Winter 2015-16

[tnweathernut]

The 12z UK and CMC have a pretty good look heading into the late weekend, early next week period.  The Canadian model seems to indicate a pretty good overrunning setup.  It's really unfortunate we don't have blocking so it's a moist wsw flow attacking a large, but departing high pressure.  Still paints a pretty snow map for much of east TN and western NC.  It actually has the look of an I-40 system for central TN too, though way too early to even look at it.  All in all, a good general look.  

 

The UKMet might actually look better at 144 with a developing low pressure in Texas and a big sprawling high centered over the Great Lakes (I think I need to clap just because there isn't a low there, lol)  If it played out like that I'd definitely be excited in the CAD areas of NC and maybe SC.  For us, we'd definitely have to worry about how much cold can hang in there and a warm nose at some point, but in general I am encouraged as the 12z GFS was not much to get excited about. in the next 6-7 days.

[Stovepipe]

The 12z Euro is sexy for day 7.  All of Tennessee is 4 to 6 inches with the exception of a 2 inch area north of Nashville.  Northern half of Mississippi and Alabama near 6 inches with more in NE Alabama.  Northern half of Georgia is 6-10 with with some 1 foot+ lollipops.  Mountains and SE VA 7-12.  Killer run for the Great Valley. 

[tnweathernut]

Add the Euro to the list of models indicating an overrunning setup heading into the late weekend and early next week.  The BIG 1047 High enters the northern plains before hour 120 and the overrunning precip breaks out in west TN around the 156 hour mark. At this point it's a lot closer than fantasy range, yet still too far out to get excited. That said, the Ukie (extrapolated), CMC, and Euro all indicate the possibility of frozen precip in the extended period. 

[JayCee]

The 12z Euro is sexy for day 7.  All of Tennessee is 4 to 6 inches with the exception of a 2 inch area north of Nashville.  Northern half of Mississippi and Alabama near 6 inches with more in NE Alabama.  Northern half of Georgia is 6-10 with with some 1 foot+ lollipops.  Mountains and SE VA 7-12.  Killer run for the Great Valley. 

 

[weathertree4u]

See what tonight's run says that snowfield will likely move around allot between now and then

[JayCee]

See what tonight's run says that snowfield will likely move around allot between now and then

 

Yep, or it might completely disappear.  It happens.    But just the thought of the possibility makes me drool. 

[Carvers Gap]

Add the Euro to the list of models indicating an overrunning setup heading into the late weekend and early next week.  The BIG 1047 High enters the northern plains before hour 120 and the overrunning precip breaks out in west TN around the 156 hour mark. At this point it's a lot closer than fantasy range, yet still too far out to get excited. That said, the Ukie (extrapolated), CMC, and Euro all indicate the possibility of frozen precip in the extended period.

Yep. Have to say that set-up looks good. Still a ways out there, but very glad to see it still on the models. Fits climo. Fits the idea of energy colliding with retreating cold.

[weathertree4u]

Yep, or it might completely disappear. It happens. But just the thought of the possibility makes me drool.

Hey I know. North of Nashville we totally cashed in Jan 22 but the heaviest was supposed to be to our northwest but it changed day of and became a now cast storm

[Carvers Gap]

See what tonight's run says that snowfield will likely move around allot between now and then

Good question. Right now, I just want to see something on the models attacking that retreating air. Looks like the Euro has support for the 12z solutions it has had for the past few days. That is a big positive. What is even better is that the scenarios being shown actually make good weather sense, not just pulling a rabbit out of the hat or having to thread the needle.

[Stovepipe]

The 12z Euro EPS control run and mean look similar to OP.

[tnweathernut]

The 12z Euro EPS control run and mean look similar to OP.

Yeah, if we were at day 4/5 instead of 7/8 I'd feel really good with what the Euro and Ukie is showing today at 12z.

[franklin NCwx]

The 12z Euro EPS control run and mean look similar to OP.

it's been consistent, just have to get it inside 96 hours.

[Daniel Boone]

An overrunning event can be the best heavy snow producers for the great Valley as generally little to no downsloping is prevalent.

[Carvers Gap]

Yeah, if we were at day 4/5 instead of 7/8 I'd feel really good with what the Euro and Ukie is showing today at 12z.

Ditto that. Definitely have to keep in perspective this is still out there but coming into range now. Might be since this has more northern stream energy that it will get sampled earlier up north vs the southern stream systems that have given us only three days so of good data before hitting.

[dwagner88]

The GFS had a good thumping of snow post Valentine's day, but as is so often the case, it is all rain at every TN ASOS I can check on the 18Z.

[Runman292]

How's the Euro tonight looking?

[John1122]

GGEM is a big snow event for a lot of the Valley.

 

The Euro is further north, low from Memphis to Central Carolina's on the 24 hour maps. Heavy snow in Southern Kentucky through 150. Not sure if it'll be too warm for much of Tennessee yet or not on the maps I can access. But the temps over east Tennessee are absolutely frigid. With a major warm nose in the Western half of the state. At hour 150 it's in the upper 30s/low 40s in Southwestern areas. it's in the single digits and 10s in the Eastern Valley.

 

Possible major ice storm incoming for Eastern areas.

[John1122]

The Euro remains all snow over East Tennessee by the look of the 850s and 2m temps. Precip field seems to die out as it works east, I guess it's miller B transferring. Still probably going to show 3-6 over a good bit of the area and just kill NE Georgia and Western NC.

[John1122]

UKMet through 144 is very similar to the Euro. Canadian is similar as well. Right now it's GGEM/Euro/UK vs the GFS. 

[John1122]

The latest WPC day 6 surface pressures map has the LP over Northern Louisiana and by day 7 it's hugging the South Carolina coast. That forecast was issued at around 10 pm, or as of this writing, about 4 hours ago.

[Carvers Gap]

Hey, John1122...thanks for the overnight update.  I know it sounds bad...but if I don't see an update I don't look at the maps until 12z.  So, guess I am going to have to look this AM.  Glad to hear the system is still on the models.

[jaxjagman]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
113 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 12 2016 - 12Z TUE FEB 16 2016

...RECORD COLD FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...

...OVERVIEW...

THE ARCTIC WILL UNLOAD ITS COLD AIR DIRECTLY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE SETTLING INTO A MORE TYPICAL
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AND PERHAPS INTO FLORIDA AS
WELL.

...GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

BIGGEST SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 24-36 HRS HAS BEEN IN
THE PAC NW WHERE THE GEFS WERE FIRST TO CLUE INTO A DIFFERENT
HANDLING OF A N-S ELONGATING TROUGH ALONG 135W AROUND FRIDAY. THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SHIFTED TOWARD THE GEFS SOLUTION BUT MORE
OR LESS MET IN THE MIDDLE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DETACHED CLOSED
LOW WELL SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RATHER THAN OVER THE SW STATES PER SOME EARLIER DETERMINISTIC
RUNS. AS THE DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST LIFTS OUT, THIS WILL LEAVE
ROOM FOR THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE TO FILL IN BEHIND IT AND SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD NEXT MON/TUE. THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT THE GFS REMAINS SLOWER
THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AND NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE PAC
NW SAT/SUN. 12Z/08 CANADIAN WAS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/ENSEMBLES SO
THAT CLUSTER WAS USED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST --
SUN-TUE WHILE A CONSENSUS INCLUDING SOME OF THE GFS WAS USED FOR
THE FRI/SAT FORECAST.

BY NEXT MON/TUE... MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME INTERESTING SOLUTIONS IN
THE EAST... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO MANIFEST
ITSELF MORE FORCEFULLY AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW, WILL STICK WITH A
BROAD ENSEMBLE COMPROMISE AND DEPICTED A PAIR OF SFC LOWS IN THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ROOM TO ADJUST. DEPTH/STRENGTH OF COLD AIR EXITING
THE EAST WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW THINGS PLAY OUT, INCLUDING ANY
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES -- ANOTHER UNKNOWN.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

WEST: AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF 100W SHOULD SEE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING RECORD HIGH
MAXES AND HIGH MINS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS MOST ON WASHINGTON
AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA AS THE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES THROUGH.

EAST: WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE COLD AND COULD BREAK RECORD LOW MAXES BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN
SOME LOCATIONS, DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES JUST PAST MIDNIGHT ON
SATURDAY. COLD AIR WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE AND
WILL ALSO FAVOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE APPALACHIANS UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH. BY NEXT WEEK, FOCUS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD. COLD AIR IS USUALLY LOATHE TO RETREAT AS FAST AS
THE MODELS INDICATE -- ESPECIALLY RECORD COLD -- SO ICING MAY BE
AN ADDITIONAL THREAT DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

FRACASSO

[tnweathernut]

The system for next week has been waxing and waning the last 48+ hours or so. I have noticed the 12z cycles of the euro op runs have been more generous wrt snow amounts and 0z has been less so. Will be interesting to see what 12z does today.

[jaxjagman]

The system for next week has been waxing and waning the last 48+ hours or so. I have noticed the 12z cycles of the euro op runs have been more generous wrt snow amounts and 0z has been less so. Will be interesting to see what 12z does today.

Thought i was the only one to notice this about the euro.If it's right like you say the 12z will come in colder

[Stovepipe]

0z Euro 3-5 inches for eastern half of TN and north GA.  Control and EPS mean cover most of the state in 3-5 with the exception of SW parts that are 1 to 2.

[Carvers Gap]

The system for next week has been waxing and waning the last 48+ hours or so. I have noticed the 12z cycles of the euro op runs have been more generous wrt snow amounts and 0z has been less so. Will be interesting to see what 12z does today.

 

Oh, man.  Put the jinx on the 12z ya'll.  LOL.  Seriously though, this is the first time that 0z Euro has had the storm.  The UKIE and GEM also have it now.  So, definitely will be watching the 12z suite today!

[Carvers Gap]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

113 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 12 2016 - 12Z TUE FEB 16 2016

...RECORD COLD FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...

...OVERVIEW...

BY NEXT MON/TUE... MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME INTERESTING SOLUTIONS IN

THE EAST... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO MANIFEST

ITSELF MORE FORCEFULLY AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW, WILL STICK WITH A

BROAD ENSEMBLE COMPROMISE AND DEPICTED A PAIR OF SFC LOWS IN THE

SOUTHEAST WITH ROOM TO ADJUST. DEPTH/STRENGTH OF COLD AIR EXITING

THE EAST WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW THINGS PLAY OUT, INCLUDING ANY

NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT

LAKES -- ANOTHER UNKNOWN.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

WEST: AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF 100W SHOULD SEE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL

TEMPERATURES WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING RECORD HIGH

MAXES AND HIGH MINS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS MOST ON WASHINGTON

AND INTO NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA AS THE SHORTWAVE

PUSHES THROUGH.

EAST: WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL

APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE

QUITE COLD AND COULD BREAK RECORD LOW MAXES BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN

SOME LOCATIONS, DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES JUST PAST MIDNIGHT ON

SATURDAY. COLD AIR WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE AND

WILL ALSO FAVOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE APPALACHIANS UNTIL THE

SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH. BY NEXT WEEK, FOCUS WILL TURN TO THE

SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHERE PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND

NORTHEASTWARD. COLD AIR IS USUALLY LOATHE TO RETREAT AS FAST AS

THE MODELS INDICATE -- ESPECIALLY RECORD COLD -- SO ICING MAY BE

AN ADDITIONAL THREAT DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

FRACASSO

 

My concern as well.  The UKIE has a 1039 HP sitting just west of NY state as the low slides south of us.  For folks in the eastern Valley that is bad recipe for ice. 

 

Adding to the conversation above, the Euro has had this storm off and on since at least 12z Saturday(maybe Friday?).  Would be a real tribute to modeling it it holds that storm until it verifies.  Modeling is anything but perfect, but that would be impressive.  FWIW, the DC storm was nailed by the Euro a long way out.  Anyway, still a couple of days before I get too excited.  Things can still change.

[franklin NCwx]

Y'all would like the Euro para.

Nut, I have noticed the same with regards to 12z 0z. The 0z Euro ensembles Hanes nice deep negatively tilted trough in the sweet spot for us.

[franklin NCwx]

My concern as well. The UKIE has a 1039 HP sitting just west of NY state as the low slides south of us. For folks in the eastern Valley that is bad recipe for ice.

Adding to the conversation above, the Euro has had this storm off and on since at least 12z Saturday(maybe Friday?). Would be a real tribute to modeling it it holds that storm until it verifies. Modeling is anything but perfect, but that would be impressive. FWIW, the DC storm was nailed by the Euro a long way out. Anyway, still a couple of days before I get too excited. Things can still change.

it's been on the op since last Friday and the ensembles for days before that.

[Carvers Gap]

it's been on the op since last Friday and the ensembles for days before that.

 

Thanks, franklin.  Yep, I was in the mtns on Friday when that 12z Euro rolled.  Remember coming back into town and hearing the news.  Thoughtthat might be the case.  Now that you mention it, JB brought it up last week as being on the ensembles.  He has been beating the drum for some time that a storm might attack the retreating cold.

 

Also, this system is more of a slider from the northern stream.  It shows some downsloping.  Hypothetically, (since this isn't a "for sure" storm yet) the downsloping should be much less as the surface reflection of the low doesn't crank until it slides past.  Would most likely lock the cold into the eastern Valley and fall as ice.  I know the Parallel takes TRI and TYS above freezing, but this is a different set up than last time.  Very strong retreating HP portrayed on several models.