.  Amplifies the trough in the norther Plains... Not a great run.

[John1122]

Canadian was a mauler for the entire valley for the most part. The clowns will likely be very impressive from it.

[Stovepipe]

Canadian was a mauler for the entire valley for the most part. The clowns will likely be very impressive from it.

 

Dang son...

 

[Carvers Gap]

Canadian was a mauler for the entire valley for the most part. The clowns will likely be very impressive from it.

 

Yep, the Canadian was massive.  Big lollipop over your house of 15". 

[Stovepipe]

The surface temps were sketchy on that Canadian run, like freezing line up in Kentucky, but we'll worry about that later.

[Carvers Gap]

And what is crazy...the Canadian could have been bigger.  Forms the low over the EC vs the inland runner like the 0z Euro.  If that low were to track inland(would change the axis of snow just a bit), could have been a monster hit over the eastern Valley.  The HP slides off a bit too fast for that, but on the 0z Euro it didn't.

[John1122]

I'd happily take 50 percent of the Canadian. I still feel like we're setting up for ice though. We will see, just hope there's an actual storm at this point.

[BullCityWx]

[Carvers Gap]

Nice run by the 12z Canadian, but if the Euro is like the 12z UKMET...that is a quick no go.  Sometimes the UMKET gives a hint at the Euro run. 

[John1122]

The surface temps were sketchy on that Canadian run, like freezing line up in Kentucky, but we'll worry about that later.

 

It got my area to a max of 33 but after the snow is gone for the most part. At the height of the snow temps are below freezing for all of East Tennessee, 850s are good for everyone but extreme SE Tn.

[Stovepipe]

Another view of that historic run:

 

 

Nice knowing you Anderson County!

[John1122]

GFES with a much improved look. 2-3 inch mean for most of us. 

[John1122]

WPC now has a classic miller A track forecast. Low from Southern Louisiana up to the outer banks Day 6 to 7.

[Stovepipe]

Look like the 12z Euro is setting up the goods by hour 132...

[Stovepipe]

Entire state is 3-5 inches by hour 144, western half of TN is 6-10 inches, wow.

[jaxjagman]

euro went wild..99 frozen BNA and still going

[John1122]

Weak wave/over running event that will wallop the entire Valley region or close to it. Great run of the Euro there. Also advertises an inch or so on Friday for parts of the area too just by eye balling msl maps.